Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at EDM?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1EDM

WSH

25-21-7

EDM

26-19-8

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -175

WSH · top performer

Connor McMichael

C · #24

2Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Evan Bouchard

D · #2

6Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	13:46
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	19:02
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	7:22
E. FrankC · #53	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	9:56
H. LapierreC · #29	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	6:34
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	14:56
C. McMichaelC · #24	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	17:59
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	15:29
A. ProtasC · #21	1	0	-3	4	0	1	0	17:34
J. SourdifRW · #34	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	15:17
D. StromeC · #17	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:35
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	2	0	0	0	2	2	19:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	2	-1	0	0	2	0	25:53
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	1	-2	1	0	3	2	25:34
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	23:38
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	21:27
R. SandinD · #38	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	5:08
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	2	0	0	2	2	14:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. LindgrenG · #79	40	6	34	.850	60:47

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	3	2	4	0	2	2	26:16
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:48
I. HowardLW · #53	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	9:12
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	1	3	6	0	1	0	24:06
M. JanmarkC · #13	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:25
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	0	0	4	0	4	7:02
A. MangiapaneLW · #88	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	9:39
C. McDavidC · #97	2	3	5	9	0	1	0	28:43
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	22:43
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	-2	3	3	1	2	11:19
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:58
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	12:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	3	3	5	8	1	2	0	29:25
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	3	0	1	2	0	19:59
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-1	0	0	2	2	15:07
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-2	1	0	3	0	17:26
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	12:37
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-4	2	0	2	0	18:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	12	3	9	.750	34:29
T. JarryG · #35	15	2	13	.867	24:29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 20

EDM4@

WSH7

Jan 25

WSH5@

EDM6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+14541%

EDM-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat WSH 6-5. E. Bouchard led the way — 3 G · 3 A · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
WSH	1	2	2	0	5
EDM	1	1	3	1	6

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · EDM won 2

WSH

EDM

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:47
Game End
WSH 5·EDM 6
OT·0:47
End of OT
WSH 5·EDM 6
OT·0:47
Connor McDavid Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (41), Leon Draisaitl (45)
· ·
WSH 5·EDM 6
OT·0:33
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl
WSH 5·EDM 5
OT·0:31
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
WSH 5·EDM 5
OT·0:25
Connor McDavid Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 5·EDM 5
OT·0:23
Giveaway by Connor McDavid
WSH 5·EDM 5
OT·0:00
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 5·EDM 5
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
WSH 5·EDM 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 5·EDM 5
3rd·19:46
Curtis Lazar hit Matt Roy
·
WSH 5·EDM 5
3rd·19:36
Trent Frederic Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
WSH 5·EDM 5
3rd·19:33
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
WSH 5·EDM 5
3rd·19:28
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Trent Frederic
·
WSH 5·EDM 5
3rd·19:28
Zach Hyman Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (58), Evan Bouchard (40)
· ·
WSH 5·EDM 5
3rd·19:19
Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·19:03
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·18:37
Connor McDavid Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·18:31
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Nic Dowd
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·18:27
Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·18:26
Connor McDavid Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·17:59
Zach Hyman Tip-In High and Wide Left
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·17:38
Connor McDavid Wrap-around saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·17:00
Martin Fehervary Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·16:44
Giveaway by Jake Walman
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·16:28
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Jack Roslovic
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·16:28
Goalie Stopped
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·16:26
Vasily Podkolzin Wrist Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·16:01
Giveaway by Connor McMichael
WSH 5·EDM 4
3rd·15:55
Justin Sourdif Deflected Wide Left
·
WSH 5·EDM 4

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +145/EDM -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Washington Capitals, 6–5 in overtime.

WSH +1.5 cashed (EDM won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
57.8%
P(EDM win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.8%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.8%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at EDM?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

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