Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DAL

SEA

27-21-9

DAL

35-14-9

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-0VegasDAL -170

SEA · top performer

Ryker Evans

D · #41

1Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	18:46
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:41
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	17:58
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-2	0	0	0	2	17:22
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	18:01
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	1	7	1	2	8:53
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	12:16
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	16:08
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:23
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:28
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	12:55
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	24:28
R. EvansD · #41	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:45
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	23:20
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1:24
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	24:31
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	19:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	32	4	28	.875	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:11
N. BastianRW · #11	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:29
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	14:46
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	12:53
M. BourqueC · #22	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	18:13
M. DucheneC · #95	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	17:57
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	1	5	0	4	9:44
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	1	1	0	2	0	5	13:48
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:25
W. JohnstonC · #53	2	0	0	4	3	0	0	19:50
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	22:14
S. SteelC · #18	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	-1	1	4	2	0	14:30
T. HarleyD · #55	0	2	3	2	1	0	2	22:38
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	0	2	0	3	0	25:22
E. LindellD · #23	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	23:25
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:23
A. PetrovicD · #28	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	12:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DeSmithG · #1	19	1	18	.947	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 3-0

Nov 10

SEA1@

DAL2

Nov 27

DAL3@

SEA2

Feb 26

SEA1@

DAL4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+14241%

DAL-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat SEA 4-1. W. Johnston led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	0	0	1	1
DAL	1	3	0	4

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · DAL won 2

SEA

DAL

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·19:22
Jaden Schwartz Tip-In saved by Casey DeSmith
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·19:03
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·18:54
Lian Bichsel hit Jacob Melanson
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·18:54
Jacob Melanson Backhand saved by Casey DeSmith
· ·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·18:40
Nathan Bastian Snap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·18:37
Arttu Hyry hit Adam Larsson
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Matty Beniers
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·17:27
Thomas Harley hit Jordan Eberle
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·17:23
Giveaway by Sam Steel
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·16:54
Giveaway by Nils Lundkvist
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·16:43
Adam Erne hit Shane Wright
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·16:22
Takeaway by Adam Erne
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·16:15
Ryan Winterton hit Nils Lundkvist
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·16:13
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Berkly Catton
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·16:13
Puck in Netting
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·15:43
Adam Larsson Slap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·15:40
Eeli Tolvanen Snap Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·15:15
Giveaway by Jaden Schwartz
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·15:11
Lian Bichsel hit Jaden Schwartz
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·15:08
Jaden Schwartz Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·15:06
Nathan Bastian hit Eeli Tolvanen
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·15:00
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·15:00
Goalie Puck Frozen - played from beyond center
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·14:56
Arttu Hyry Backhand saved by Joey Daccord
· ·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·14:35
Giveaway by Shane Wright
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·14:25
Sam Steel Backhand Wide Left
· ·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·14:17
Jamie Benn hit Vince Dunn
·
SEA 1·DAL 4
3rd·13:28
Berkly Catton Backhand Wide Right
· ·
SEA 1·DAL 4

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·SEA +142/DAL -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Seattle Kraken, 4–1.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
63.0%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.0%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.0%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Seattle KrakenDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL