Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

WPG

23-26-8

VAN

18-33-7

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesWPG leads series 2-0VegasWPG -130

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Evander Kane

LW · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:05
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	0	2	4	1	0	2	22:38
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:11
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:31
A. LowryC · #17	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	12:24
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	13:02
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	14:25
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:39
C. PerfettiC · #91	1	0	0	4	0	1	0	16:15
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	23:16
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:05
G. VilardiC · #13	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	22:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:11
V. HeinolaD · #34	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	13:44
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	20:24
D. SambergD · #54	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	22:05
L. SchennD · #5	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	12:40
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	25:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. ComrieG · #1	23	2	21	.913	61:26

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	17:22
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	19:53
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:07
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:30
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	9:25
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:23
E. KaneLW · #91	1	0	0	4	2	0	2	14:14
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:23
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:36
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	14:05
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	1	-1	0	0	7	0	16:25
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	17:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:30
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	1	4	3	0	0	28:53
P. JosephD · #7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:53
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-1	0	4	3	0	22:44
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	1	3	2	4	0	19:34
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	19:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	28	3	25	.893	61:16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WPG leads series 2-0

Nov 12

WPG5@

VAN3

Feb 26

WPG3@

VAN2today

Mar 8

VAN2@

WPG3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG-13057%

VAN+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat VAN 3-2. K. Connor led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
WPG	1	1	0	1	3
VAN	1	1	0	0	2

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · VAN won 0

WPG

VAN

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:37
Game End
WPG 3·VAN 2
OT·1:37
End of OT
WPG 3·VAN 2
OT·1:37
Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (11), Dylan Samberg (10)
· ·
WPG 3·VAN 2
OT·1:12
Dylan Samberg Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
OT·1:03
Brock Boeser Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
OT·0:52
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
OT·0:37
Mark Scheifele Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
OT·0:00
David Kampf faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·19:52
Adam Lowry faceoff won against David Kampf
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·19:52
Puck in Netting
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·19:51
Cole Perfetti shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·19:23
Conor Garland Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·19:20
Teddy Blueger Snap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:54
David Kampf faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:54
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:51
Alex Iafallo Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:45
Alex Iafallo shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:38
Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:24
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:24
Puck in Netting
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:22
Gabriel Vilardi Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·17:09
Conor Garland Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·16:32
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·16:26
Elias Salomonsson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·16:23
Vladislav Namestnikov shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·16:20
Dylan Samberg shot blocked by Brock Boeser
·
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·16:07
Giveaway by Brock Boeser
WPG 2·VAN 2
3rd·15:42
Zeev Buium shot blocked by Linus Karlsson
·
WPG 2·VAN 2

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 6.5·WPG -130/VAN +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

VAN +1.5 cashed (WPG won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · VAN favored

Elo Static
52.0%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.0%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.0%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsVancouver Canucks

Elsewhere in the NHL