Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

MIN

34-14-10

NSH

26-23-7

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-1VegasMIN -125

MIN · top performer

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

4Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Steven Stamkos

C · #91

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	3	1	0	6	0	0	0	19:02
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	16:57
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	0	4	1	2	2	18:54
V. HinostrozaC · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	8:09
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:28
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	1	0	5	1	1	2	24:43
T. PitlickC · #19	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	8:19
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	9:27
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	1	0	2	5	1	0	0	15:43
Y. TreninC · #13	1	0	2	7	4	0	0	16:22
D. YurovRW · #22	0	1	2	1	3	1	0	15:14
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	19:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:33
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	0	4	1	0	0	25:55
Q. HughesD · #43	0	2	-1	1	0	1	2	28:58
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	14:26
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	1	2	0	2	3	0	20:30
J. SpurgeonD · #46	1	0	2	1	4	1	0	18:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	35	5	30	.857	64:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	14:30
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:09
F. ForsbergLW · #9	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	19:53
E. HaulaLW · #56	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:45
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	10:54
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	2	0	1	0	1	0	18:46
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	16:35
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	3	1	1	0	2	2	19:48
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	6:52
C. SmithRW · #36	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	14:46
S. StamkosC · #91	1	2	-1	6	2	0	2	20:00
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	9:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	-3	2	0	1	0	11:29
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	19:15
R. JosiD · #59	1	1	0	8	0	1	0	30:59
N. PerbixD · #48	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	20:57
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-1	0	1	4	0	27:46
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	-1	0	1	2	5	12:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	43	6	37	.860	63:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN leads series 2-1

Nov 5

NSH2@

MIN3

Dec 24

NSH3@

MIN2

Feb 5

MIN6@

NSH5today

Apr 11

MIN1@

NSH2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-12556%

NSH+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat NSH 6-5. M. Boldy led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MIN	3	1	1	1	6
NSH	3	1	1	0	5

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · NSH won 0

MIN

NSH

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:14
Game End
MIN 6·NSH 5
OT·4:14
End of OT
MIN 6·NSH 5
OT·4:14
Jared Spurgeon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (30), Kirill Kaprizov (38)
· ·
MIN 6·NSH 5
OT·3:52
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
OT·2:54
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
OT·2:33
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
OT·2:20
Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
OT·1:49
Steven Stamkos hit Brock Faber
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
OT·0:00
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·19:28
Brock Faber hit Cole Smith
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·19:12
Danila Yurov faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·19:12
Icing
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·19:08
Erik Haula hit Brock Faber
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·18:58
Yakov Trenin Backhand saved by Juuse Saros
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·18:57
Yakov Trenin Backhand saved by Juuse Saros
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·18:55
Yakov Trenin Deflected saved by Juuse Saros
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·18:31
Yakov Trenin hit Brady Skjei
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·18:28
Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·18:21
Roman Josi shot blocked by Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·18:13
Ryan O'Reilly Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·18:09
Kirill Kaprizov hit Luke Evangelista
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·17:58
Luke Evangelista shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·17:37
Nicolas Hague shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·17:13
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·17:13
Goalie Stopped
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·17:11
Brock Faber Slap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·17:09
Yakov Trenin Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
MIN 5·NSH 5
3rd·17:09
Yakov Trenin Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
MIN 5·NSH 5

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -125/NSH +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 6–5 in overtime.

NSH +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
50.8%
P(NSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.8%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.8%
P(NSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Minnesota WildNashville Predators

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