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FINAL+1CGY
EDM

EDM

28-22-8

34
CGY

CGY

23-27-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesCGY wins series 3-1VegasEDM -148

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Edmonton Oilers, 4–3.

CGY +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Matvei Gridin

Matvei Gridin

RW · #92

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
EDM28-22-8CGY23-27-6
EDM

EDM

28-22-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

23-27-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

PIM

15

Season series

CGY wins series 3-1

Oct 9CGYCGY4@EDMEDM3
Dec 24CGYCGY1@EDMEDM5
Dec 28EDMEDM2@CGYCGY3
Feb 5EDMEDM3@CGYCGY4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM-14860%
CGYCGY+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat EDM 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
EDM1113
CGY2114

Period scoring

EDM won 0 · CGY won 1

1
2

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

EDM
CGY

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  3. 3rd·19:44

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  4. 3rd·19:44

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  5. 3rd·19:42

    Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  6. 3rd·19:32

    Yegor Sharangovich Wrist Shot Wide Right

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  7. 3rd·19:28

    Giveaway by Evan Bouchard

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  8. 3rd·19:21

    Giveaway by Mikael Backlund

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  9. 3rd·19:14

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  10. 3rd·19:14

    Icing

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  11. 3rd·19:01

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  12. 3rd·19:01

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  13. 3rd·19:00

    Leon Draisaitl Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  14. 3rd·17:54

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Jack Roslovic

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  15. 3rd·17:54

    Icing

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  16. 3rd·17:18

    Mattias Ekholm Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  17. 3rd·17:04

    Mikael Backlund Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  18. 3rd·17:03

    Mikael Backlund Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  19. 3rd·17:02

    Yegor Sharangovich shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  20. 3rd·16:50

    Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  21. 3rd·16:32

    Yegor Sharangovich Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  22. 3rd·16:29

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  23. 3rd·16:29

    Off-side

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  24. 3rd·15:56

    Morgan Frost hit Ty Emberson

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  25. 3rd·15:47

    Jonathan Huberdeau faceoff won against Jack Roslovic

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  26. 3rd·15:47

    Puck in Crowd

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  27. 3rd·15:30

    Giveaway by Evan Bouchard

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  28. 3rd·14:23

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  29. 3rd·14:23

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    EDM 3·CGY 4

  30. 3rd·13:49

    Giveaway by Josh Samanski

    EDM 3·CGY 4

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

39

Shots

25

50.0

PCT

66.7

13

PIM

15

30

Faceoffs W

20

11

Blocks

13

7

Giveaways

20

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -148/CGY +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR