Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3VAN

FLA

33-31-3

VAN

21-38-8

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasFLA -155

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Elias Pettersson

C · #40

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	19:34
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:19
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	-2	4	3	0	0	8:23
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:39
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	-2	0	1	1	12	10:20
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	-2	2	1	0	10	10:32
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	21:05
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	13:16
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:07
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	4	4	1	2	18:29
M. TkachukLW · #19	1	1	1	3	1	0	2	18:18
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	2	1	0	3	0	0	14:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	14:43
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	23:29
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	20:16
S. JonesD · #3	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:16
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	22:28
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	14:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	22	5	17	.773	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	18:43
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	3	1	2	0	0	0	17:33
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	15:19
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	10:29
E. KaneLW · #91	0	1	1	2	0	0	12	13:04
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:35
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	1	0	1	1	0	0	2	14:35
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:14
E. PetterssonC · #40	2	0	-1	4	0	0	0	17:39
A. RatyC · #54	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	11:27
M. RossiC · #93	1	2	1	2	3	0	0	16:59
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	17:12
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	23:47
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:01
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:54
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	1	-1	0	3	3	10	18:23
T. WillanderD · #5	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	20:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	23	2	21	.913	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 18

VAN5@

FLA8

Mar 18

FLA2@

VAN5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-15561%

VAN+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VAN beat FLA 5-2. E. Pettersson led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	1	0	2
VAN	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · VAN won 2

FLA

VAN

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:43
Giveaway by Anton Lundell
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:34
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:34
Elias Pettersson Misconduct
· ·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:34
Evander Kane Misconduct
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:34
Luke Kunin Misconduct
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:34
Vinnie Hinostroza Misconduct
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:34
Goalie Stopped
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:33
Luke Kunin Backhand saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:29
Nolan Foote Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:28
Nolan Foote Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·19:15
Takeaway by Luke Kunin
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·18:41
Dmitry Kulikov Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·17:10
Brock Boeser Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·17:09
Giveaway by Donovan Sebrango
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·16:56
Giveaway by Sam Bennett
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·16:27
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·16:27
Icing
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·15:44
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·15:44
Puck in Netting
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·15:43
Aatu Räty hit Donovan Sebrango
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·15:38
Takeaway by Evander Kane
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·14:31
Giveaway by Marcus Pettersson
· ·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·14:25
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·14:25
Drew O'Connor Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (17), Tom Willander (14)
· ·
FLA 2·VAN 5
3rd·13:59
Elias Pettersson shot blocked by Donovan Sebrango
· ·
FLA 2·VAN 4
3rd·13:50
Brock Boeser shot blocked by Dmitry Kulikov
·
FLA 2·VAN 4
3rd·13:35
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Cole Reinhardt
·
FLA 2·VAN 4
3rd·13:06
Filip Hronek hit Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 2·VAN 4

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA -155/VAN +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ancouver Canucks held off Florida Panthers, 5–2.

VAN +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Brock BoeserVAN · RW
SHOT MPH96.498
Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
iXG34.998
Filip HronekVAN · D
DIST MI292.398
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.8%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
44.4%
P(VAN win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
44.4%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
44.4%
P(VAN win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.