Mar 4, 26sim 99
161
1(H)2
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1MTL
BOS
37-23-8
23
MTL
37-20-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ontreal Canadiens held off Boston Bruins, 3–2 in overtime.
BOS +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BOS · top performer
Pavel Zacha
C · #18
2Points
2
G
0
A
—
SOG
MTL · top performer
Cole Caufield
RW · #13
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final / OT
BOS37-23-8
23
MTL37-20-10
BOS37-23-8MTL37-20-10
BOS
37-23-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
MTL
37-20-10
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
PIM
8
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Nov 16BOS3@MTL2
BOS3@MTL2Dec 24MTL6@BOS2
MTL6@BOS2Jan 25MTL3@BOS4
MTL3@BOS4Mar 17BOS2@MTL3today
BOS2@MTL3todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MTL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
BOS+13043%MTL-15561%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MTL beat BOS 3-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Period scoring
BOS won 0 · MTL won 1
1
1
1
1
1
2
0
0
3
0
1
OT
BOS
MTL
Play-by-play · 336 plays
period
event
player
- OT·4:38
Game End
BOS 2·MTL 3
- OT·4:38
End of OT
BOS 2·MTL 3
- OT·4:38
Cole Caufield Goal (40) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (56), Lane Hutson (58)
· ·
BOS 2·MTL 3
- OT·4:01
Pavel Zacha Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·3:52
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·3:52
Goalie Stopped
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·3:50
Alexandre Texier Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·3:13
Viktor Arvidsson hit Noah Dobson
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·2:54
Noah Dobson Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·2:46
Ivan Demidov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·2:41
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·2:07
Takeaway by Lane Hutson
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·0:00
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mark Kastelic
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·19:04
Marat Khusnutdinov shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·18:53
Fraser Minten hit Mike Matheson
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·18:49
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·18:49
Goalie Stopped
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·18:47
David Pastrnak Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·17:42
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·17:42
Off-side
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·17:33
Josh Anderson hit Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·17:07
Noah Dobson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·16:59
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·16:59
Goalie Stopped
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·16:56
Kaiden Guhle Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·16:49
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Andrew Peeke
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·16:46
Cole Caufield Backhand Wide Left
·
BOS 2·MTL 2
- 3rd·16:33
Giveaway by David Pastrnak
BOS 2·MTL 2
Team stats
BOS
Away
Stat
MTL
Home
28
Shots
31
25.0
PCT
0.0
2
PIM
8
25
Faceoffs W
28
15
Blocks
12
19
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
6
Betting line
MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +130/MTL -155
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Lane HutsonMTL · DDIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RWBURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · DDIST MI62.999- Cole CaufieldMTL · RWDIST MI56.699
Ivan DemidovMTL · RWDIST MI49.298
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · MTL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MTL vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
144
projections · 120 high confidence
Shots on goal
- David PastrnakBOS3.2± 2.2high
- Cole CaufieldMTL2.8± 1.4high
- Matthew PoitrasBOS2.7± 2.8low
Goals
- Morgan GeekieBOS0.6± 0.9high
- Cole CaufieldMTL0.5± 0.5high
- Alex NewhookMTL0.4± 0.7high
Points
- David PastrnakBOS1.1± 1.1high
- Morgan GeekieBOS0.9± 1.2high
- Cole CaufieldMTL0.9± 0.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands