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FINAL+1EDM
WSH

WSH

25-21-7

56
EDM

EDM

26-19-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -175

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Washington Capitals, 6–5 in overtime.

WSH +1.5 cashed (EDM won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Connor McMichael

Connor McMichael

C · #24

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid

C · #97

5Points

2

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
5
6
WSH25-21-7EDM26-19-8
WSH

WSH

25-21-7

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

26-19-8

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 20EDMEDM4@WSHWSH7
Jan 25WSHWSH5@EDMEDM6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+14541%
EDMEDM-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat WSH 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
WSH12205
EDM11316

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · EDM won 2

1
1

1

2
1

2

2
3

3

0
1

OT

WSH
EDM

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:47

    Game End

    WSH 5·EDM 6

  2. OT·0:47

    End of OT

    WSH 5·EDM 6

  3. OT·0:47

    Connor McDavid Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (41), Leon Draisaitl (45)

    · ·

    WSH 5·EDM 6

  4. OT·0:33

    Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  5. OT·0:31

    Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  6. OT·0:25

    Connor McDavid Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  7. OT·0:23

    Giveaway by Connor McDavid

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  8. OT·0:00

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  9. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  10. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  11. 3rd·19:46

    Curtis Lazar hit Matt Roy

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  12. 3rd·19:36

    Trent Frederic Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  13. 3rd·19:33

    Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  14. 3rd·19:28

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Trent Frederic

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  15. 3rd·19:28

    Zach Hyman Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (58), Evan Bouchard (40)

    · ·

    WSH 5·EDM 5

  16. 3rd·19:19

    Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  17. 3rd·19:03

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Martin Fehervary

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  18. 3rd·18:37

    Connor McDavid Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  19. 3rd·18:31

    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Nic Dowd

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  20. 3rd·18:27

    Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  21. 3rd·18:26

    Connor McDavid Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  22. 3rd·17:59

    Zach Hyman Tip-In High and Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  23. 3rd·17:38

    Connor McDavid Wrap-around saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  24. 3rd·17:00

    Martin Fehervary Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  25. 3rd·16:44

    Giveaway by Jake Walman

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  26. 3rd·16:28

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Jack Roslovic

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  27. 3rd·16:28

    Goalie Stopped

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  28. 3rd·16:26

    Vasily Podkolzin Wrist Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  29. 3rd·16:01

    Giveaway by Connor McMichael

    WSH 5·EDM 4

  30. 3rd·15:55

    Justin Sourdif Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 5·EDM 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

27

Shots

40

20.0

PCT

20.0

12

PIM

10

25

Faceoffs W

26

17

Blocks

18

16

Giveaways

21

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +145/EDM -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR