Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at WPG?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

MTL

32-17-8

WPG

22-26-8

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesMTL wins series 2-0VegasWPG -130

MTL · top performer

Josh Anderson

RW · #17

3Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	1	2	3	3	1	0	2	15:21
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	11:07
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	15:27
K. DachC · #77	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	15:17
P. DanaultC · #24	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	15:18
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:11
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:25
B. GallagherRW · #11	1	2	2	1	2	0	2	12:38
O. KapanenC · #91	1	0	2	4	1	1	0	13:44
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	17:21
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:56
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	12:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:22
N. DobsonD · #53	0	2	2	1	2	1	0	21:31
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	20:47
L. HutsonD · #48	1	0	2	1	0	2	0	21:02
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	24:50
J. StrubleD · #47	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	12:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MontembeaultG · #35	37	1	36	.973	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:58
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	0	-2	6	1	0	0	24:10
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	11:04
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:18
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	15:06
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	0	-1	4	0	2	0	14:14
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	14:04
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:45
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-2	5	1	0	0	20:06
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	23:43
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	14:42
G. VilardiC · #13	0	1	-2	2	0	2	0	20:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	19:44
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	-3	2	0	1	2	27:12
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	17:34
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	-1	4	2	3	0	20:29
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	12:32
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	16:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	26	4	22	.846	54:30

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MTL wins series 2-0

Dec 4

WPG2@

MTL3

Feb 5

MTL5@

WPG1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+11048%

WPG-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat WPG 5-1. J. Anderson led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	2	2	5
WPG	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · WPG won 0

MTL

WPG

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 5·WPG 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 5·WPG 1
3rd·19:46
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
MTL 5·WPG 1
3rd·19:46
Phillip Danault Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (8), Noah Dobson (28)
· ·
MTL 5·WPG 1
3rd·19:41
Blocked Shot
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:37
Cole Perfetti shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:34
Takeaway by Mike Matheson
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:17
Phillip Danault Snap Shot Wide Left
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:57
Mike Matheson Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:57
Giveaway by Kyle Connor
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:40
Gabriel Vilardi Tip-In Wide Left
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:12
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:12
Timeout - Home
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:12
Brendan Gallagher Tripping against Logan Stanley
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:07
Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:02
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:02
Icing
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:57
Josh Anderson Backhand Wide Right
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:55
Noah Dobson hit Vladislav Namestnikov
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:45
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:45
Icing
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:33
Giveaway by Logan Stanley
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Noah Dobson
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Brendan Gallagher
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:58
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:58
Goalie Stopped
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:56
Kyle Connor Slap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:52
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Joseph Veleno
·
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:52
Icing
MTL 4·WPG 1
3rd·16:43
Nino Niederreiter Slap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 4·WPG 1

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +110/WPG -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 5–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
49.1%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.1%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.1%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at WPG?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensWinnipeg Jets

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