Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at COL?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

27-24-4

COL

37-9-9

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -298

SJ · top performer

Philipp Kurashev

C · #96

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Artturi Lehkonen

LW · #62

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	-1	2	0	2	2	20:14
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-3	2	2	1	0	19:26
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:39
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	9:42
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:22
P. KurashevC · #96	1	0	2	2	0	0	2	17:09
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	11:30
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:16
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	0	1	4	1	2	17:39
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:41
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:59
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	20:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	16:48
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	20:12
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	1	-3	0	3	3	0	19:13
T. LiljegrenD · #37	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	20:08
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	15:09
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	19:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	41	3	38	.927	59:12

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	4:18
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:49
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	14:33
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:20
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	-2	3	2	0	2	16:11
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	-2	1	3	2	0	13:11
A. LehkonenLW · #62	2	0	2	5	1	0	0	17:35
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	2	4	4	1	0	0	23:01
T. MakarLW · #16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:25
B. NelsonC · #11	1	0	1	5	1	0	2	21:43
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	3	4	2	3	1	0	20:44
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	1	4	1	1	2	18:35
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:32
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	24:51
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:42
J. MansonD · #42	1	0	2	4	0	1	0	18:28
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	25:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	25	2	23	.920	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL wins series 2-1

Nov 1

COL2@

SJ3

Nov 27

SJ0@

COL6

Feb 5

SJ2@

COL4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+24029%

COL-29875%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat SJ 4-2. A. Lehkonen led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	0	0	2	2
COL	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · COL won 1

COL

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·19:11
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·19:11
On-Ice Official
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·18:56
Giveaway by Brent Burns
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·18:52
Brent Burns shot blocked by Zack Ostapchuk
·
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·18:51
Giveaway by Shakir Mukhamadullin
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·18:43
Jack Drury faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·18:43
Brock Nelson Goal (29) Backhand, assists: none
SJ 2·COL 4
3rd·18:28
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·18:26
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·18:26
Icing
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·18:18
Brock Nelson hit Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·18:04
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·18:04
High Stick
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·18:00
Brock Nelson shot blocked by Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:53
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:53
Icing
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:48
Cale Makar Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:46
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:46
Goalie Stopped
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:44
Macklin Celebrini Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:42
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:42
Goalie Stopped
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:40
Alexander Wennberg Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·17:24
Giveaway by Philipp Kurashev
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·16:55
Ross Colton shot blocked by Shakir Mukhamadullin
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·15:52
Takeaway by Timothy Liljegren
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·15:36
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 2·COL 3
3rd·15:19
Giveaway by Brent Burns
SJ 2·COL 3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +240/COL -298

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off San Jose Sharks, 4–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
65.2%
P(COL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.2%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.2%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+240

Close price

+240

Open no-vig

28.2%

Close no-vig

28.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at COL?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

San Jose SharksColorado Avalanche

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