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FINAL+1BOS
NSH

NSH

24-23-5

23
BOS

BOS

31-20-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -115

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Nashville Predators, 3–2 in overtime.

NSH +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Luke Evangelista

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

BOS
David Pastrnak

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
NSH24-23-5BOS31-20-3
NSH

NSH

24-23-5

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BOS

BOS

31-20-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

10

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Jan 28NSHNSH2@BOSBOS3today
Mar 6BOSBOS3@NSHNSH6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH-10551%
BOSBOS-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat NSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
NSH01102
BOS11013

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · BOS won 2

0
1

1

1
1

2

1
0

3

0
1

OT

NSH
BOS

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:15

    Game End

    NSH 2·BOS 3

  2. OT·0:15

    End of OT

    NSH 2·BOS 3

  3. OT·0:15

    David Pastrnak Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (31), Marat Khusnutdinov (12)

    · ·

    NSH 2·BOS 3

  4. OT·0:00

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Mark Kastelic

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  5. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  6. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  7. 3rd·19:48

    David Pastrnak Backhand saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  8. 3rd·19:43

    Nick Perbix shot blocked by Marat Khusnutdinov

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  9. 3rd·19:34

    Takeaway by Ryan O'Reilly

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  10. 3rd·18:44

    Michael Bunting Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  11. 3rd·18:06

    Erik Haula Backhand saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  12. 3rd·17:58

    Cole Smith hit Hampus Lindholm

    · ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  13. 3rd·17:41

    Giveaway by Fraser Minten

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  14. 3rd·17:40

    Roman Josi hit Fraser Minten

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  15. 3rd·17:01

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Mark Kastelic

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  16. 3rd·17:01

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  17. 3rd·16:58

    Michael Bunting Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  18. 3rd·16:52

    David Pastrnak Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  19. 3rd·16:40

    Michael McCarron Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  20. 3rd·16:37

    Giveaway by Hampus Lindholm

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  21. 3rd·16:26

    David Pastrnak shot blocked by Roman Josi

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  22. 3rd·16:23

    David Pastrnak hit Brady Skjei

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  23. 3rd·16:06

    Giveaway by Charlie McAvoy

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  24. 3rd·15:58

    Hampus Lindholm hit Nick Blankenburg

    · ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  25. 3rd·15:39

    Ryan O'Reilly Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  26. 3rd·15:28

    Giveaway by Mason Lohrei

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  27. 3rd·15:02

    Giveaway by Mason Lohrei

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  28. 3rd·14:34

    Giveaway by Adam Wilsby

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  29. 3rd·14:18

    Adam Wilsby Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

  30. 3rd·14:08

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Pavel Zacha

    ·

    NSH 2·BOS 2

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

30

Shots

28

25.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

10

20

Faceoffs W

30

8

Blocks

11

16

Giveaways

19

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH -105/BOS -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
    SKATE MPH23.092
  • Nick BlankenburgCOL · D
    SKATE MPH22.591

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR