Live · 2
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FINAL+3DAL
SEA

SEA

27-21-9

14
DAL

DAL

35-14-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-0VegasDAL -170

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Seattle Kraken, 4–1.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Matty Beniers

Matty Beniers

C · #10

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Matt Duchene

Matt Duchene

C · #95

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
SEA27-21-9DAL35-14-9
SEA

SEA

27-21-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

35-14-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

PIM

15

Season series

DAL wins series 3-0

Nov 10SEASEA1@DALDAL2
Nov 27DALDAL3@SEASEA2
Feb 26SEASEA1@DALDAL4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA+14241%
DALDAL-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat SEA 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SEA0011
DAL1304

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · DAL won 2

0
1

1

0
3

2

1
0

3

SEA
DAL

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  3. 3rd·19:22

    Jaden Schwartz Tip-In saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  4. 3rd·19:03

    Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  5. 3rd·18:54

    Lian Bichsel hit Jacob Melanson

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  6. 3rd·18:54

    Jacob Melanson Backhand saved by Casey DeSmith

    · ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  7. 3rd·18:40

    Nathan Bastian Snap Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  8. 3rd·18:37

    Arttu Hyry hit Adam Larsson

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  9. 3rd·17:41

    Giveaway by Matty Beniers

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  10. 3rd·17:27

    Thomas Harley hit Jordan Eberle

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  11. 3rd·17:23

    Giveaway by Sam Steel

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  12. 3rd·16:54

    Giveaway by Nils Lundkvist

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  13. 3rd·16:43

    Adam Erne hit Shane Wright

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  14. 3rd·16:22

    Takeaway by Adam Erne

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  15. 3rd·16:15

    Ryan Winterton hit Nils Lundkvist

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  16. 3rd·16:13

    Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Berkly Catton

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  17. 3rd·16:13

    Puck in Netting

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  18. 3rd·15:43

    Adam Larsson Slap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  19. 3rd·15:40

    Eeli Tolvanen Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  20. 3rd·15:15

    Giveaway by Jaden Schwartz

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  21. 3rd·15:11

    Lian Bichsel hit Jaden Schwartz

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  22. 3rd·15:08

    Jaden Schwartz Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  23. 3rd·15:06

    Nathan Bastian hit Eeli Tolvanen

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  24. 3rd·15:00

    Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  25. 3rd·15:00

    Goalie Puck Frozen - played from beyond center

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  26. 3rd·14:56

    Arttu Hyry Backhand saved by Joey Daccord

    · ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  27. 3rd·14:35

    Giveaway by Shane Wright

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  28. 3rd·14:25

    Sam Steel Backhand Wide Left

    · ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  29. 3rd·14:17

    Jamie Benn hit Vince Dunn

    ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

  30. 3rd·13:28

    Berkly Catton Backhand Wide Right

    · ·

    SEA 1·DAL 4

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

19

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

33.3

13

PIM

15

23

Faceoffs W

31

12

Blocks

11

20

Giveaways

18

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·SEA +142/DAL -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Brandon MontourSEA · D
    SHOT MPH101.698
  • Matty BeniersSEA · C
    DIST MI267.798
  • Jared McCannSEA · LW
    SHOT MPH94.496
  • Jordan EberleSEA · RW
    DIST MI236.192
  • Ryker EvansSEA · D
    SKATE MPH23.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

DAL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 141 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    3.9± 2.0high
  • Bobby McMannSEA
    3.0± 1.8high
  • Brandon MontourSEA
    3.0± 1.3high

Goals

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Mavrik BourqueDAL
    0.4± 1.0high

Points

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Matt DucheneDAL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Mikko RantanenDAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR