NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TB

41-21-4

SEA

31-27-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesTB leads series 1-0VegasTB -185

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 6–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

5Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Matty Beniers

C · #10

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TB41-21-4

SEA31-27-9

TB41-21-4SEA31-27-9

41-21-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

SEA

31-27-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Mar 18

TB6@

SEA2today

Mar 26

SEA4@

TB3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-18565%

SEA+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat SEA 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	2	1	3	6
SEA	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

TB won 2 · SEA won 1

SEA

Play-by-play · 282 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:58
Corey Perry Backhand Wide Left
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:48
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:43
Nick Paul Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:32
Nick Paul Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:22
Takeaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:18
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:43
Giveaway by Ryan McDonagh
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:10
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Jacob Melanson
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:09
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:09
Icing
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:01
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:01
Icing
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:53
Corey Perry hit Jacob Melanson
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:42
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Ryan Winterton
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:40
Nick Paul faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:40
Icing
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:20
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:16
Nick Paul faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:16
Objects on Ice
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:16
Nikita Kucherov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (27)
·
TB 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:09
Vince Dunn Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·17:07
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·17:07
Puck in Netting
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·17:05
Shane Wright Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·16:54
Shane Wright faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·16:54
Brandon Hagel Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (15), Nikita Kucherov (74)
· ·
TB 5·SEA 2
3rd·16:26
Jamie Oleksiak hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 4·SEA 2
3rd·15:26
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
TB 4·SEA 2

Team stats

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -185/SEA +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Bobby McMannSEA · C
SKATE MPH24.399
Brandon MontourSEA · D
SHOT MPH101.698
Matty BeniersSEA · C
DIST MI267.798
Jared McCannSEA · LW
SHOT MPH94.496
Jordan EberleSEA · RW
DIST MI236.192

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

SEA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high
Bobby McMannSEA
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands