Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at FLA?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

BOS

32-20-5

FLA

29-24-3

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesFLA leads series 2-0VegasFLA -162

BOS · top performer

Michael Eyssimont

C · #81

2Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Anton Lundell

C · #15

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	18:15
M. EyssimontC · #81	2	0	2	4	1	0	2	12:18
M. GeekieC · #39	0	1	-2	2	2	0	0	22:54
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	1	1	4	1	5	12:14
M. KastelicC · #47	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	12:36
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	16:49
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	9:22
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	19:53
C. MittelstadtC · #11	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:55
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	1	-2	2	1	1	0	27:52
M. PoitrasC · #51	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:05
A. SteevesC · #21	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	10:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	13:50
H. LindholmD · #27	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	25:01
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	15:59
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	-1	0	0	2	0	22:05
A. PeekeD · #26	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	19:05
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	1	0	5	1	2	19:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. KorpisaloG · #70	26	4	22	.846	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	22:58
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	-1	0	4	0	5	12:49
A. LundellC · #15	1	2	1	4	1	2	0	24:18
E. LuostarinenC · #27	1	0	0	1	3	0	6	17:10
B. MarchandLW · #63	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	10:55
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	1	1	3	0	2	2	22:58
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	-3	5	1	1	2	16:51
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	7:17
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:47
M. TkachukLW · #19	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	18:04
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	17:47
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	1	1	0	2	4	1	0	21:26
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:27
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	0	0	1	4	2	22:06
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	-1	0	0	3	2	30:48
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	0	0	2	4	2	23:40
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	29	4	25	.862	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

14.3

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

FLA leads series 2-0

Oct 21

FLA4@

BOS3

Feb 5

BOS4@

FLA5today

Apr 2

BOS1@

FLA2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+13642%

FLA-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 37 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat BOS 5-4. A. Lundell led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
BOS	2	0	2	0	0	4
FLA	1	3	0	0	1	5

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · FLA won 2

BOS

FLA

Play-by-play · 391 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Casey Mittelstadt Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Brad Marchand Goal Backhand
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Charlie McAvoy failed shot attempt on Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Marat Khusnutdinov Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Sam Reinhart Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Viktor Arvidsson Goal Backhand
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Anton Lundell Goal Backhand
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
BOS 1·FLA 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·4:50
Uvis Balinskis Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·4:22
Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:38
Marat Khusnutdinov Backhand saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:38
Fraser Minten Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:27
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:27
Puck in Netting
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:24
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·2:55
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Casey Mittelstadt
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·2:55
Icing
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·1:51
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·1:51
Puck in Netting
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·1:45
Morgan Geekie Slap Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·1:04
Evan Rodrigues Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·0:39
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·0:39
Goalie Stopped
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·0:36
Anton Lundell Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·0:22
David Pastrnak shot blocked by Anton Lundell
·
BOS 4·FLA 4

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +136/FLA -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Boston Bruins, 5–4.

BOS +1.5 cashed (FLA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(FLA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at FLA?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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