Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

VGK

25-14-13

MTL

29-17-7

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesMTL wins series 2-0VegasVGK -120

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	16:20
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	15:26
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	2	0	2	8	0	0	0	19:16
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	26:00
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	18:54
A. HoltzRW · #26	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	5:18
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	15:13
T. LaczynskiC · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	6:27
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	22:26
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	5:33
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:44
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	23:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	5	0	3	2	22:49
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	22:22
B. HuttonD · #17	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	13:14
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	15:40
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	6	2	0	20:51
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	24:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SchmidG · #40	26	3	23	.885	63:58

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	12:34
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	12:12
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	1	5	0	0	2	19:27
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:05
P. DanaultC · #24	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:12
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:23
J. EvansC · #71	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	19:23
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:04
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	15:16
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:54
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:17
A. TexierLW · #85	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	16:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-2	1	1	4	0	21:23
N. DobsonD · #53	0	1	2	0	2	3	0	20:41
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	1	4	3	0	19:42
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	-1	2	1	2	2	25:04
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	2	2	0	2	0	24:25
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	8:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	34	2	32	.941	63:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MTL wins series 2-0

Nov 28

MTL4@

VGK1

Jan 28

VGK2@

MTL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-12055%

MTL+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat VGK 3-2. C. Caufield led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
VGK	1	0	1	0	2
MTL	0	2	0	1	3

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · MTL won 2

VGK

MTL

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:58
Game End
VGK 2·MTL 3
OT·3:58
End of OT
VGK 2·MTL 3
OT·3:58
Jake Evans Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Texier (11)
·
VGK 2·MTL 3
OT·3:47
Jack Eichel Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·2:43
Kaedan Korczak hit Lane Hutson
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·2:27
Kaedan Korczak shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·1:31
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·1:30
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·1:13
Lane Hutson Snap Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·1:07
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·1:07
Timeout - Home
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·1:07
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·1:05
Juraj Slafkovský Backhand saved by Akira Schmid
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·1:03
Cole Caufield shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·0:00
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:57
Mark Stone Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:48
Jeremy Lauzon hit Ivan Demidov
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:42
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:27
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:27
Rasmus Andersson Tripping against Alexandre Texier
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·18:36
Braeden Bowman shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·18:13
Giveaway by Cole Caufield
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:50
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:50
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:48
Rasmus Andersson Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:46
Noah Hanifin Slap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:39
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
VGK 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:39
Icing
VGK 2·MTL 2

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -120/MTL +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Vegas Golden Knights, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsMontreal Canadiens

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