Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at WPG?

The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NSH

NSH

30-28-9

WPG

28-28-11

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesWPG wins series 2-1VegasWPG -130

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	15:09
F. ForsbergLW · #9	1	1	2	5	1	2	4	17:34
E. HaulaLW · #56	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:41
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:42
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	13:07
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	2	2	3	1	0	2	18:12
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	21:59
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	9:38
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	18:15
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	9:58
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:05
M. WoodRW · #71	1	0	2	3	2	0	0	16:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	14:33
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	24:42
R. JosiD · #59	0	1	-2	2	1	1	0	27:36
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	20:18
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	25:14
R. UfkoD · #85	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	11:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	39	3	36	.923	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	14:00
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	3	2	7	1	0	0	25:17
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:37
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	-2	1	5	0	0	7:03
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	9:15
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	17:10
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:33
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	1	1	6	0	1	0	21:05
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:18
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	24:41
J. ToewsC · #19	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:58
G. VilardiC · #13	1	1	2	6	1	1	0	21:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:24
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	22:25
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-1	0	1	3	0	10:06
J. MorrisseyD · #44	1	0	1	2	1	3	0	29:05
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	21:48
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	25:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	23	3	20	.870	63:09

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WPG wins series 2-1

Oct 18

NSH1@

WPG4

Nov 30

WPG5@

NSH2

Mar 18

NSH4@

WPG3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+11048%

WPG-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat WPG 4-3. F. Forsberg led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
NSH	1	1	1	0	1	4
WPG	1	1	1	0	0	3

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · WPG won 0

NSH

WPG

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
NSH 1·WPG 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
NSH 1·WPG 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
NSH 1·WPG 0
SO·0:00
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
NSH 1·WPG 0
SO·0:00
Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 1·WPG 0
SO·0:00
Mark Scheifele Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 1·WPG 0
SO·0:00
Ryan O'Reilly Goal Snap Shot
NSH 1·WPG 0
SO·0:00
Gabriel Vilardi Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 1·WPG 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
NSH 1·WPG 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·4:58
Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Dylan Samberg
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·4:45
Brady Skjei Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·4:42
Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·4:35
Cole Perfetti Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·4:28
Filip Forsberg Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·4:03
Adam Lowry hit Matthew Wood
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·3:37
Matthew Wood faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·3:37
Puck in Netting
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·3:34
Steven Stamkos Slap Shot Hit Right Post
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·3:13
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·3:03
Steven Stamkos hit Kyle Connor
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·2:10
Gabriel Vilardi Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·1:59
Matthew Wood Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·1:35
Matthew Wood faceoff won against Morgan Barron
· ·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·1:35
Goalie Stopped
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·1:33
Mark Scheifele Backhand saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·1:31
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·1:08
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·0:24
Filip Forsberg Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 3·WPG 3
OT·0:15
Adam Lowry shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 3·WPG 3

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·NSH +110/WPG -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 4–3.

NSH +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · WPG favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.9%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.9%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at WPG?: The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Nashville PredatorsWinnipeg Jets

Elsewhere in the NHL