NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

BOS

32-20-5

FLA

29-24-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesFLA leads series 2-0VegasFLA -162

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Boston Bruins, 5–4.

BOS +1.5 cashed (FLA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

Michael Eyssimont

C · #81

2Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Anton Lundell

C · #15

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

BOS32-20-5

FLA29-24-3

BOS32-20-5FLA29-24-3

BOS

32-20-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

FLA

29-24-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

FLA leads series 2-0

Oct 21

FLA4@

BOS3

Feb 5

BOS4@

FLA5today

Apr 2

BOS1@

FLA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+13642%

FLA-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat BOS 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
BOS	2	0	2	0	0	4
FLA	1	3	0	0	1	5

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · FLA won 2

BOS

FLA

Play-by-play · 391 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Casey Mittelstadt Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Brad Marchand Goal Backhand
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Charlie McAvoy failed shot attempt on Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Marat Khusnutdinov Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Sam Reinhart Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Viktor Arvidsson Goal Backhand
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Anton Lundell Goal Backhand
BOS 1·FLA 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
BOS 1·FLA 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·4:50
Uvis Balinskis Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·4:22
Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:38
Marat Khusnutdinov Backhand saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:38
Fraser Minten Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:27
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:27
Puck in Netting
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·3:24
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·2:55
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Casey Mittelstadt
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·2:55
Icing
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·1:51
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·1:51
Puck in Netting
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·1:45
Morgan Geekie Slap Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·1:04
Evan Rodrigues Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·0:39
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·0:39
Goalie Stopped
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·0:36
Anton Lundell Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 4·FLA 4
OT·0:22
David Pastrnak shot blocked by Anton Lundell
·
BOS 4·FLA 4

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

14.3

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +136/FLA -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
SKATE MPH23.195
Sam BennettFLA · C
DIST MI239.693
Mackie SamoskevichFLA · RW
BURSTS18693
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
SKATE MPH23.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

FLA vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

David PastrnakBOS
3.2± 2.2high
Matthew PoitrasBOS
2.7± 2.8low
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high

Goals

Morgan GeekieBOS
0.6± 0.9high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

David PastrnakBOS
1.1± 1.1high
Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands