Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

STL

20-28-9

DAL

34-14-9

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-1VegasDAL -218

STL · top performer

Jordan Kyrou

RW · #25

2Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Jamie Benn

LW · #14

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:26
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	13:53
R. FabbriC · #9	0	0	0	0	6	0	2	13:27
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	19:16
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	19:07
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	16:11
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	18:11
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	-3	0	4	0	0	13:33
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	18:59
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	1	0	0	3	0	1	0	12:47
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	13:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	22:44
J. FaulkD · #72	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	20:40
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:39
M. KesselD · #51	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	7:49
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:09
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	-4	0	2	2	0	17:56
T. TuckerD · #75	0	1	1	2	2	0	2	13:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	28	5	23	.821	59:37

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:03
J. BennLW · #14	2	1	1	2	2	0	0	12:34
M. BourqueC · #22	1	0	1	2	5	1	0	16:15
M. DucheneC · #95	1	1	1	3	1	1	0	16:19
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	11:39
R. FaksaC · #12	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	15:10
R. HintzC · #24	0	1	0	5	2	1	2	15:08
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	10:44
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	16:42
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	1	0	1	0	0	4	16:49
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	19:35
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CapobiancoD · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:17
T. HarleyD · #55	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	20:27
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	2	1	2	1	3	2	25:20
E. LindellD · #23	0	1	1	0	1	5	0	25:15
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	14:07
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	15:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	18	4	14	.778	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 3-1

Oct 18

DAL1@

STL3

Jan 24

STL2@

DAL3

Jan 28

DAL4@

STL3

Feb 5

STL4@

DAL5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+18036%

DAL-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat STL 5-4. J. Benn led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	2	0	2	4
DAL	1	3	1	5

Period scoring

STL won 2 · DAL won 1

STL

DAL

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 4·DAL 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:50
Mavrik Bourque hit Brayden Schenn
·
STL 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:37
Mavrik Bourque faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
STL 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:37
Jamie Benn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (39)
·
STL 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:27
Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·19:10
Pius Suter faceoff won against Jamie Benn
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·19:10
Goalie Stopped
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·19:08
Thomas Harley Backhand saved by Jordan Binnington
· ·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·17:53
Robby Fabbri hit Esa Lindell
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·17:49
Dalibor Dvorsky Backhand saved by Jake Oettinger
· ·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·17:44
Miro Heiskanen hit Logan Mailloux
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·17:32
Cam Fowler shot blocked by Mavrik Bourque
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·17:10
Jimmy Snuggerud Snap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·16:51
Giveaway by Sam Steel
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·16:45
Jordan Kyrou Snap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·16:35
Matt Duchene Snap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·15:49
Oskar Sundqvist hit Kyle Capobianco
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·15:31
Radek Faksa faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·15:31
Alexey Toropchenko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (16), Jimmy Snuggerud (14)
· ·
STL 4·DAL 4
3rd·15:21
Giveaway by Justin Hryckowian
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·13:51
Colton Parayko hit Sam Steel
·
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·13:43
Giveaway by Robby Fabbri
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·12:36
Adam Erne Snap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·12:04
Giveaway by Jordan Kyrou
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·11:57
Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·11:17
Mavrik Bourque hit Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·11:10
Giveaway by Brayden Schenn
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·11:05
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque
·
STL 3·DAL 4
3rd·11:05
Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none
STL 3·DAL 4

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +180/DAL -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off St. Louis Blues, 5–4.

STL +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.7%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
69.7%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.7%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
69.7%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-218

Close price

-218

Open no-vig

65.7%

Close no-vig

65.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL