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FINAL+2COL
COL

COL

38-9-9

42
UTA

UTA

30-24-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesCOL wins series 3-1VegasCOL -120

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 4–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Parker Kelly

Parker Kelly

C · #17

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
COL38-9-9UTA30-24-4
COL

COL

38-9-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

30-24-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

6

Season series

COL wins series 3-1

Oct 10UTAUTA1@COLCOL2
Oct 22COLCOL3@UTAUTA4
Dec 24UTAUTA0@COLCOL1
Feb 26COLCOL4@UTAUTA2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-12055%
UTAUTA+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat UTA 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL0404
UTA0202

Period scoring

COL won 1 · UTA won 0

0
0

1

4
2

2

0
0

3

COL
UTA

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 4·UTA 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 4·UTA 2

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  4. 3rd·19:51

    Giveaway by Lawson Crouse

    COL 4·UTA 2

  5. 3rd·19:35

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  6. 3rd·19:35

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·UTA 2

  7. 3rd·19:34

    Logan Cooley Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  8. 3rd·19:18

    Nick Schmaltz Snap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  9. 3rd·19:17

    Logan Cooley Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  10. 3rd·19:03

    Mikhail Sergachev Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  11. 3rd·18:43

    Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Brett Kulak

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  12. 3rd·18:35

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  13. 3rd·18:35

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·UTA 2

  14. 3rd·18:33

    Dylan Guenther Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  15. 3rd·18:28

    Barrett Hayton hit Brent Burns

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  16. 3rd·17:45

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  17. 3rd·17:45

    Timeout - Home

    COL 4·UTA 2

  18. 3rd·17:45

    Off-side

    COL 4·UTA 2

  19. 3rd·17:31

    Sean Durzi Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  20. 3rd·17:22

    Barrett Hayton Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  21. 3rd·17:13

    Martin Necas Slap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  22. 3rd·17:06

    Gabriel Landeskog Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  23. 3rd·16:33

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  24. 3rd·15:59

    Giveaway by Parker Kelly

    COL 4·UTA 2

  25. 3rd·15:44

    Parker Kelly faceoff won against Dylan Guenther

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  26. 3rd·15:44

    Off-side

    COL 4·UTA 2

  27. 3rd·15:15

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  28. 3rd·15:15

    Nick Schmaltz Tripping against Artturi Lehkonen

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  29. 3rd·14:49

    Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

  30. 3rd·14:45

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 4·UTA 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

26

Shots

30

33.3

PCT

20.0

10

PIM

6

28

Faceoffs W

43

17

Blocks

15

16

Giveaways

15

7

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -120/UTA +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Sam MalinskiCOL · D
    BURSTS1793

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR