NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

DAL

30-14-9

STL

19-25-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasDAL -162

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 4–3.

STL +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Matt Duchene

C · #95

2Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Brayden Schenn

C · #10

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

DAL30-14-9

STL19-25-9

DAL30-14-9STL19-25-9

DAL

30-14-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

STL

19-25-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

Oct 18

DAL1@

STL3

Jan 24

STL2@

DAL3

Jan 28

DAL4@

STL3today

Feb 5

STL4@

DAL5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-16262%

STL+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat STL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	3	1	4
STL	0	0	3	3

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · STL won 1

DAL

STL

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:58
Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Pavel Buchnevich
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:57
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:57
Icing
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:34
Brayden Schenn hit Miro Heiskanen
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:30
Jimmy Snuggerud hit Esa Lindell
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:25
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:25
Puck Frozen - Goalie
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·18:53
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·18:53
Thomas Harley Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (30)
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·18:49
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·18:49
Icing
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·18:42
Radek Faksa hit Logan Mailloux
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·18:38
Colin Blackwell hit Alexey Toropchenko
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·18:18
Alexey Toropchenko hit Esa Lindell
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:58
Roope Hintz Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:26
Philip Broberg shot blocked by Robby Fabbri
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:24
Colton Parayko Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:07
Thomas Harley hit Jonatan Berggren
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:04
Colton Parayko shot blocked by Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·16:41
Giveaway by Colton Parayko
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·16:34
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·16:34
Puck in Netting
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·16:32
Nick Bjugstad Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·15:50
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Nathan Walker
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·15:50
Brayden Schenn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (11)
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·15:40
Giveaway by Thomas Harley
DAL 3·STL 2
3rd·15:02
Giveaway by Mathieu Joseph
DAL 3·STL 2
3rd·14:26
Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
DAL 3·STL 2

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -162/STL +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Philip BrobergSTL · D
BURSTS15898
Roope HintzDAL · C
BURSTS25998
Colton ParaykoSTL · D
BURSTS9494
Cam FowlerSTL · D
DIST MI260.294
Pavel BuchnevichSTL · LW
DIST MI234.892

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

STL vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Dylan HollowaySTL
3.1± 1.3high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
2.7± 1.8high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Robert ThomasSTL
0.7± 1.2high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high

Points

Robert ThomasSTL
1.4± 1.1high
Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands