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FINAL+3VGK
VAN

VAN

18-33-6

25
VGK

VGK

26-16-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesVGK leads series 1-0VegasVGK -310

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Vancouver Canucks, 5–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VAN · top performer

VAN
Teddy Blueger

Teddy Blueger

C · #53

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Jack Eichel

Jack Eichel

C · #9

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
5
VAN18-33-6VGK26-16-14
VAN

VAN

18-33-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

26-16-14

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

2

Season series

VGK leads series 1-0

Feb 5VANVAN2@VGKVGK5today
Mar 31VANVAN2@VGKVGK4
Apr 8VGKVGK2@VANVAN1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VANVAN+25029%
VGKVGK-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat VAN 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VAN0202
VGK0325

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · VGK won 2

0
0

1

2
3

2

0
2

3

VAN
VGK

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  3. 3rd·19:41

    Cole Reinhardt Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  4. 3rd·19:23

    Giveaway by Keegan Kolesar

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  5. 3rd·18:02

    Kai Uchacz faceoff won against Aatu Raty

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  6. 3rd·18:02

    Goalie Stopped

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  7. 3rd·17:59

    Kaedan Korczak Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  8. 3rd·17:46

    Takeaway by Ben Hutton

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  9. 3rd·17:37

    Conor Garland Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  10. 3rd·17:03

    Giveaway by Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  11. 3rd·16:39

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  12. 3rd·16:39

    Puck in Netting

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  13. 3rd·16:35

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  14. 3rd·16:35

    Goalie Stopped

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  15. 3rd·16:32

    Mark Stone Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  16. 3rd·16:22

    David Kampf faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  17. 3rd·16:22

    Goalie Stopped

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  18. 3rd·16:20

    Jake DeBrusk Snap Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  19. 3rd·16:09

    Tom Willander Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  20. 3rd·15:26

    Kai Uchacz hit Linus Karlsson

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  21. 3rd·15:12

    Aatu Raty faceoff won against Kai Uchacz

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  22. 3rd·15:12

    Goalie Stopped

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  23. 3rd·15:09

    Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  24. 3rd·14:54

    Pavel Dorofeyev Tip-In saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  25. 3rd·14:02

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  26. 3rd·13:40

    Mark Stone shot blocked by Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  27. 3rd·13:29

    Evander Kane hit Shea Theodore

    ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  28. 3rd·13:26

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  29. 3rd·13:26

    Puck in Crowd

    VAN 2·VGK 5

  30. 3rd·13:09

    Marcus Pettersson Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    · ·

    VAN 2·VGK 5

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

23

Shots

31

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

2

29

Faceoffs W

28

9

Blocks

10

19

Giveaways

20

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +250/VGK -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Filip HronekVAN · D
    DIST MI292.398
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+250

Close price

+250

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

27.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR