Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at LA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SEA

SEA

27-20-9

23-18-14

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesSEA leads series 3-0VegasLA -175

SEA · top performer

Shane Wright

C · #51

2Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Andrei Kuzmenko

LW · #96

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19:41
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	18:23
O. Fisker MolgaardC · #78	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6:42
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	18:16
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	12:19
T. KartyeLW · #12	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	7:43
J. McCannLW · #19	0	1	0	3	1	1	0	19:03
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	6:25
C. StephensonC · #9	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	22:23
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	1	3	4	0	0	18:38
R. WintertonC · #26	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	14:01
S. WrightC · #51	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	1	0	1	4	0	0	2	19:50
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	14:42
A. LarssonD · #6	1	0	1	1	1	5	0	21:14
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	17:56
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	22:19
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	16:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	27	2	25	.926	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	13:48
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	20:21
K. FialaLW · #22	0	2	0	3	2	1	0	20:23
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	8:29
A. KempeRW · #9	0	1	-1	4	1	0	6	18:39
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:43
A. KuzmenkoLW · #96	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:57
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	-1	2	5	2	0	14:15
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	-1	1	4	2	2	7:48
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	14:44
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	13:00
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	7:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	17:30
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	1	-1	1	1	0	4	22:05
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	24:32
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:42
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	17:56
J. MoverareD · #43	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	23	4	19	.826	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA leads series 3-0

Dec 11

LA2@

SEA3

Dec 24

SEA3@

LA2

Feb 5

SEA4@

LA2today

Apr 14

LA5@

SEA3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+14541%

LA-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat LA 4-2. S. Wright led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	3	0	1	4
LA	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · LA won 1

SEA

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:57
Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Adam Larsson
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:54
Drew Doughty shot blocked by Adam Larsson
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:42
Takeaway by Adrian Kempe
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:36
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:36
Goalie Stopped
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:33
Joel Edmundson Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:31
Joel Armia Slap Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:05
Jared McCann Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·19:00
Joel Edmundson shot blocked by Matty Beniers
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·18:56
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Jordan Eberle
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·18:08
Eeli Tolvanen Backhand Wide Right
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·18:07
Vince Dunn Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·17:59
Giveaway by Vince Dunn
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·17:50
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·17:50
Off-side
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·16:17
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·16:17
Goalie Stopped
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·16:16
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·16:04
Matty Beniers Slap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·15:46
Giveaway by Darcy Kuemper
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·15:39
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·15:39
Adrian Kempe High-sticking - double minor against Adam Larsson
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·15:17
Trevor Moore Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·14:52
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·14:52
Goalie Stopped
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·14:50
Brandon Montour Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·14:38
Ryan Winterton hit Adrian Kempe
·
SEA 4·LA 2
3rd·14:32
Shane Wright faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
SEA 4·LA 2

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·SEA +145/LA -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 4–2.

SEA +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
55.4%
P(LA win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.4%
P(LA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
55.6%
P(LA win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at LA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

LA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex LaferriereLA
3.0± 1.6high
Quinton ByfieldLA
3.0± 2.2high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high

Goals

Adrian KempeLA
0.5± 0.7high
Quinton ByfieldLA
0.4± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichSEA
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Mats ZuccarelloLA
1.1± 1.1high
Alex LaferriereLA
0.8± 0.8high
Artemi PanarinLA
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle KrakenLos Angeles Kings

Elsewhere in the NHL