Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

COL

38-9-9

UTA

30-24-4

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesCOL wins series 3-1VegasCOL -120

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:54
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:20
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	1	2	4	1	0	11:48
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-1	1	2	3	0	17:13
P. KellyC · #17	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:21
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:52
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	19:13
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	15:34
M. NecasC · #88	1	1	1	3	0	0	2	18:33
B. NelsonC · #11	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	22:56
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	16:35
V. OlofssonLW · #95	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	11:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	1	2	1	0	2	0	19:06
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	19:03
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	-1	2	0	2	0	22:40
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	16:11
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	2	1	1	1	2	17:50
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	-1	2	0	2	2	21:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	30	2	28	.933	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CooleyC · #92	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:21
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	15:56
D. GuentherRW · #11	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:26
B. HaytonC · #27	0	0	-1	5	2	0	0	16:44
C. KellerRW · #9	0	1	-1	5	0	2	0	22:36
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	11:22
J. McBainC · #22	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	11:45
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:43
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-1	1	0	2	2	22:13
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	14:34
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	8:49
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	11:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	16:46
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	14:17
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	19:43
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:40
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-2	2	2	2	0	17:10
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	0	5	1	1	0	25:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	26	4	22	.846	57:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL wins series 3-1

Oct 10

UTA1@

COL2

Oct 22

COL3@

UTA4

Dec 24

UTA0@

COL1

Feb 26

COL4@

UTA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-12055%

UTA+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat UTA 4-2. M. Necas led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	0	4	0	4
UTA	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

COL won 1 · UTA won 0

COL

UTA

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:51
Martin Necas shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:51
Giveaway by Lawson Crouse
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:35
Jack Drury faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:35
Goalie Stopped
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:34
Logan Cooley Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:18
Nick Schmaltz Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:17
Logan Cooley Slap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:03
Mikhail Sergachev Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:43
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Brett Kulak
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:35
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:35
Goalie Stopped
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:33
Dylan Guenther Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:28
Barrett Hayton hit Brent Burns
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:45
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:45
Timeout - Home
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:45
Off-side
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:31
Sean Durzi Snap Shot Wide Right
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:22
Barrett Hayton Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:13
Martin Necas Slap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:06
Gabriel Landeskog Slap Shot Wide Right
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:33
Cale Makar shot blocked by Kevin Stenlund
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·15:59
Giveaway by Parker Kelly
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·15:44
Parker Kelly faceoff won against Dylan Guenther
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·15:44
Off-side
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·15:15
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·15:15
Nick Schmaltz Tripping against Artturi Lehkonen
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·14:49
Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
COL 4·UTA 2
3rd·14:45
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 4·UTA 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -120/UTA +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 4–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.4%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
51.5%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.5%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.5%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL