NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

MTL

32-17-8

WPG

22-26-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesMTL wins series 2-0VegasWPG -130

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 5–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

Josh Anderson

RW · #17

3Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MTL32-17-8

WPG22-26-8

MTL32-17-8WPG22-26-8

MTL

32-17-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

WPG

22-26-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

MTL wins series 2-0

Dec 4

WPG2@

MTL3

Feb 5

MTL5@

WPG1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+11048%

WPG-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat WPG 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	2	2	5
WPG	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · WPG won 0

MTL

WPG

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 5·WPG 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 5·WPG 1
3rd·19:46
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
MTL 5·WPG 1
3rd·19:46
Phillip Danault Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (8), Noah Dobson (28)
· ·
MTL 5·WPG 1
3rd·19:41
Blocked Shot
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:37
Cole Perfetti shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:34
Takeaway by Mike Matheson
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:17
Phillip Danault Snap Shot Wide Left
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:57
Mike Matheson Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:57
Giveaway by Kyle Connor
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:40
Gabriel Vilardi Tip-In Wide Left
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:12
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:12
Timeout - Home
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:12
Brendan Gallagher Tripping against Logan Stanley
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:07
Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:02
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:02
Icing
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:57
Josh Anderson Backhand Wide Right
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:55
Noah Dobson hit Vladislav Namestnikov
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:45
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:45
Icing
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:33
Giveaway by Logan Stanley
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Noah Dobson
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Brendan Gallagher
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:58
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:58
Goalie Stopped
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:56
Kyle Connor Slap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:52
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Joseph Veleno
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:52
Icing
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:43
Nino Niederreiter Slap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 4·WPG 1

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +110/WPG -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
DIST MI293.099+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
SKATE MPH24.299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WPG win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WPG win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WPG win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

WPG vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Kyle ConnorWPG
3.7± 1.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL
2.4± 1.6high

Goals

Kyle ConnorWPG
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Mark ScheifeleWPG
1.4± 1.2high
Kyle ConnorWPG
1.0± 0.9high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands