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FINAL+2EDM
SJ

SJ

32-28-6

35
EDM

EDM

34-26-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesEDM leads series 2-1VegasEDM -162

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off San Jose Sharks, 5–3.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Kiefer Sherwood

Kiefer Sherwood

LW · #44

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Adam Henrique

Adam Henrique

C · #19

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
SJ32-28-6EDM34-26-9
SJ

SJ

32-28-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

34-26-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

2

Season series

EDM leads series 2-1

Jan 30SJSJ3@EDMEDM4
Feb 28EDMEDM4@SJSJ5
Mar 18SJSJ3@EDMEDM5today
Apr 9EDMEDM5@SJSJ2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+13642%
EDMEDM-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat SJ 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ1203
EDM3025

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · EDM won 2

1
3

1

2
0

2

0
2

3

SJ
EDM

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  3. 3rd·19:30

    Nick Leddy Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  4. 3rd·19:27

    Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  5. 3rd·19:27

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Vasily Podkolzin Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  7. 3rd·19:17

    Kasperi Kapanen shot blocked by Mario Ferraro

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  8. 3rd·18:50

    Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  9. 3rd·18:47

    Giveaway by Vincent Desharnais

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  10. 3rd·18:38

    Jason Dickinson Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    · ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  11. 3rd·18:11

    Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk

    · ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  12. 3rd·18:11

    Kiefer Sherwood Tripping against Connor McDavid

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  13. 3rd·18:11

    Kiefer Sherwood hit Zach Hyman

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  14. 3rd·18:03

    Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Zach Hyman

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  15. 3rd·17:59

    Macklin Celebrini Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  16. 3rd·17:50

    Pavol Regenda Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  17. 3rd·17:32

    Giveaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  18. 3rd·17:29

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  19. 3rd·17:29

    Timeout - Visitor

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  20. 3rd·17:29

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  21. 3rd·17:27

    Pavol Regenda Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  22. 3rd·17:25

    Giveaway by Connor McDavid

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  23. 3rd·16:55

    William Eklund shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  24. 3rd·16:27

    Takeaway by Alexander Wennberg

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  25. 3rd·16:23

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  26. 3rd·16:23

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  27. 3rd·16:21

    Vasily Podkolzin Backhand saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  28. 3rd·15:52

    Giveaway by Vasily Podkolzin

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  29. 3rd·15:20

    Adam Gaudette Slap Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

  30. 3rd·14:28

    Sam Dickinson Backhand Wide Left

    · ·

    SJ 3·EDM 5

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

30

Shots

37

0.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

2

25

Faceoffs W

30

16

Blocks

8

15

Giveaways

16

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +136/EDM -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Darnell NurseEDM · D
    BURSTS1389
  • Spencer StastneyEDM · D
    BURSTS6788

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR