Live · 4
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1MTL
VGK

VGK

25-14-13

23
MTL

MTL

29-17-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesMTL wins series 2-0VegasVGK -120

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Vegas Golden Knights, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Pavel Dorofeyev

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Zack Bolduc

Zack Bolduc

RW · #76

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
VGK25-14-13MTL29-17-7
VGK

VGK

25-14-13

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

29-17-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

MTL wins series 2-0

Nov 28MTLMTL4@VGKVGK1
Jan 28VGKVGK2@MTLMTL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-12055%
MTLMTL+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat VGK 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
VGK10102
MTL02013

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · MTL won 2

1
0

1

0
2

2

1
0

3

0
1

OT

VGK
MTL

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·3:58

    Game End

    VGK 2·MTL 3

  2. OT·3:58

    End of OT

    VGK 2·MTL 3

  3. OT·3:58

    Jake Evans Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Texier (11)

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 3

  4. OT·3:47

    Jack Eichel Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  5. OT·2:43

    Kaedan Korczak hit Lane Hutson

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  6. OT·2:27

    Kaedan Korczak shot blocked by Lane Hutson

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  7. OT·1:31

    Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  8. OT·1:30

    Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  9. OT·1:13

    Lane Hutson Snap Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  10. OT·1:07

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  11. OT·1:07

    Timeout - Home

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  12. OT·1:07

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  13. OT·1:05

    Juraj Slafkovský Backhand saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  14. OT·1:03

    Cole Caufield shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  15. OT·0:00

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  16. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  17. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  18. 3rd·19:57

    Mark Stone Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  19. 3rd·19:48

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Ivan Demidov

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  20. 3rd·19:42

    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  21. 3rd·19:27

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  22. 3rd·19:27

    Rasmus Andersson Tripping against Alexandre Texier

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  23. 3rd·18:36

    Braeden Bowman shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  24. 3rd·18:13

    Giveaway by Cole Caufield

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  25. 3rd·17:50

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  26. 3rd·17:50

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  27. 3rd·17:48

    Rasmus Andersson Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  28. 3rd·17:46

    Noah Hanifin Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  29. 3rd·17:39

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    VGK 2·MTL 2

  30. 3rd·17:39

    Icing

    VGK 2·MTL 2

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

34

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

6

22

Faceoffs W

18

15

Blocks

18

12

Giveaways

8

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -120/MTL +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR