Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

EDM

28-23-8

ANA

31-23-3

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -130

EDM · top performer

Matt Savoie

C · #22

3Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	20:35
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	-1	1	6	0	0	11:14
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:42
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	22:17
M. JanmarkC · #13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:30
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	10:13
A. MangiapaneLW · #88	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:16
C. McDavidC · #97	0	2	2	2	1	0	2	22:02
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	20:12
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	1	-1	3	3	0	0	12:18
J. RoslovicC · #28	1	0	-2	2	1	0	2	15:28
M. SavoieC · #22	1	2	0	4	0	1	0	16:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	22:16
M. EkholmD · #14	0	2	1	0	2	3	2	19:30
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	15:34
D. NurseD · #25	0	1	-3	0	0	2	0	21:24
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:51
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-2	0	0	3	0	21:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	4	1	3	.750	12:41
T. JarryG · #35	25	5	20	.800	46:39

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	2	0	4	1	1	0	17:01
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	1	3	0	0	2	15:15
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	11:34
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	1	2	0	4	1	0	9:55
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	-2	4	0	0	0	22:14
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	15:36
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	19:06
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	17:53
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	0	-1	2	4	1	0	16:27
T. TerryRW · #19	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:52
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:18
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	11:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	14:23
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	2	1	2	1	0	22:27
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	20:21
I. MooreD · #74	1	0	0	3	0	4	2	19:21
J. TroubaD · #65	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	19:58
O. ZellwegerD · #51	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	27	5	22	.815	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 21

ANA3@

EDM4

Apr 23

ANA6@

EDM4

Apr 25

EDM4@

ANA6

Apr 27

EDM3@

ANA4

Apr 29

ANA1@

EDM4

May 1

EDM2@

ANA5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM-13057%

ANA+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat EDM 6-5. L. Carlsson led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	2	2	1	5
ANA	1	1	4	6

Period scoring

EDM won 2 · ANA won 1

EDM

ANA

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·19:56
Mattias Ekholm hit Beckett Sennecke
·
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·19:43
Beckett Sennecke Backhand Wide Left
·
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·19:41
Alex Killorn Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·19:37
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Curtis Lazar
·
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·19:37
Connor McDavid Tripping against Alex Killorn
·
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·18:46
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·18:46
Cutter Gauthier Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (28), Chris Kreider (13)
· ·
EDM 5·ANA 6
3rd·18:42
Chris Kreider shot blocked by Jake Walman
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:39
Giveaway by Darnell Nurse
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:30
Tim Washe faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:30
Puck Frozen - Goalie
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:29
Zach Hyman Backhand saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:18
Giveaway by Connor McDavid
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:03
Connor McDavid Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:41
Mason McTavish hit Curtis Lazar
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:21
Vasily Podkolzin Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:16
Curtis Lazar faceoff won against Mason McTavish
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:16
Goalie Stopped
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:14
Andrew Mangiapane Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:11
Curtis Lazar faceoff won against Mason McTavish
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:11
Goalie Stopped
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:08
Ty Emberson Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·17:01
Jeffrey Viel hit Spencer Stastney
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·16:47
Radko Gudas hit Matt Savoie
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·16:18
Takeaway by Matt Savoie
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·15:42
Alex Killorn Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·15:17
Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke
EDM 5·ANA 5
3rd·15:15
Takeaway by Beckett Sennecke
EDM 5·ANA 5

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -130/ANA +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Edmonton Oilers, 6–5.

ANA +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.0%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.0%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.0%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL