Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

21-16-13

STL

19-24-9

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesLA leads series 2-0VegasLA -148

LA · top performer

Alex Laferriere

RW · #14

2Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Jordan Kyrou

RW · #25

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	16:36
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:24
K. FialaLW · #22	0	0	-1	1	2	1	2	18:54
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	1	1	0	2	0	5	7:16
A. KempeRW · #9	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	21:16
A. KuzmenkoLW · #96	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	14:12
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	1	1	4	3	0	0	20:11
J. MalottLW · #39	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	7:06
T. MooreLW · #12	1	0	0	5	2	0	0	19:43
C. PerryRW · #10	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:00
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	14:02
T. WardRW · #52	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	1	-1	1	0	2	0	21:46
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:51
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	1	2	4	1	3	4	21:50
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	26:34
B. DumoulinD · #2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:23
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	2	3	0	3	0	14:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	29	4	25	.862	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:59
N. BjugstadC · #77	0	0	-2	2	2	0	5	9:26
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	20:15
D. DvorskyRW · #54	1	0	2	2	1	1	2	17:52
M. JosephRW · #71	0	1	0	0	2	2	0	11:46
J. KyrouRW · #25	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	19:41
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	16:30
B. SchennC · #10	1	0	-1	1	2	2	0	19:43
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	1	-1	2	0	2	0	19:05
O. StenbergC · #28	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	14:05
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	-2	0	3	1	0	9:36
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	8:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	25:41
J. FaulkD · #72	0	1	0	2	1	3	0	22:48
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:21
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	16:39
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	-1	1	1	4	0	23:03
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	15:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	28	4	24	.857	64:44

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA leads series 2-0

Oct 22

LA2@

STL1

Jan 25

LA5@

STL4today

Apr 2

STL1@

LA2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-14860%

STL+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat STL 5-4. A. Laferriere led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
LA	1	2	1	0	1	5
STL	0	3	1	0	0	4

Period scoring

LA won 2 · STL won 1

STL

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Trevor Moore Goal Snap Shot
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Dalibor Dvorsky Goal Backhand
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Kevin Fiala Backhand Hit Right Post
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Jordan Kyrou Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Jake Neighbours Backhand saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Adrian Kempe Goal Wrist Shot
LA 2·STL 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
LA 2·STL 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:54
Pavel Buchnevich Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:35
Pavel Buchnevich Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:27
Jordan Kyrou hit Adrian Kempe
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:19
Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Adrian Kempe
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:19
Goalie Stopped
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:16
Jimmy Snuggerud Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:08
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Jimmy Snuggerud
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·4:01
Kevin Fiala shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:59
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:58
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:53
Kevin Fiala Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:13
Giveaway by Joel Armia
LA 4·STL 4
OT·3:09
Joel Armia shot blocked by Jimmy Snuggerud
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·2:29
Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·1:42
Dalibor Dvorsky Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·1:01
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
LA 4·STL 4
OT·0:00
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
LA 4·STL 4

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA -148/STL +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 5–4.

STL +1.5 cashed (LA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.5%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.5%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL