Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

MIN

39-18-12

CHI

25-30-12

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesMIN leads series 3-0VegasMIN -180

MIN · top performer

Brock Faber

D · #7

3Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Louis Crevier

D · #46

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	20:34
R. FabbriC · #21	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	8:10
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	12:31
R. HartmanRW · #38	1	0	-2	4	1	3	0	18:39
M. JohanssonLW · #90	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	15:56
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	1	-1	6	1	1	0	21:54
M. McCarronC · #47	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	14:19
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:39
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	15:36
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:20
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	14:58
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:50
J. BrodinD · #25	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	20:19
B. FaberD · #7	0	3	0	5	3	1	0	21:48
Q. HughesD · #43	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	27:27
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:24
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	2	0	2	1.000	3:27
F. GustavssonG · #32	24	3	21	.875	59:32

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	2	2	4	1	1	0	23:05
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:50
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:52
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:50
R. GreeneC · #20	1	0	0	4	1	2	0	21:25
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	7:02
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	10:24
A. MangiapaneLW · #26	0	0	-1	0	0	3	2	11:05
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	16:12
F. NazarC · #91	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:48
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	8:52
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	18:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	18:40
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	11:51
W. KaiserD · #44	0	1	2	0	1	1	0	22:59
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	26:29
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	16:52
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	22:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	37	4	33	.892	63:09

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN leads series 3-0

Nov 27

MIN4@

CHI3

Jan 28

CHI3@

MIN4

Mar 17

MIN4@

CHI3today

Mar 19

CHI2@

MIN1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-18064%

CHI+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat CHI 4-3. B. Faber led the way — 3 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MIN	3	0	0	1	4
CHI	1	1	1	0	3

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · CHI won 2

MIN

CHI

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:09
Game End
MIN 4·CHI 3
OT·3:09
End of OT
MIN 4·CHI 3
OT·3:09
Mats Zuccarello Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (29), Brock Faber (32)
· ·
MIN 4·CHI 3
OT·2:30
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
OT·2:12
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
OT·1:49
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
OT·1:40
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
OT·1:07
Ryan Greene Backhand saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
OT·0:20
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
OT·0:00
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MIN 3·CHI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·CHI 3
3rd·19:30
Connor Bedard shot blocked by Jonas Brodin
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
3rd·18:48
Louis Crevier Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
3rd·18:20
Danila Yurov faceoff won against Ryan Donato
·
MIN 3·CHI 3
3rd·18:20
Frank Nazar Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (37), Artyom Levshunov (22)
· ·
MIN 3·CHI 3
3rd·17:44
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·17:39
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Teuvo Teravainen
·
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·17:39
Off-side
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:58
Connor Bedard hit Nico Sturm
·
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:41
Giveaway by Alex Vlasic
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:35
Ryan Greene faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:35
Icing
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:27
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:27
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:25
Sam Rinzel Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:06
Ryan Donato Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:03
Takeaway by Ryan Donato
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·15:19
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
MIN 3·CHI 2
3rd·14:31
Brock Faber hit Tyler Bertuzzi
·
MIN 3·CHI 2

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·MIN -180/CHI +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

CHI +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Kirill Kaprizov · MIN22:060.9458.5%61.4%22:06 TOI · 0.94 iXG · 58.5% CF · 61.4% xGF
Connor Bedard · CHI23:300.5655.6%43.7%23:30 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 55.6% CF · 43.7% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN18:420.5661.1%55.9%18:42 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 61.1% CF · 55.9% xGF
Ryan Donato · CHI13:540.5456.0%81.1%13:54 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 56.0% CF · 81.1% xGF
Ilya Mikheyev · CHI16:240.5246.4%64.0%16:24 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 46.4% CF · 64.0% xGF
Robby Fabbri · MIN8:120.5146.7%55.5%8:12 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 46.7% CF · 55.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Spencer Knight · CHI33–4.892+0.2433–4 · .892 SV% · +0.24 GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt · MIN2–01.000+0.142–0 · 1.000 SV% · +0.14 GSAx
Filip Gustavsson · MIN21–3.875-0.6221–3 · .875 SV% · -0.62 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.4%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
45.4%
P(CHI win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
45.4%
P(CHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
45.4%
P(CHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildChicago Blackhawks

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