Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

DAL

30-14-9

STL

19-25-9

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasDAL -162

DAL · top performer

Matt Duchene

C · #95

2Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Brayden Schenn

C · #10

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	11:14
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:04
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	-2	2	4	1	0	10:08
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	16:29
M. DucheneC · #95	2	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:32
R. FaksaC · #12	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	11:51
R. HintzC · #24	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	16:07
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:52
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	18:40
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	19:44
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	2	-1	2	1	0	0	19:29
S. SteelC · #18	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	14:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CapobiancoD · #20	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	10:25
T. HarleyD · #55	1	1	0	2	1	3	0	22:11
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	27:10
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	26:31
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:07
A. PetrovicD · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	12:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	26	3	23	.885	59:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:21
N. BjugstadC · #77	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	12:50
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	20:55
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	1	2	3	3	0	2	19:22
R. FabbriC · #9	1	0	1	2	4	0	2	16:30
M. JosephRW · #71	0	0	-2	1	4	1	0	13:39
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:21
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	5:19
B. SchennC · #10	2	0	2	4	6	1	0	18:05
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	2	3	2	4	0	0	20:32
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	-1	0	5	2	0	11:16
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	11:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	24:54
J. FaulkD · #72	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	21:44
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	20:07
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	14:16
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	23:27
T. TuckerD · #75	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	12:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	24	4	20	.833	58:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

Oct 18

DAL1@

STL3

Jan 24

STL2@

DAL3

Jan 28

DAL4@

STL3today

Feb 5

STL4@

DAL5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-16262%

STL+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat STL 4-3. M. Duchene led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	3	1	4
STL	0	0	3	3

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · STL won 1

DAL

STL

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:58
Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Pavel Buchnevich
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:57
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:57
Icing
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:34
Brayden Schenn hit Miro Heiskanen
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:30
Jimmy Snuggerud hit Esa Lindell
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:25
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·19:25
Puck Frozen - Goalie
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·18:53
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·18:53
Thomas Harley Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (30)
·
DAL 4·STL 3
3rd·18:49
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·18:49
Icing
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·18:42
Radek Faksa hit Logan Mailloux
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·18:38
Colin Blackwell hit Alexey Toropchenko
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·18:18
Alexey Toropchenko hit Esa Lindell
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:58
Roope Hintz Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:26
Philip Broberg shot blocked by Robby Fabbri
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:24
Colton Parayko Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:07
Thomas Harley hit Jonatan Berggren
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·17:04
Colton Parayko shot blocked by Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·16:41
Giveaway by Colton Parayko
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·16:34
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·16:34
Puck in Netting
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·16:32
Nick Bjugstad Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·15:50
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Nathan Walker
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·15:50
Brayden Schenn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (11)
·
DAL 3·STL 3
3rd·15:40
Giveaway by Thomas Harley
DAL 3·STL 2
3rd·15:02
Giveaway by Mathieu Joseph
DAL 3·STL 2
3rd·14:26
Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
DAL 3·STL 2

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -162/STL +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 4–3.

STL +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.7%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
46.7%
P(STL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
46.7%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
46.7%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Dallas StarsSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL