Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at CBJ?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CBJ

CAR

42-19-6

CBJ

35-21-11

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -120

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

1Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Charlie Coyle

C · #3

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	17:02
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	3	1	2	2	14:41
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:34
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	0	6	0	5	12:31
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	14:46
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	10:50
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	15:01
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	2	8	16:39
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	13:24
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	14:59
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:29
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	18:44
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	23:25
A. NikishinD · #21	0	1	0	1	2	2	0	19:18
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:09
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	19:56
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-1	1	2	4	0	20:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	30	5	25	.833	59:57

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	1	3	2	4	0	0	0	18:31
A. FantilliC · #19	0	2	-1	1	0	1	0	18:34
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	11:45
D. HeinenLW · #43	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:14
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	16:25
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	14:20
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:36
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	19:15
M. MarchmentLW · #17	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:46
S. MonahanC · #23	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	14:07
M. OlivierRW · #24	1	0	1	4	1	1	5	11:27
C. SillingerC · #4	0	2	2	1	1	2	0	16:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	16:19
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:38
D. MateychukD · #5	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	17:18
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	20:48
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	1	1	1	3	0	20:40
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	1	1	3	0	2	2	22:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 10

CBJ1@

CAR4

Mar 17

CAR1@

CBJ5today

Mar 31

CAR5@

CBJ2

Apr 2

CBJ1@

CAR5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-12055%

CBJ+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat CAR 5-1. C. Coyle led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	0	1	0	1
CBJ	2	2	1	5

Period scoring

CAR won 0 · CBJ won 3

CAR

CBJ

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·19:06
Giveaway by Sean Walker
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·18:54
Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Denton Mateychuk
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·18:18
William Carrier Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·17:37
Adam Fantilli Backhand Wide Right
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·17:34
Giveaway by Andrei Svechnikov
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·17:27
Jalen Chatfield shot blocked by Adam Fantilli
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·17:22
Jaccob Slavin shot blocked by Kirill Marchenko
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·17:13
Jackson Blake Tip-In saved by Jet Greaves
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·17:07
Jackson Blake Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·16:46
Kirill Marchenko Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·16:31
Giveaway by Sean Walker
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·16:18
Cole Sillinger Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·16:10
Giveaway by Taylor Hall
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·16:02
Damon Severson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·16:01
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·16:01
Goalie Stopped
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·15:57
Zach Werenski Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·15:50
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·15:50
Off-side
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·15:36
Giveaway by Isac Lundeström
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·15:23
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·15:23
Off-side
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·15:21
Nicolas Deslauriers hit Mathieu Olivier
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·14:46
Logan Stankoven Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·14:33
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·14:33
Goalie Stopped
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·14:32
Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5
3rd·14:31
Taylor Hall Tip-In saved by Jet Greaves
·
CAR 1·CBJ 5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -120/CBJ +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–1.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Charlie Coyle · CBJ18:300.5261.1%53.6%18:30 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 61.1% CF · 53.6% xGF
Conor Garland · CBJ11:360.3842.9%56.4%11:36 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 42.9% CF · 56.4% xGF
Mathieu Olivier · CBJ11:240.3272.0%83.7%11:24 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 72.0% CF · 83.7% xGF
Logan Stankoven · CAR13:240.3157.1%60.0%13:24 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 57.1% CF · 60.0% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR16:480.3045.7%45.6%16:48 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 45.7% CF · 45.6% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR14:180.2857.9%54.6%14:18 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 57.9% CF · 54.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jet Greaves · CBJ28–1.966+1.8228–1 · .966 SV% · +1.82 GSAx
Brandon Bussi · CAR25–5.833-2.0825–5 · .833 SV% · -2.08 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
51.2%
P(CBJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(CBJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at CBJ?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesColumbus Blue Jackets

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