Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

WPG

21-24-7

27-24-2

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesWPG wins series 2-0VegasNJ -130

WPG · top performer

Mark Scheifele

C · #55

2Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	11:53
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	2	1	2	0	0	2	20:35
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	1	0	1	5	2	0	13:02
C. KoepkeLW · #45	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	10:00
A. LowryC · #17	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	16:28
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	1	0	3	0	2	0	15:43
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:35
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:59
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	12:34
M. ScheifeleC · #55	1	1	1	4	0	2	0	20:35
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:03
G. VilardiC · #13	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	24:16
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	1	3	1	2	2	23:43
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	17:49
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	21:25
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	14:04
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	29	3	26	.897	59:37

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrattLW · #63	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	20:00
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:35
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	7:50
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	13:41
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6:44
L. GlendeningC · #14	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	5:28
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	17:41
L. HameenahoRW · #29	1	0	-1	1	1	0	0	15:46
N. HischierC · #13	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	21:07
J. HughesC · #86	0	2	-1	6	0	1	0	25:14
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	-2	3	2	0	0	17:53
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	18:11
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	23:07
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	15:55
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	2	2	18:52
B. PesceD · #22	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	21:32
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	-2	1	2	1	0	16:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	26	4	22	.846	57:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WPG wins series 2-0

Jan 11

NJ3@

WPG4

Jan 28

WPG4@

NJ3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+11048%

NJ-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat NJ 4-3. M. Scheifele led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	1	3	0	4
NJ	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · NJ won 1

WPG

Play-by-play · 283 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·19:52
Vladislav Namestnikov Snap Shot Wide Left
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·19:41
Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Vladislav Namestnikov
·
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·19:35
Timo Meier Backhand saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·19:22
Connor Brown Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·19:16
Takeaway by Jack Hughes
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·19:10
Giveaway by Jack Hughes
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·18:14
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·18:14
Nico Hischier Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (27), Jack Hughes (24)
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 3
3rd·17:52
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Nico Hischier
·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·17:42
Giveaway by Josh Morrissey
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·17:27
Arseny Gritsyuk Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·17:18
Vladislav Namestnikov Backhand saved by Jake Allen
·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·17:13
Giveaway by Simon Nemec
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·16:48
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·15:55
Dawson Mercer shot blocked by Dylan Samberg
·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·15:19
Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Luke Schenn
·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·15:03
Jesper Bratt Deflected saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:23
Morgan Barron hit Connor Brown
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:20
Connor Brown shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:19
Dougie Hamilton Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:09
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:09
Goalie Stopped
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:09
Connor Brown Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:07
Dougie Hamilton Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:00
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:00
Josh Morrissey Tripping against Arseny Gritsyuk
·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·13:57
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·NJ 2
3rd·13:18
Dawson Mercer faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 4·NJ 2

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +110/NJ -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 4–3.

WPG +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
62.6%
P(NJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.6%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.6%
P(NJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsNew Jersey Devils

Elsewhere in the NHL