Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+2COL
SJ

SJ

27-24-4

24
COL

COL

37-9-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -298

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off San Jose Sharks, 4–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Philipp Kurashev

Philipp Kurashev

C · #96

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Valeri Nichushkin

Valeri Nichushkin

RW · #13

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
SJ27-24-4COL37-9-9
SJ

SJ

27-24-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

37-9-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Season series

COL wins series 2-1

Nov 1COLCOL2@SJSJ3
Nov 27SJSJ0@COLCOL6
Feb 5SJSJ2@COLCOL4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+24029%
COLCOL-29875%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat SJ 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ0022
COL0224

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · COL won 1

0
0

1

0
2

2

2
2

3

SJ
COL

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 2·COL 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 2·COL 4

  3. 3rd·19:11

    Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 4

  4. 3rd·19:11

    On-Ice Official

    SJ 2·COL 4

  5. 3rd·18:56

    Giveaway by Brent Burns

    SJ 2·COL 4

  6. 3rd·18:52

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 4

  7. 3rd·18:51

    Giveaway by Shakir Mukhamadullin

    SJ 2·COL 4

  8. 3rd·18:43

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 4

  9. 3rd·18:43

    Brock Nelson Goal (29) Backhand, assists: none

    SJ 2·COL 4

  10. 3rd·18:28

    Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  11. 3rd·18:26

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  12. 3rd·18:26

    Icing

    SJ 2·COL 3

  13. 3rd·18:18

    Brock Nelson hit Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  14. 3rd·18:04

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  15. 3rd·18:04

    High Stick

    SJ 2·COL 3

  16. 3rd·18:00

    Brock Nelson shot blocked by Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  17. 3rd·17:53

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  18. 3rd·17:53

    Icing

    SJ 2·COL 3

  19. 3rd·17:48

    Cale Makar Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  20. 3rd·17:46

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  21. 3rd·17:46

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 2·COL 3

  22. 3rd·17:44

    Macklin Celebrini Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  23. 3rd·17:42

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  24. 3rd·17:42

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 2·COL 3

  25. 3rd·17:40

    Alexander Wennberg Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  26. 3rd·17:24

    Giveaway by Philipp Kurashev

    SJ 2·COL 3

  27. 3rd·16:55

    Ross Colton shot blocked by Shakir Mukhamadullin

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  28. 3rd·15:52

    Takeaway by Timothy Liljegren

    SJ 2·COL 3

  29. 3rd·15:36

    Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    SJ 2·COL 3

  30. 3rd·15:19

    Giveaway by Brent Burns

    SJ 2·COL 3

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

COL

Home

25

Shots

42

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

8

22

Faceoffs W

34

21

Blocks

5

23

Giveaways

12

5

Takeaways

7

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +240/COL -298

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Sam MalinskiCOL · D
    BURSTS1793

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+240

Close price

+240

Open no-vig

28.2%

Close no-vig

28.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR