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FINAL+1BUF
BUF

BUF

33-19-6

21
NJ

NJ

28-28-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-1VegasNJ -112

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 2–1.

BUF +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Peyton Krebs

Peyton Krebs

C · #19

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

NJ
Jesper Bratt

Jesper Bratt

LW · #63

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
1
BUF33-19-6NJ28-28-2
BUF

BUF

33-19-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NJ

NJ

28-28-2

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

11

Season series

BUF wins series 2-1

Nov 28NJNJ5@BUFBUF0
Dec 22BUFBUF3@NJNJ1
Feb 26BUFBUF2@NJNJ1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-10852%
NJNJ-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NJ 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF0112
NJ0011

Period scoring

BUF won 1 · NJ won 0

0
0

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

BUF
NJ

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Dawson Mercer Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  4. 3rd·19:35

    Lenni Hameenaho hit Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  5. 3rd·19:32

    Jack Hughes shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  6. 3rd·18:34

    Jesper Bratt hit Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  7. 3rd·18:21

    Connor Brown Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  8. 3rd·18:09

    Jack Hughes shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  9. 3rd·17:45

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  10. 3rd·17:45

    Off-side

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  11. 3rd·17:41

    Giveaway by Peyton Krebs

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  12. 3rd·17:30

    Cody Glass faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  13. 3rd·17:30

    Timo Meier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (25), Jesper Bratt (29)

    · ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  14. 3rd·17:27

    Timo Meier Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  15. 3rd·17:19

    Giveaway by Owen Power

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  16. 3rd·17:16

    Timo Meier Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  17. 3rd·17:06

    Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  18. 3rd·16:59

    Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  19. 3rd·16:45

    Jack Hughes shot blocked by Owen Power

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  20. 3rd·16:16

    Giveaway by Jack Hughes

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  21. 3rd·16:03

    Simon Nemec hit Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  22. 3rd·15:32

    Jack Quinn Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  23. 3rd·15:04

    Arseny Gritsyuk shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  24. 3rd·14:44

    Owen Power Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  25. 3rd·14:41

    Noah Ostlund shot blocked by Lenni Hameenaho

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  26. 3rd·14:21

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  27. 3rd·14:21

    Icing

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  28. 3rd·14:08

    Rasmus Dahlin hit Maksim Tsyplakov

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  29. 3rd·13:40

    Ryan McLeod Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

  30. 3rd·13:33

    Timo Meier hit Bowen Byram

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 0

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

NJ

Home

30

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

9

PIM

11

25

Faceoffs W

29

10

Blocks

13

18

Giveaways

17

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -108/NJ -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Josh NorrisBUF · C
    SKATE MPH22.989
  • Mattias SamuelssonBUF · D
    DIST MI41.088

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR