NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

21-16-13

STL

19-24-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesLA leads series 2-0VegasLA -148

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 5–4.

STL +1.5 cashed (LA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LA · top performer

Alex Laferriere

RW · #14

2Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Jordan Kyrou

RW · #25

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

LA21-16-13

STL19-24-9

LA21-16-13STL19-24-9

21-16-13

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

STL

19-24-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

LA leads series 2-0

Oct 22

LA2@

STL1

Jan 25

LA5@

STL4today

Apr 2

STL1@

LA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-14860%

STL+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat STL 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
LA	1	2	1	0	1	5
STL	0	3	1	0	0	4

Period scoring

LA won 2 · STL won 1

STL

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Trevor Moore Goal Snap Shot
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Dalibor Dvorsky Goal Backhand
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Kevin Fiala Backhand Hit Right Post
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Jordan Kyrou Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Jake Neighbours Backhand saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Adrian Kempe Goal Wrist Shot
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
LA 2·STL 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:54
Pavel Buchnevich Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:35
Pavel Buchnevich Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:27
Jordan Kyrou hit Adrian Kempe
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:19
Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Adrian Kempe
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:19
Goalie Stopped
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:16
Jimmy Snuggerud Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:08
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Jimmy Snuggerud
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:01
Kevin Fiala shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:59
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:58
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:53
Kevin Fiala Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:13
Giveaway by Joel Armia
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:09
Joel Armia shot blocked by Jimmy Snuggerud
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·2:29
Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·1:42
Dalibor Dvorsky Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·1:01
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·0:00
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
LA 4·STL 4

Team stats

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA -148/STL +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 skaters with EDGE

Philip BrobergSTL · D
BURSTS15898
Colton ParaykoSTL · D
BURSTS9494
Cam FowlerSTL · D
DIST MI260.294
Pavel BuchnevichSTL · LW
DIST MI234.892
Justin FaulkDET · D
BURSTS6990

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

STL vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

Dylan HollowaySTL
3.1± 1.3high
Alex LaferriereLA
3.0± 1.6high
Quinton ByfieldLA
3.0± 2.2high

Goals

Robert ThomasSTL
0.7± 1.2high
Adrian KempeLA
0.5± 0.7high
Quinton ByfieldLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Robert ThomasSTL
1.4± 1.1high
Dylan HollowaySTL
1.2± 1.1high
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL
1.0± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands