Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at CBJ?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CBJ

CHI

22-26-9

CBJ

29-20-7

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesCBJ win series 2-0VegasCBJ -155

CHI · top performer

Frank Nazar

C · #91

0Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Sean Monahan

C · #23

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	22:07
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	20:27
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:17
C. DachC · #34	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	5:31
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:07
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:05
N. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	11:44
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	15:57
O. MooreC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:26
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	-2	4	0	1	2	18:11
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:27
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	-1	2	0	3	2	18:44
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	21:52
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:07
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	-2	2	2	2	0	20:56
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	-1	3	2	3	0	25:42
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	24:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	19	3	16	.842	58:30

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	18:10
A. FantilliC · #19	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	17:11
D. HeinenLW · #43	1	0	2	3	0	0	2	14:19
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	14:17
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	11:21
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:34
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:35
S. MonahanC · #23	1	0	1	4	0	0	2	15:59
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	15:25
C. SillingerC · #4	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	15:53
D. VoronkovLW · #10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:34
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	16:19
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	19:43
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:17
I. ProvorovD · #9	1	0	2	1	0	1	0	21:04
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	22:28
Z. WerenskiD · #8	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	21	0	21	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ win series 2-0

Jan 31

CBJ4@

CHI2

Feb 5

CHI0@

CBJ4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+13043%

CBJ-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat CHI 4-0. S. Monahan led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	0	0	0	0
CBJ	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · CBJ won 3

CHI

CBJ

Play-by-play · 245 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·19:48
Nick Foligno Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·18:44
Giveaway by Andre Burakovsky
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·18:41
Oliver Moore Slap Shot Wide Left
·
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·18:22
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Oliver Moore
·
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·18:22
Icing
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·17:40
Sean Monahan Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·17:06
Jason Dickinson shot blocked by Ivan Provorov
·
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·16:47
Danton Heinen shot blocked by Adam Fantilli
·
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·16:01
Louis Crevier Tip-In Wide Left
·
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·15:33
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Nick Foligno
·
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·15:33
Sean Monahan Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none
CHI 0·CBJ 4
3rd·15:32
Takeaway by Sean Monahan
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·14:53
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·14:53
Goalie Stopped
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·14:51
Frank Nazar Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·14:30
Matt Grzelcyk shot blocked by Damon Severson
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·14:12
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·14:12
Goalie Stopped
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·14:10
Sam Rinzel Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·14:05
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·12:55
Spencer Knight Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·12:53
Kent Johnson Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·11:47
Ilya Mikheyev Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·11:27
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·11:27
Louis Crevier Tripping against Zach Werenski
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·11:25
Adam Fantilli shot blocked by Louis Crevier
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·11:22
Danton Heinen Snap Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3
3rd·11:20
Danton Heinen Tip-In saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 0·CBJ 3

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +130/CBJ -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Chicago Blackhawks, 4–0.

CBJ -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.3%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
64.3%
P(CBJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.3%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.3%
P(CBJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at CBJ?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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