Live · 3
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FINAL+1ANA
EDM

EDM

28-23-8

56
ANA

ANA

31-23-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -130

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Edmonton Oilers, 6–5.

ANA +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Matt Savoie

Matt Savoie

C · #22

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Leo Carlsson

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
6
EDM28-23-8ANA31-23-3
EDM

EDM

28-23-8

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

31-23-3

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

4

Playoff series

Apr 21ANAANA3@EDMEDM4
Apr 23ANAANA6@EDMEDM4
Apr 25EDMEDM4@ANAANA6
Apr 27EDMEDM3@ANAANA4
Apr 29ANAANA1@EDMEDM4
May 1EDMEDM2@ANAANA5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM-13057%
ANAANA+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat EDM 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
EDM2215
ANA1146

Period scoring

EDM won 2 · ANA won 1

2
1

1

2
1

2

1
4

3

EDM
ANA

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Mattias Ekholm hit Beckett Sennecke

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  4. 3rd·19:43

    Beckett Sennecke Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  5. 3rd·19:41

    Alex Killorn Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  6. 3rd·19:37

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Curtis Lazar

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  7. 3rd·19:37

    Connor McDavid Tripping against Alex Killorn

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  8. 3rd·18:46

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  9. 3rd·18:46

    Cutter Gauthier Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (28), Chris Kreider (13)

    · ·

    EDM 5·ANA 6

  10. 3rd·18:42

    Chris Kreider shot blocked by Jake Walman

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  11. 3rd·18:39

    Giveaway by Darnell Nurse

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  12. 3rd·18:30

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  13. 3rd·18:30

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  14. 3rd·18:29

    Zach Hyman Backhand saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  15. 3rd·18:18

    Giveaway by Connor McDavid

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  16. 3rd·18:03

    Connor McDavid Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  17. 3rd·17:41

    Mason McTavish hit Curtis Lazar

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  18. 3rd·17:21

    Vasily Podkolzin Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  19. 3rd·17:16

    Curtis Lazar faceoff won against Mason McTavish

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  20. 3rd·17:16

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  21. 3rd·17:14

    Andrew Mangiapane Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  22. 3rd·17:11

    Curtis Lazar faceoff won against Mason McTavish

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  23. 3rd·17:11

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  24. 3rd·17:08

    Ty Emberson Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  25. 3rd·17:01

    Jeffrey Viel hit Spencer Stastney

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  26. 3rd·16:47

    Radko Gudas hit Matt Savoie

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  27. 3rd·16:18

    Takeaway by Matt Savoie

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  28. 3rd·15:42

    Alex Killorn Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  29. 3rd·15:17

    Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke

    EDM 5·ANA 5

  30. 3rd·15:15

    Takeaway by Beckett Sennecke

    EDM 5·ANA 5

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

27

Shots

29

50.0

PCT

20.0

10

PIM

4

33

Faceoffs W

24

11

Blocks

15

15

Giveaways

24

5

Takeaways

8

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -130/ANA +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR