Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at OTT?

The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

CAR

32-15-5

OTT

23-21-7

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesCAR leads series 1-0VegasCAR -135

CAR · top performer

Seth Jarvis

C · #24

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:35
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:41
W. CarrierLW · #28	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:23
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	17:44
T. HallLW · #71	1	0	1	1	0	0	12	9:59
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	13:23
S. JarvisC · #24	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:42
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:31
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:49
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	17:48
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:55
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	2	1	1	2	0	0	24:20
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	22:37
A. NikishinD · #21	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	16:30
J. NystromD · #64	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:40
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	0	0	5	0	23:36
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	2	2	0	4	17:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	37	1	36	.973	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	13:35
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	19:23
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	10:31
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	-1	3	6	0	0	19:21
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:42
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	1	1	2	3	1	2	17:17
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	4	3	3	0	16:22
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:52
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	4	2	0	0	16:09
T. StutzleC · #18	1	0	0	5	3	2	0	20:58
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	18:58
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	-3	2	2	2	0	11:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	19:11
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:54
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:26
J. SandersonD · #85	0	1	0	3	0	1	4	23:55
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	13:42
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	19	4	15	.789	56:08

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 18

OTT0@

CAR2

Apr 20

OTT2@

CAR3

Apr 23

CAR2@

OTT1

Apr 25

CAR4@

OTT2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-13557%

OTT+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat OTT 4-1. S. Jarvis led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	3	1	0	4
OTT	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · OTT won 0

CAR

OTT

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:59
Fabian Zetterlund Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:35
Lars Eller faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:35
Puck in Benches
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:13
Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:06
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:06
Icing
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:51
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:51
Goalie Stopped
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:49
Drake Batherson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:47
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:47
Icing
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:39
Dylan Cozens hit Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:36
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:35
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:35
Icing
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:24
Claude Giroux shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:22
Drake Batherson Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:21
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:21
Puck in Netting
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:18
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:17
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:17
Icing
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·17:43
Alexander Nikishin Wrist Shot Wide Right
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·17:36
Sean Walker hit Claude Giroux
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·17:34
Jalen Chatfield hit Ridly Greig
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·17:29
Takeaway by Shane Pinto
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·17:26
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Ridly Greig
·
CAR 4·OTT 1
3rd·17:17
Shane Pinto hit Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 4·OTT 1

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -135/OTT +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 4–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.1%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.1%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at OTT?: The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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