Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

NSH

24-23-5

BOS

31-20-3

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -115

NSH · top performer

Roman Josi

D · #59

1Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	15:42
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:29
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	-2	3	4	0	2	22:19
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	16:54
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:59
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:04
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	23:45
C. SmithRW · #36	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:57
S. StamkosC · #91	0	1	0	3	4	0	2	19:46
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	3:05
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	7:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	8:05
N. BlankenburgD · #37	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:41
A. EnglundD · #8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:43
R. JosiD · #59	1	0	-2	2	1	1	0	29:59
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	15:13
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-2	1	0	1	2	25:24
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	16:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	28	3	25	.893	59:37

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	14:10
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	8:07
M. GeekieC · #39	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:10
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	9:20
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	11:43
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	1	2	1	2	2	0	14:04
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:28
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:03
F. MintenC · #93	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	18:53
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:31
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	1	2	7	3	0	2	23:46
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:35
H. LindholmD · #27	1	0	0	1	1	1	4	19:13
M. LohreiD · #6	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	15:08
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	2	3	1	1	0	27:14
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	17:34
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	30	2	28	.933	60:15

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Jan 28

NSH2@

BOS3today

Mar 6

BOS3@

NSH6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH-10551%

BOS-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat NSH 3-2. D. Pastrnak led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NSH	0	1	1	0	2
BOS	1	1	0	1	3

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · BOS won 2

NSH

BOS

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:15
Game End
NSH 2·BOS 3
OT·0:15
End of OT
NSH 2·BOS 3
OT·0:15
David Pastrnak Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (31), Marat Khusnutdinov (12)
· ·
NSH 2·BOS 3
OT·0:00
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Mark Kastelic
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·19:48
David Pastrnak Backhand saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·19:43
Nick Perbix shot blocked by Marat Khusnutdinov
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·19:34
Takeaway by Ryan O'Reilly
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·18:44
Michael Bunting Tip-In Wide Right
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·18:06
Erik Haula Backhand saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·17:58
Cole Smith hit Hampus Lindholm
· ·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Fraser Minten
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·17:40
Roman Josi hit Fraser Minten
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·17:01
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Mark Kastelic
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·17:01
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·16:58
Michael Bunting Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·16:52
David Pastrnak Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·16:40
Michael McCarron Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·16:37
Giveaway by Hampus Lindholm
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·16:26
David Pastrnak shot blocked by Roman Josi
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·16:23
David Pastrnak hit Brady Skjei
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·16:06
Giveaway by Charlie McAvoy
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·15:58
Hampus Lindholm hit Nick Blankenburg
· ·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·15:39
Ryan O'Reilly Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·15:28
Giveaway by Mason Lohrei
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·15:02
Giveaway by Mason Lohrei
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·14:34
Giveaway by Adam Wilsby
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·14:18
Adam Wilsby Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
NSH 2·BOS 2
3rd·14:08
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
NSH 2·BOS 2

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH -105/BOS -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Nashville Predators, 3–2 in overtime.

NSH +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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