Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SJ

27-21-3

VAN

17-31-5

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesSJ leads series 3-0VegasSJ -135

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

4Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Filip Hronek

D · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	3	2	4	1	1	2	17:38
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	16:15
A. GaudetteRW · #81	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:21
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	11:52
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:50
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:17
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:16
R. ReavesRW · #75	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	11:21
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:50
W. SmithC · #2	1	2	1	1	1	0	2	17:30
T. ToffoliC · #73	1	0	1	5	0	0	2	13:55
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	20:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	1	0	2	4	0	21:07
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	19:13
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	21:38
J. KlingbergD · #3	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	19:40
T. LiljegrenD · #37	0	0	0	3	1	0	5	17:21
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	25	2	23	.920	59:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	15:36
F. ChytilC · #72	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	14:14
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	2	0	2	0	1	2	17:18
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	0	0	3	2	1	2	15:08
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:05
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	0	1	3	0	7	12:24
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	16:23
J. LekkerimakiRW · #23	0	0	-1	4	2	0	0	16:05
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	13:41
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:33
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	2	0	0	2	3	0	18:10
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. HronekD · #17	1	0	-2	3	2	2	0	23:39
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	-1	1	5	1	0	17:35
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	18:20
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-2	0	1	3	2	20:54
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	18:05
T. WillanderD · #5	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	16:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	27	2	25	.926	54:05
K. LankinenG · #32	6	3	3	.500	5:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ leads series 3-0

Nov 28

VAN2@

SJ3

Dec 28

SJ6@

VAN3

Jan 28

SJ5@

VAN2today

Apr 12

VAN4@

SJ3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ-13557%

VAN+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat VAN 5-2. M. Celebrini led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	3	1	1	5
VAN	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

SJ won 2 · VAN won 0

VAN

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·19:45
Takeaway by Ryan Reaves
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·18:35
Barclay Goodrow hit Elias Pettersson
· ·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·18:06
Tom Willander shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·17:24
Victor Mancini Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·16:57
William Eklund Slap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·16:28
Filip Chytil faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·16:28
Icing
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·16:19
Giveaway by John Klingberg
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·16:00
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
· ·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·16:00
Puck in Netting
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·15:35
Marcus Pettersson hit Will Smith
· ·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·15:29
Aatu Raty Snap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·14:46
Liam Ohgren Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·14:44
Giveaway by Timothy Liljegren
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·14:43
Conor Garland hit Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·14:09
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Michael Misa
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·14:09
Puck in Netting
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·14:06
John Klingberg Slap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·12:45
Ryan Reaves hit Linus Karlsson
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·12:43
Takeaway by Linus Karlsson
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·12:25
Linus Karlsson hit Vincent Desharnais
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·12:10
Jake DeBrusk Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·11:40
Giveaway by Will Smith
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·11:23
Collin Graf hit Teddy Blueger
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·10:53
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·10:35
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·10:35
Icing
SJ 5·VAN 2
3rd·10:05
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
·
SJ 5·VAN 2

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ -135/VAN +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 5–2.

SJ -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.5%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
46.5%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
46.5%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
46.5%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

San Jose SharksVancouver Canucks

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