Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SEA

WSH

25-22-7

SEA

24-19-9

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -118

WSH · top performer

Alex Ovechkin

LW · #8

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Jared McCann

LW · #19

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	-2	0	2	2	0	13:30
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	12:47
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	1	0	1	7	10:16
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	15:00
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	7:52
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	14:30
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	14:58
A. OvechkinLW · #8	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	19:10
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	17:35
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	18:11
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:24
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	22:49
D. ChisholmD · #47	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:53
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	1	-2	2	0	2	0	24:35
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	-2	0	1	5	0	19:48
D. McIlrathD · #52	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	11:53
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	-3	1	1	2	0	19:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	32	5	27	.844	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	1	1	3	3	0	1	4	17:35
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	10:23
J. EberleRW · #7	1	1	3	3	1	1	0	15:07
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:04
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:32
J. McCannLW · #19	2	2	3	4	0	0	0	14:11
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	1	1	7	0	5	12:12
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:48
C. StephensonC · #9	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	19:38
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	4	1	2	2	15:40
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	11:17
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	18:38
R. EvansD · #41	1	0	2	1	2	1	0	17:45
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:59
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	1	2	0	1	2	0	18:02
B. MontourD · #62	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	19:24
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	19:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	20	1	19	.950	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 21

SEA1@

WSH4

Jan 28

WSH1@

SEA5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-11854%

SEA-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat WSH 5-1. J. McCann led the way — 2 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	0	1	1
SEA	0	3	2	5

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · SEA won 2

WSH

SEA

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:06
Jaden Schwartz faceoff won against Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:06
Puck in Netting
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:01
Jaden Schwartz faceoff won against Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:01
Goalie Stopped
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:00
Kaapo Kakko Backhand saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:59
Kaapo Kakko Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:53
Eeli Tolvanen Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:43
Shane Wright faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:43
Brandon Duhaime Fighting against Jacob Melanson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:43
Jacob Melanson Fighting against Brandon Duhaime
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:43
Brandon Duhaime Roughing against Jacob Melanson served by Alex Ovechkin
· ·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:24
Giveaway by Justin Sourdif
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:19
Justin Sourdif hit Ryan Winterton
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:11
Jacob Melanson Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:17
Vince Dunn hit Dylan McIlrath
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:14
Vince Dunn shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:54
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:54
Challenge Vis - goal interference - no goal
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:48
Dylan McIlrath hit Jacob Melanson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:39
Ryan Winterton Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:34
Dylan McIlrath shot blocked by Shane Wright
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:27
Shane Wright faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:27
Matty Beniers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (12), Brandon Montour (14)
· ·
WSH 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:09
Jordan Eberle shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
WSH 1·SEA 4
3rd·16:08
Jared McCann shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
WSH 1·SEA 4
3rd·16:05
Giveaway by Anthony Beauvillier
WSH 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:26
Ethen Frank shot blocked by Ryker Evans
·
WSH 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:24
John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
WSH 1·SEA 4

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH -118/SEA -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Washington Capitals, 5–1.

SEA +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
56.2%
P(SEA win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(SEA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
54.4%
P(SEA win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

SEA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Alex TuchWSH
3.3± 1.7high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high

Goals

Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichSEA
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high
Ilya ProtasWSH
1.0± 1.9low
Pierre-Luc DuboisWSH
0.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington CapitalsSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL