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FINAL+2WSH
PHI

PHI

25-21-11

13
WSH

WSH

30-23-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -142

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Philadelphia Flyers, 3–1.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bobby Brink

Bobby Brink

RW · #10

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Aliaksei Protas

Aliaksei Protas

C · #21

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
3
PHI25-21-11WSH30-23-7
PHI

PHI

25-21-11

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

30-23-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 4WSHWSH2@PHIPHI4
Feb 26PHIPHI1@WSHWSH3today
Mar 11WSHWSH1@PHIPHI4
Mar 31PHIPHI4@WSHWSH6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+12045%
WSHWSH-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat PHI 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI0011
WSH0123

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · WSH won 2

0
0

1

0
1

2

1
2

3

PHI
WSH

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 1·WSH 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 1·WSH 3

  3. 3rd·19:34

    Connor McMichael faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 3

  4. 3rd·19:34

    Aliaksei Protas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none

    PHI 1·WSH 3

  5. 3rd·19:11

    Anthony Beauvillier faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  6. 3rd·19:11

    Timeout - Visitor

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  7. 3rd·19:11

    Nic Dowd Delaying Game - Puck over glass

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  8. 3rd·19:07

    Anthony Beauvillier hit Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  9. 3rd·18:59

    Connor McMichael shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  10. 3rd·18:48

    Giveaway by Trevor Zegras

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  11. 3rd·18:40

    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  12. 3rd·18:33

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  13. 3rd·18:33

    Icing

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  14. 3rd·18:29

    Ryan Leonard Wrist Shot Wide Left

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  15. 3rd·18:20

    Noah Cates Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  16. 3rd·18:07

    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Travis Sanheim

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  17. 3rd·17:24

    Matt Roy hit Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  18. 3rd·17:12

    Travis Konecny Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  19. 3rd·16:52

    Noah Cates hit Nic Dowd

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  20. 3rd·16:34

    Anthony Beauvillier faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  21. 3rd·16:34

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  22. 3rd·16:32

    Cam York Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  23. 3rd·16:19

    Jamie Drysdale Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  24. 3rd·16:02

    Jamie Drysdale hit Ryan Leonard

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  25. 3rd·15:56

    Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  26. 3rd·15:53

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  27. 3rd·15:53

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  28. 3rd·15:51

    Anthony Beauvillier Backhand saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  29. 3rd·15:48

    Giveaway by Travis Sanheim

    PHI 1·WSH 2

  30. 3rd·15:27

    Aliaksei Protas hit Nick Seeler

    ·

    PHI 1·WSH 2

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

24

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

4

21

Faceoffs W

23

19

Blocks

14

13

Giveaways

16

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +120/WSH -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR