Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TB

41-21-4

SEA

31-27-9

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesTB leads series 1-0VegasTB -185

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

5Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Bobby McMann

C · #74

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:01
A. CirelliC · #71	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	15:48
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:05
G. GoncalvesC · #93	1	1	0	2	5	0	0	12:58
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	12:07
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	19:39
B. HagelLW · #38	1	3	3	2	0	2	0	17:21
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:25
N. KucherovRW · #86	3	2	3	7	1	0	0	19:49
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:34
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	13:06
B. PointC · #21	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	18:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:27
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	2	4	1	2	17:59
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:14
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:17
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:11
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	1	5	1	1	2	22:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	18	2	16	.889	59:03

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	1	-1	0	0	1	0	18:21
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:55
J. EberleRW · #7	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	18:44
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:53
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:22
J. McCannLW · #19	1	0	-1	1	0	1	0	12:53
B. McMannC · #74	1	0	-1	2	2	0	2	16:58
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	-1	0	9	1	0	9:14
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	-1	0	0	0	5	11:52
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:54
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	14:26
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	15:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:23
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	17:50
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	18:43
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-3	1	0	2	0	18:05
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-4	3	1	1	0	23:11
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	17:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	25	5	20	.800	59:23

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Mar 18

TB6@

SEA2today

Mar 26

SEA4@

TB3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-18565%

SEA+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat SEA 6-2. N. Kucherov led the way — 3 G · 2 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	2	1	3	6
SEA	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

TB won 2 · SEA won 1

SEA

Play-by-play · 282 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:58
Corey Perry Backhand Wide Left
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:48
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:43
Nick Paul Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:32
Nick Paul Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:22
Takeaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:18
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:43
Giveaway by Ryan McDonagh
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:10
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Jacob Melanson
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:09
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:09
Icing
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:01
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:01
Icing
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:53
Corey Perry hit Jacob Melanson
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:42
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Ryan Winterton
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:40
Nick Paul faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:40
Icing
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:20
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:16
Nick Paul faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:16
Objects on Ice
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:16
Nikita Kucherov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (27)
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:09
Vince Dunn Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·17:07
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·17:07
Puck in Netting
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·17:05
Shane Wright Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·16:54
Shane Wright faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·16:54
Brandon Hagel Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (15), Nikita Kucherov (74)
· ·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·16:26
Jamie Oleksiak hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 4·SEA 2
3rd·15:26
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
TB 4·SEA 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -185/SEA +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 6–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.3%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(SEA win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
47.5%
P(SEA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
47.0%
P(SEA win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SEA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Mackie SamoskevichSEA
0.4± 0.5high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL