NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SEA

WSH

25-22-7

SEA

24-19-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -118

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Washington Capitals, 5–1.

SEA +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

Ryan Leonard

RW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Jared McCann

LW · #19

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

WSH25-22-7

SEA24-19-9

WSH25-22-7SEA24-19-9

WSH

25-22-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

SEA

24-19-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 21

SEA1@

WSH4

Jan 28

WSH1@

SEA5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-11854%

SEA-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat WSH 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	0	1	1
SEA	0	3	2	5

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · SEA won 2

WSH

SEA

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:06
Jaden Schwartz faceoff won against Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:06
Puck in Netting
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:01
Jaden Schwartz faceoff won against Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:01
Goalie Stopped
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:00
Kaapo Kakko Backhand saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:59
Kaapo Kakko Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:53
Eeli Tolvanen Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:43
Shane Wright faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:43
Brandon Duhaime Fighting against Jacob Melanson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:43
Jacob Melanson Fighting against Brandon Duhaime
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:43
Brandon Duhaime Roughing against Jacob Melanson served by Alex Ovechkin
· ·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:24
Giveaway by Justin Sourdif
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:19
Justin Sourdif hit Ryan Winterton
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:11
Jacob Melanson Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:17
Vince Dunn hit Dylan McIlrath
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:14
Vince Dunn shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:54
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:54
Challenge Vis - goal interference - no goal
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:48
Dylan McIlrath hit Jacob Melanson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:39
Ryan Winterton Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:34
Dylan McIlrath shot blocked by Shane Wright
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:27
Shane Wright faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:27
Matty Beniers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (12), Brandon Montour (14)
· ·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:09
Jordan Eberle shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
WSH 1·SEA 4
3rd·16:08
Jared McCann shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
WSH 1·SEA 4
3rd·16:05
Giveaway by Anthony Beauvillier
WSH 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:26
Ethen Frank shot blocked by Ryker Evans
·
WSH 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:24
John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
WSH 1·SEA 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH -118/SEA -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Brandon MontourSEA · D
SHOT MPH101.698
Matty BeniersSEA · C
DIST MI267.798

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SEA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high
Brandon MontourSEA
3.0± 1.3high

Goals

Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high
Ryan LeonardWSH
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high
Ilya ProtasWSH
1.0± 1.9low
Connor McMichaelWSH
0.9± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands