Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at LA?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2VGK

VGK

28-16-14

23-20-14

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesVGK wins series 3-1VegasLA -180

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Quinton Byfield

RW · #55

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	18:24
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	13:13
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	2	0	1	4	0	1	0	17:29
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	18:58
A. HoltzRW · #26	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	14:10
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	17:12
T. LaczynskiC · #28	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	15:43
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	11:25
B. SaadLW · #20	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:35
C. SissonsC · #10	1	1	0	1	2	3	0	13:23
R. SmithRW · #19	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	15:30
K. UchaczC · #77	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	12:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	23:42
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:15
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	14:42
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	21:13
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	10	2	5	21:30
B. McNabbD · #3	0	2	1	4	2	4	0	21:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	19	4	15	.789	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	10:57
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	2	0	1	4	2	0	0	21:08
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:33
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	7:58
A. KempeRW · #9	1	1	0	4	3	1	0	22:20
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:28
A. KuzmenkoLW · #96	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	13:35
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	-1	3	4	1	0	18:23
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:03
A. PanarinLW · #72	0	2	0	3	0	0	2	21:05
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	0	17	10:34
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	-3	1	2	1	0	12:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	20:12
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	19:21
B. ClarkeD · #92	1	1	-2	1	0	3	0	19:20
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	21:10
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:11
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	-3	0	1	3	0	18:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	24	5	19	.792	56:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK wins series 3-1

Oct 9

LA6@

VGK5

Jan 15

VGK3@

LA2

Feb 6

LA1@

VGK4

Feb 26

VGK6@

LA4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+15040%

LA-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat LA 6-4. P. Dorofeyev led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	0	5	6
LA	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · LA won 1

VGK

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 6·LA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 6·LA 4
3rd·19:32
Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Kai Uchacz
·
VGK 6·LA 4
3rd·19:32
Ivan Barbashev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (28), Brayden McNabb (3)
· ·
VGK 6·LA 4
3rd·19:25
Tomas Hertl hit Quinton Byfield
·
VGK 5·LA 4
3rd·19:10
Jeremy Lauzon shot blocked by Adrian Kempe
·
VGK 5·LA 4
3rd·18:54
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
VGK 5·LA 4
3rd·18:54
Timeout - Home
VGK 5·LA 4
3rd·18:54
Brandt Clarke Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (27), Andrei Kuzmenko (12)
· ·
VGK 5·LA 4
3rd·18:40
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·18:38
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·18:26
Brayden McNabb hit Quinton Byfield
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·18:10
Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot Wide Right
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·17:45
Andrei Kuzmenko shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·17:44
Takeaway by Andrei Kuzmenko
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·17:43
Giveaway by Drew Doughty
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·17:09
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·16:27
Colton Sissons shot blocked by Brandt Clarke
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·16:25
Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Colton Sissons
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·16:21
Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Jeremy Lauzon
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·15:59
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·15:59
Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Laczynski (5), Braeden Bowman (15)
· ·
VGK 5·LA 3
3rd·15:21
Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by Joel Edmundson
·
VGK 4·LA 3
3rd·15:16
Takeaway by Pavel Dorofeyev
VGK 4·LA 3
3rd·15:10
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
VGK 4·LA 3
3rd·15:10
Artemi Panarin Roughing against Jeremy Lauzon
·
VGK 4·LA 3
3rd·14:40
Ivan Barbashev faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
VGK 4·LA 3
3rd·14:40
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VGK 4·LA 3
3rd·14:38
Jeremy Lauzon hit Brian Dumoulin
·
VGK 4·LA 3
3rd·13:50
Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 4·LA 3

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK +150/LA -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 6–4.

VGK +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
54.1%
P(LA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.1%
P(LA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.1%
P(LA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at LA?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsLos Angeles Kings

Elsewhere in the NHL