Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at EDM?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2EDM

32-28-6

EDM

34-26-9

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesEDM leads series 2-1VegasEDM -162

SJ · top performer

Pavol Regenda

LW · #84

1Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Vasily Podkolzin

RW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	22:51
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	15:32
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	11:01
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:51
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:09
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	-3	2	0	1	0	15:32
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	8:56
P. RegendaLW · #84	1	0	3	4	6	1	0	14:26
K. SherwoodLW · #44	1	1	3	2	2	0	2	16:29
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:27
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	-3	3	0	1	0	13:34
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	2	2	18:49
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	21:00
M. FerraroD · #38	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	22:56
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	16:50
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	17:05
D. OrlovD · #9	1	1	0	2	1	1	0	20:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	37	5	32	.865	58:25

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	16:31
T. FredericC · #10	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	7:01
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	10:12
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	0	1	3	0	1	2	22:31
M. JonesLW · #46	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	6:56
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:39
C. McDavidC · #97	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	24:52
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	1	0	-1	3	0	1	0	20:38
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	14:44
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	14:31
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:53
M. SavoieC · #22	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	1	2	3	0	1	0	24:39
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	19:39
C. MurphyD · #5	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:21
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	19:03
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	16:24
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	30	3	27	.900	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM leads series 2-1

Jan 30

SJ3@

EDM4

Feb 28

EDM4@

SJ5

Mar 18

SJ3@

EDM5today

Apr 9

EDM5@

SJ2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+13642%

EDM-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat SJ 5-3. V. Podkolzin led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	2	0	3
EDM	3	0	2	5

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · EDM won 2

EDM

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·19:30
Nick Leddy Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·19:27
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·19:27
Goalie Stopped
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·19:25
Vasily Podkolzin Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·19:17
Kasperi Kapanen shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·18:50
Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Vincent Desharnais
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·18:38
Jason Dickinson Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
· ·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·18:11
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
· ·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·18:11
Kiefer Sherwood Tripping against Connor McDavid
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·18:11
Kiefer Sherwood hit Zach Hyman
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·18:03
Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Zach Hyman
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·17:59
Macklin Celebrini Slap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·17:50
Pavol Regenda Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·17:29
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·17:29
Timeout - Visitor
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·17:29
Goalie Stopped
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·17:27
Pavol Regenda Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·17:25
Giveaway by Connor McDavid
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·16:55
William Eklund shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·16:27
Takeaway by Alexander Wennberg
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·16:23
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·16:23
Goalie Stopped
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·16:21
Vasily Podkolzin Backhand saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Vasily Podkolzin
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·15:20
Adam Gaudette Slap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
SJ 3·EDM 5
3rd·14:28
Sam Dickinson Backhand Wide Left
· ·
SJ 3·EDM 5

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +136/EDM -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off San Jose Sharks, 5–3.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
57.4%
P(EDM win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.4%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.4%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at EDM?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksEdmonton Oilers

Elsewhere in the NHL