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FINAL+1MIN
MIN

MIN

34-14-10

65
NSH

NSH

26-23-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-1VegasMIN -125

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 6–5 in overtime.

NSH +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Boldy

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

4Points

3

G

1

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Ryan O'Reilly

Ryan O'Reilly

C · #90

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
6
5
MIN34-14-10NSH26-23-7
MIN

MIN

34-14-10

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

26-23-7

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

9

Season series

MIN leads series 2-1

Nov 5NSHNSH2@MINMIN3
Dec 24NSHNSH3@MINMIN2
Feb 5MINMIN6@NSHNSH5today
Apr 11MINMIN1@NSHNSH2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN-12556%
NSHNSH+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat NSH 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
MIN31116
NSH31105

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · NSH won 0

3
3

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

1
0

OT

MIN
NSH

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·4:14

    Game End

    MIN 6·NSH 5

  2. OT·4:14

    End of OT

    MIN 6·NSH 5

  3. OT·4:14

    Jared Spurgeon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (30), Kirill Kaprizov (38)

    · ·

    MIN 6·NSH 5

  4. OT·3:52

    Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  5. OT·2:54

    Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  6. OT·2:33

    Matt Boldy Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  7. OT·2:20

    Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  8. OT·1:49

    Steven Stamkos hit Brock Faber

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  9. OT·0:00

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  10. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  11. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  12. 3rd·19:28

    Brock Faber hit Cole Smith

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  13. 3rd·19:12

    Danila Yurov faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  14. 3rd·19:12

    Icing

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  15. 3rd·19:08

    Erik Haula hit Brock Faber

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  16. 3rd·18:58

    Yakov Trenin Backhand saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  17. 3rd·18:57

    Yakov Trenin Backhand saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  18. 3rd·18:55

    Yakov Trenin Deflected saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  19. 3rd·18:31

    Yakov Trenin hit Brady Skjei

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  20. 3rd·18:28

    Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  21. 3rd·18:21

    Roman Josi shot blocked by Ryan Hartman

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  22. 3rd·18:13

    Ryan O'Reilly Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  23. 3rd·18:09

    Kirill Kaprizov hit Luke Evangelista

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  24. 3rd·17:58

    Luke Evangelista shot blocked by Jake Middleton

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  25. 3rd·17:37

    Nicolas Hague shot blocked by Quinn Hughes

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  26. 3rd·17:13

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  27. 3rd·17:13

    Goalie Stopped

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  28. 3rd·17:11

    Brock Faber Slap Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  29. 3rd·17:09

    Yakov Trenin Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

  30. 3rd·17:09

    Yakov Trenin Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MIN 5·NSH 5

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

43

Shots

35

50.0

PCT

66.7

11

PIM

9

25

Faceoffs W

36

12

Blocks

17

16

Giveaways

17

2

Takeaways

6

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -125/NSH +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Matt BoldyMIN · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR