Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2LA

22-16-13

DET

32-17-5

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDET -125

LA · top performer

Samuel Helenius

C · #79

1Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:05
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	18:15
K. FialaLW · #22	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	15:26
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	15:44
S. HeleniusC · #79	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	11:02
A. KempeRW · #9	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	16:38
A. KuzmenkoLW · #96	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	14:46
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	1	1	1	7	0	0	19:35
J. MalottLW · #39	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	8:00
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:38
C. PerryRW · #10	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:28
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:58
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	19:04
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	1	1	6	0	19:26
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	2	0	0	1	2	22:21
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	14:56
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	28	1	27	.964	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:38
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:25
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	19:24
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	19:59
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:02
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:18
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	16:21
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	-1	5	0	0	2	20:57
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:43
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:03
E. SoderblomLW · #85	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:32
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	19:20
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	21:02
T. HamonicD · #52	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	11:28
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	17:06
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:38
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	0	3	3	4	0	26:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	21	2	19	.905	57:45

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 31

DET4@

LA3

Jan 28

LA3@

DET1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+10549%

DET-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat DET 3-1. S. Helenius led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	0	1	2	3
DET	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

LA won 2 · DET won 0

DET

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:56
Albert Johansson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:53
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:53
Adrian Kempe Slashing against Mason Appleton
·
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:35
Albert Johansson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:32
Axel Sandin-Pellikka Snap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:25
Giveaway by Corey Perry
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:47
Michael Rasmussen faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:47
Corey Perry Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (12)
·
LA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:44
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:44
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:40
Patrick Kane Backhand saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:36
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:36
Timeout - Home
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:36
Puck in Crowd
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:35
Joel Armia shot blocked by Andrew Copp
·
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:02
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:02
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·18:00
Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:45
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:45
Alex DeBrincat Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (29), Patrick Kane (23)
· ·
LA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:31
Dylan Larkin shot blocked by Cody Ceci
·
LA 2·DET 0
3rd·17:29
Alex DeBrincat Snap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·DET 0
3rd·17:28
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Kevin Fiala
·
LA 2·DET 0
3rd·17:23
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 2·DET 0
3rd·17:23
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·DET 0
3rd·17:22
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·DET 0
3rd·17:21
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·DET 0
3rd·17:20
Alex DeBrincat Tip-In saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·DET 0

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +105/DET -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 3–1.

LA +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
65.1%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.1%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.1%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsDetroit Red Wings

Elsewhere in the NHL