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FINAL+2VGK
VGK

VGK

28-16-14

64
LA

LA

23-20-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesVGK wins series 3-1VegasLA -180

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 6–4.

VGK +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Tanner Laczynski

Tanner Laczynski

C · #28

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

LA · top performer

LA
Quinton Byfield

Quinton Byfield

RW · #55

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
4
VGK28-16-14LA23-20-14
VGK

VGK

28-16-14

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
LA

LA

23-20-14

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

PIM

19

Season series

VGK wins series 3-1

Oct 9LALA6@VGKVGK5
Jan 15VGKVGK3@LALA2
Feb 6LALA1@VGKVGK4
Feb 26VGKVGK6@LALA4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK+15040%
LALA-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat LA 6-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK1056
LA1124

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · LA won 1

1
1

1

0
1

2

5
2

3

VGK
LA

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 6·LA 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 6·LA 4

  3. 3rd·19:32

    Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Kai Uchacz

    ·

    VGK 6·LA 4

  4. 3rd·19:32

    Ivan Barbashev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (28), Brayden McNabb (3)

    · ·

    VGK 6·LA 4

  5. 3rd·19:25

    Tomas Hertl hit Quinton Byfield

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 4

  6. 3rd·19:10

    Jeremy Lauzon shot blocked by Adrian Kempe

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 4

  7. 3rd·18:54

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Anze Kopitar

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 4

  8. 3rd·18:54

    Timeout - Home

    VGK 5·LA 4

  9. 3rd·18:54

    Brandt Clarke Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (27), Andrei Kuzmenko (12)

    · ·

    VGK 5·LA 4

  10. 3rd·18:40

    Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  11. 3rd·18:38

    Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  12. 3rd·18:26

    Brayden McNabb hit Quinton Byfield

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  13. 3rd·18:10

    Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot Wide Right

    VGK 5·LA 3

  14. 3rd·17:45

    Andrei Kuzmenko shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  15. 3rd·17:44

    Takeaway by Andrei Kuzmenko

    VGK 5·LA 3

  16. 3rd·17:43

    Giveaway by Drew Doughty

    VGK 5·LA 3

  17. 3rd·17:09

    Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  18. 3rd·16:27

    Colton Sissons shot blocked by Brandt Clarke

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  19. 3rd·16:25

    Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Colton Sissons

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  20. 3rd·16:21

    Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Jeremy Lauzon

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  21. 3rd·15:59

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Alex Laferriere

    ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  22. 3rd·15:59

    Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Laczynski (5), Braeden Bowman (15)

    · ·

    VGK 5·LA 3

  23. 3rd·15:21

    Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by Joel Edmundson

    ·

    VGK 4·LA 3

  24. 3rd·15:16

    Takeaway by Pavel Dorofeyev

    VGK 4·LA 3

  25. 3rd·15:10

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Anze Kopitar

    ·

    VGK 4·LA 3

  26. 3rd·15:10

    Artemi Panarin Roughing against Jeremy Lauzon

    ·

    VGK 4·LA 3

  27. 3rd·14:40

    Ivan Barbashev faceoff won against Alex Laferriere

    ·

    VGK 4·LA 3

  28. 3rd·14:40

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    VGK 4·LA 3

  29. 3rd·14:38

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Brian Dumoulin

    ·

    VGK 4·LA 3

  30. 3rd·13:50

    Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Brayden McNabb

    ·

    VGK 4·LA 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

LA

Home

25

Shots

19

50.0

PCT

100.0

7

PIM

19

24

Faceoffs W

28

24

Blocks

14

8

Giveaways

13

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK +150/LA -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196
  • Ivan BarbashevVGK · LW
    DIST MI44.194
  • Pavel DorofeyevVGK · RW
    DIST MI41.193
  • Kaedan KorczakVGK · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Brayden McNabbVGK · D
    DIST MI42.789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · LA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR