Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

EDM

28-22-8

CGY

23-27-6

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesCGY wins series 3-1VegasEDM -148

EDM · top performer

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

2Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Matvei Gridin

RW · #92

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DraisaitlC · #29	2	0	1	5	0	0	0	25:27
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	23:41
M. JanmarkC · #13	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	5:32
K. KapanenRW · #42	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:39
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	4:24
A. MangiapaneLW · #88	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	7:39
C. McDavidC · #97	0	1	0	8	0	0	0	26:30
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	1	-1	2	0	0	2	22:50
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:35
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:12
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	9:23
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	10:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	3	1	2	0	2	2	26:25
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	21:12
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-1	0	1	1	5	12:50
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-1	5	2	3	0	21:50
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	12:33
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. JarryG · #35	25	4	21	.840	58:32

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:05
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	16:36
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:44
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:29
M. GridinRW · #92	1	1	0	3	0	1	0	12:39
J. HuberdeauLW · #10	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	15:39
N. KadriC · #91	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	18:02
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	9:53
R. LombergLW · #70	1	0	1	1	4	0	2	7:48
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	6:45
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:56
C. ZaryC · #47	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	26:36
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	1	7	9:04
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	1	1	2	4	0	21:33
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:18
M. WeegarD · #52	0	2	0	2	4	2	2	22:14
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	2	2	1	1	2	0	24:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	39	3	36	.923	59:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CGY wins series 3-1

Oct 9

CGY4@

EDM3

Dec 24

CGY1@

EDM5

Dec 28

EDM2@

CGY3

Feb 5

EDM3@

CGY4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM-14860%

CGY+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat EDM 4-3. M. Gridin led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	1	1	1	3
CGY	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

EDM won 0 · CGY won 1

EDM

CGY

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:44
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:44
Goalie Stopped
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:42
Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:32
Yegor Sharangovich Wrist Shot Wide Right
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:28
Giveaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:21
Giveaway by Mikael Backlund
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:14
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:14
Icing
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:01
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:01
Goalie Stopped
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·19:00
Leon Draisaitl Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·17:54
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Jack Roslovic
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·17:54
Icing
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·17:18
Mattias Ekholm Slap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·17:04
Mikael Backlund Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·17:03
Mikael Backlund Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·17:02
Yegor Sharangovich shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:50
Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:32
Yegor Sharangovich Tip-In Wide Right
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:29
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:29
Off-side
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:56
Morgan Frost hit Ty Emberson
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:47
Jonathan Huberdeau faceoff won against Jack Roslovic
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:47
Puck in Crowd
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:30
Giveaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·14:23
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·14:23
Puck Frozen - Skater
EDM 3·CGY 4
3rd·13:49
Giveaway by Josh Samanski
EDM 3·CGY 4

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -148/CGY +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Edmonton Oilers, 4–3.

CGY +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(CGY win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersCalgary Flames

Elsewhere in the NHL