Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at VGK?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3VGK

VAN

18-33-6

VGK

26-16-14

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesVGK leads series 1-0VegasVGK -310

VAN · top performer

Teddy Blueger

C · #53

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	2	1	2	2	0	0	17:07
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	12:58
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	18:00
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	-3	1	1	1	0	15:11
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:31
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-3	1	2	0	0	13:46
J. LekkerimakiRW · #23	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	12:57
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:08
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	17:21
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:40
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	12:01
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	12:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	17:06
P. JosephD · #7	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:06
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	20:48
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	23:06
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	1	0	-1	2	2	3	0	21:41
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	31	5	26	.839	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	15:34
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	12:50
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	17:45
J. EichelC · #9	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	19:07
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	16:18
A. HoltzRW · #26	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:09
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	12:49
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:44
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:13
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:19
M. StoneRW · #61	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	17:16
K. UchaczC · #77	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	11:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	20:31
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:57
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	13:20
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:37
J. LauzonD · #5	0	1	1	2	5	2	2	21:50
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	23:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SchmidG · #40	23	2	21	.913	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK leads series 1-0

Feb 5

VAN2@

VGK5today

Mar 31

VAN2@

VGK4

Apr 8

VGK2@

VAN1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+25029%

VGK-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat VAN 5-2. P. Dorofeyev led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	0	2	0	2
VGK	0	3	2	5

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · VGK won 2

VAN

VGK

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·19:41
Cole Reinhardt Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·19:23
Giveaway by Keegan Kolesar
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:02
Kai Uchacz faceoff won against Aatu Raty
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:02
Goalie Stopped
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:59
Kaedan Korczak Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:46
Takeaway by Ben Hutton
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:37
Conor Garland Slap Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:03
Giveaway by Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:39
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:39
Puck in Netting
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:35
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:35
Goalie Stopped
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:32
Mark Stone Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:22
David Kampf faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:22
Goalie Stopped
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:20
Jake DeBrusk Snap Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:09
Tom Willander Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·15:26
Kai Uchacz hit Linus Karlsson
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·15:12
Aatu Raty faceoff won against Kai Uchacz
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·15:12
Goalie Stopped
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·15:09
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·14:54
Pavel Dorofeyev Tip-In saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·14:02
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·13:40
Mark Stone shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·13:29
Evander Kane hit Shea Theodore
·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·13:26
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·13:26
Puck in Crowd
VAN 2·VGK 5
3rd·13:09
Marcus Pettersson Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 5

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +250/VGK -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Vancouver Canucks, 5–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
65.5%
P(VGK win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.5%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.5%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+250

Close price

+250

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

27.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at VGK?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL