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FINAL+5BUF
BUF

BUF

29-17-5

50
NYI

NYI

27-19-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesBUF leads series 2-0VegasNYI -110

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into New York Islanders and beat them, 5–0.

BUF +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Ryan McLeod

Ryan McLeod

C · #71

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

NYI
Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
0
BUF29-17-5NYI27-19-5
BUF

BUF

29-17-5

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYI

NYI

27-19-5

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

BUF leads series 2-0

Dec 20NYINYI2@BUFBUF3
Jan 24BUFBUF5@NYINYI0today
Mar 31NYINYI3@BUFBUF4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-11052%
NYINYI-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NYI 5-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF0235
NYI0000

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · NYI won 0

0
0

1

2
0

2

3
0

3

BUF
NYI

Play-by-play · 285 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  3. 3rd·18:46

    Giveaway by Zach Metsa

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  4. 3rd·17:53

    Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  5. 3rd·17:53

    Scott Mayfield Cross-checking against Zach Benson

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  6. 3rd·17:53

    Zach Benson Slashing against Scott Mayfield

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  7. 3rd·17:48

    Adam Pelech hit Zach Benson

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  8. 3rd·17:34

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Casey Cizikas

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  9. 3rd·17:34

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  10. 3rd·17:32

    Tony DeAngelo Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  11. 3rd·17:07

    Adam Boqvist shot blocked by Max Shabanov

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  12. 3rd·16:43

    Takeaway by Ryan McLeod

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  13. 3rd·15:38

    Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  14. 3rd·15:24

    Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  15. 3rd·15:24

    TV Timeout

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  16. 3rd·15:24

    Michael Kesselring Cross-checking against Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  17. 3rd·14:38

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Noah Ostlund

    ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  18. 3rd·14:38

    Alex Tuch Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (20), Michael Kesselring (1)

    · ·

    BUF 5·NYI 0

  19. 3rd·14:02

    Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 4·NYI 0

  20. 3rd·14:02

    Rasmus Dahlin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (15)

    ·

    BUF 4·NYI 0

  21. 3rd·13:55

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  22. 3rd·13:55

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  23. 3rd·13:53

    Emil Heineman Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  24. 3rd·13:47

    Bo Horvat shot blocked by Jason Zucker

    ·

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  25. 3rd·13:39

    Emil Heineman shot blocked by Jason Zucker

    ·

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  26. 3rd·13:33

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  27. 3rd·13:33

    Icing

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  28. 3rd·12:51

    Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  29. 3rd·12:51

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·NYI 0

  30. 3rd·12:47

    Kyle MacLean Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·NYI 0

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

21

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

6

13

Faceoffs W

37

11

Blocks

13

14

Giveaways

16

7

Takeaways

5

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -110/NYI -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Bo HorvatNYI · C
    SHOT MPH93.494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR