Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

MTL

28-17-7

BOS

30-20-2

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-1VegasBOS -115

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

3Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Morgan Geekie

C · #39

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:05
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	3	3	1	2	11:17
C. CaufieldRW · #13	3	0	1	6	0	0	0	19:14
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	0	5	7:57
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	16:11
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:11
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:19
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:42
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:43
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	0	4	1	0	0	19:53
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	21:25
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	16:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	16:47
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	20:58
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	16:27
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	26:32
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	23:37
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	9:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MontembeaultG · #35	20	4	16	.800	57:24

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	1	0	0	4	2	2	0	16:51
M. GeekieC · #39	2	0	1	3	2	1	0	18:37
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	10:21
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:26
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:15
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:59
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:25
F. MintenC · #93	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	12:23
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:05
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	1	-1	6	1	0	2	19:52
A. SteevesC · #21	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	8:35
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	0	2	0	1	2	19:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	0	3	1	5	14:54
H. LindholmD · #27	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	21:56
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	15:52
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	3	-1	0	2	2	0	27:43
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	19:30
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	25	3	22	.880	59:36

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS leads series 2-1

Nov 16

BOS3@

MTL2

Dec 24

MTL6@

BOS2

Jan 25

MTL3@

BOS4today

Mar 17

BOS2@

MTL3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-10551%

BOS-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat MTL 4-3. M. Geekie led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	2	0	3
BOS	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · BOS won 1

MTL

BOS

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·19:48
Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·19:34
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·19:24
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·19:24
Icing
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·19:22
Casey Mittelstadt Wrist Shot Wide Left
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·19:06
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Viktor Arvidsson
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·19:00
Mike Matheson Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·18:54
Noah Dobson Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·18:50
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·18:50
Icing
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·18:04
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·17:48
Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·17:24
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·17:24
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·17:22
Mike Matheson shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·17:00
Giveaway by Ivan Demidov
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Pavel Zacha
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·16:07
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Pavel Zacha
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·16:03
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·16:03
Goalie Stopped
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·16:01
Noah Dobson Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:41
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Jake Evans
· ·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:41
Puck in Benches
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:27
Andrew Peeke Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·14:51
Charlie McAvoy hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·14:20
Viktor Arvidsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·14:18
Viktor Arvidsson Backhand saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 3·BOS 4
3rd·14:07
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Casey Mittelstadt
·
MTL 3·BOS 4

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -105/BOS -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Montreal Canadiens, 4–3.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensBoston Bruins

Elsewhere in the NHL