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FINAL+4CBJ
CAR

CAR

42-19-6

15
CBJ

CBJ

35-21-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -120

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–1.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Nikolaj Ehlers

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

CBJ
Charlie Coyle

Charlie Coyle

C · #3

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
5
CAR42-19-6CBJ35-21-11
CAR

CAR

42-19-6

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CBJ

CBJ

35-21-11

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

PIM

9

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 10CBJCBJ1@CARCAR4
Mar 17CARCAR1@CBJCBJ5today
Mar 31CARCAR5@CBJCBJ2
Apr 2CBJCBJ1@CARCAR5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-12055%
CBJCBJ+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat CAR 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR0101
CBJ2215

Period scoring

CAR won 0 · CBJ won 3

0
2

1

1
2

2

0
1

3

CAR
CBJ

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  3. 3rd·19:06

    Giveaway by Sean Walker

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  4. 3rd·18:54

    Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Denton Mateychuk

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  5. 3rd·18:18

    William Carrier Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  6. 3rd·17:37

    Adam Fantilli Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  7. 3rd·17:34

    Giveaway by Andrei Svechnikov

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  8. 3rd·17:27

    Jalen Chatfield shot blocked by Adam Fantilli

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  9. 3rd·17:22

    Jaccob Slavin shot blocked by Kirill Marchenko

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  10. 3rd·17:13

    Jackson Blake Tip-In saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  11. 3rd·17:07

    Jackson Blake Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  12. 3rd·16:46

    Kirill Marchenko Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  13. 3rd·16:31

    Giveaway by Sean Walker

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  14. 3rd·16:18

    Cole Sillinger Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  15. 3rd·16:10

    Giveaway by Taylor Hall

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  16. 3rd·16:02

    Damon Severson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  17. 3rd·16:01

    Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  18. 3rd·16:01

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  19. 3rd·15:57

    Zach Werenski Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  20. 3rd·15:50

    Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  21. 3rd·15:50

    Off-side

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  22. 3rd·15:36

    Giveaway by Isac Lundeström

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  23. 3rd·15:23

    Boone Jenner faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  24. 3rd·15:23

    Off-side

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  25. 3rd·15:21

    Nicolas Deslauriers hit Mathieu Olivier

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  26. 3rd·14:46

    Logan Stankoven Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  27. 3rd·14:33

    Boone Jenner faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  28. 3rd·14:33

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  29. 3rd·14:32

    Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

  30. 3rd·14:31

    Taylor Hall Tip-In saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CAR 1·CBJ 5

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

29

Shots

30

0.0

PCT

40.0

17

PIM

9

22

Faceoffs W

41

18

Blocks

23

18

Giveaways

17

3

Takeaways

4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -120/CBJ +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
    DIST MI299.999+
  • Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
    BURSTS30199
  • Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
    DIST MI289.198
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Adam FantilliCBJ · C
    DIST MI256.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CBJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR