Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WSH

PHI

25-21-11

WSH

30-23-7

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -142

PHI · top performer

Noah Cates

LW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Aliaksei Protas

C · #21

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	14:22
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	16:07
N. CatesLW · #27	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	15:10
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-2	1	2	2	0	17:29
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	20:10
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:13
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	7:43
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7:43
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	21:37
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:52
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-3	2	3	3	0	17:28
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	19:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-1	2	1	4	0	22:20
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:08
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	22:25
T. SanheimD · #6	0	1	-1	0	1	2	0	21:59
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	15:29
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	19:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	28	2	26	.929	57:45

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	1	4	2	1	0	17:25
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	13:05
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	16:57
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:41
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	4	3	3	0	17:07
H. LapierreC · #29	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	8:51
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	17:07
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	16:09
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	13:22
A. ProtasC · #21	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:44
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:35
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ChisholmD · #47	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:08
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	24:14
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	20:34
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	21:04
R. SandinD · #38	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	20:01
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	17:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 4

WSH2@

PHI4

Feb 26

PHI1@

WSH3today

Mar 11

WSH1@

PHI4

Mar 31

PHI4@

WSH6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+12045%

WSH-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat PHI 3-1. A. Protas led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	0	0	1	1
WSH	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · WSH won 2

PHI

WSH

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 1·WSH 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 1·WSH 3
3rd·19:34
Connor McMichael faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 1·WSH 3
3rd·19:34
Aliaksei Protas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none
PHI 1·WSH 3
3rd·19:11
Anthony Beauvillier faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·19:11
Timeout - Visitor
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·19:11
Nic Dowd Delaying Game - Puck over glass
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·19:07
Anthony Beauvillier hit Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·18:59
Connor McMichael shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·18:48
Giveaway by Trevor Zegras
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·18:40
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·18:33
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·18:33
Icing
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·18:29
Ryan Leonard Wrist Shot Wide Left
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·18:20
Noah Cates Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·18:07
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:24
Matt Roy hit Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:12
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·16:52
Noah Cates hit Nic Dowd
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·16:34
Anthony Beauvillier faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·16:34
Goalie Stopped
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·16:32
Cam York Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·16:19
Jamie Drysdale Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·16:02
Jamie Drysdale hit Ryan Leonard
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·15:56
Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·15:53
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·15:53
Goalie Stopped
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·15:51
Anthony Beauvillier Backhand saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·15:48
Giveaway by Travis Sanheim
PHI 1·WSH 2
3rd·15:27
Aliaksei Protas hit Nick Seeler
·
PHI 1·WSH 2

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +120/WSH -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Philadelphia Flyers, 3–1.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
60.6%
P(WSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.6%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.6%
P(WSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersWashington Capitals

Elsewhere in the NHL