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FINAL+1UTA
UTA

UTA

28-21-4

43
FLA

FLA

28-21-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasFLA -166

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 4–3.

UTA +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Michael Carcone

Michael Carcone

LW · #53

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

FLA
Sam Bennett

Sam Bennett

C · #9

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Florida Panthers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
UTA28-21-4FLA28-21-3
UTA

UTA

28-21-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
FLA

FLA

28-21-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 11FLAFLA4@UTAUTA3
Jan 28UTAUTA4@FLAFLA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA+14042%
FLAFLA-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat FLA 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA1124
FLA0213

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · FLA won 1

1
0

1

1
2

2

2
1

3

UTA
FLA

Play-by-play · 292 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 4·FLA 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 4·FLA 3

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Giveaway by Mikhail Sergachev

    UTA 4·FLA 3

  4. 3rd·19:53

    Sam Reinhart shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev

    ·

    UTA 4·FLA 3

  5. 3rd·19:51

    Ian Cole hit Sam Bennett

    ·

    UTA 4·FLA 3

  6. 3rd·19:48

    Brad Marchand Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 4·FLA 3

  7. 3rd·19:44

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Sam Reinhart

    ·

    UTA 4·FLA 3

  8. 3rd·19:44

    Carter Verhaeghe Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (22), Brad Marchand (25)

    · ·

    UTA 4·FLA 3

  9. 3rd·19:29

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Sam Bennett

    ·

    UTA 4·FLA 2

  10. 3rd·19:29

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 4·FLA 2

  11. 3rd·19:27

    Sam Reinhart Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 4·FLA 2

  12. 3rd·19:04

    Sam Reinhart faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 4·FLA 2

  13. 3rd·19:04

    Barrett Hayton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (8)

    ·

    UTA 4·FLA 2

  14. 3rd·18:57

    Giveaway by Ian Cole

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  15. 3rd·18:55

    Giveaway by Carter Verhaeghe

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  16. 3rd·18:47

    Giveaway by Uvis Balinskis

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  17. 3rd·18:43

    Sam Reinhart shot blocked by Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  18. 3rd·17:51

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Sam Reinhart

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  19. 3rd·17:51

    TV Timeout

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  20. 3rd·17:51

    Matthew Tkachuk Embellishment

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  21. 3rd·17:51

    Nick Schmaltz Tripping against Matthew Tkachuk

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  22. 3rd·17:18

    A.J. Greer Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  23. 3rd·16:39

    Mackie Samoskevich Deflected Wide Right

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  24. 3rd·16:29

    Carter Verhaeghe shot blocked by Ian Cole

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  25. 3rd·16:28

    Mackie Samoskevich hit John Marino

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  26. 3rd·16:01

    Michael Carcone hit Niko Mikkola

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  27. 3rd·15:58

    Giveaway by Michael Carcone

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  28. 3rd·15:57

    Matthew Tkachuk hit Michael Carcone

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  29. 3rd·15:24

    JJ Peterka Slap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

  30. 3rd·15:09

    Nick Schmaltz Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 3·FLA 2

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

20

Shots

30

0.0

PCT

0.0

12

PIM

10

28

Faceoffs W

20

13

Blocks

7

24

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA +140/FLA -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497
  • Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
    SKATE MPH23.195
  • Sam BennettFLA · C
    DIST MI239.693
  • Mackie SamoskevichFLA · RW
    BURSTS18693
  • Jeff PetryMIN · D
    SHOT MPH95.690

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+140

Close price

+140

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR