Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5BUF

BUF

29-17-5

NYI

27-19-5

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesBUF leads series 2-0VegasNYI -110

BUF · top performer

Jason Zucker

LW · #17

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Emil Heineman

LW · #51

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	17:32
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	15:19
K. HeleniusC · #94	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:03
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:44
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	12:44
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:26
R. McLeodC · #71	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	18:14
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:56
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	13:12
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	17:06
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	2	1	0	2	0	17:57
J. ZuckerLW · #17	2	0	2	3	0	2	0	13:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:18
R. DahlinD · #26	1	0	4	3	2	0	0	24:44
M. KesselringD · #8	0	1	1	1	0	3	2	13:45
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:14
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	24:30
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	2	4	1	2	1	2	21:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	26	0	26	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:45
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	12:43
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	17:18
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	-1	0	0	4	0	12:15
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	-2	6	3	0	0	16:36
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	19:51
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	-2	4	2	0	0	19:20
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	11:28
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	12:35
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	16:58
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	-2	3	3	0	0	15:01
M. ShabanovRW · #49	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:54
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	21:28
I. GeorgeD · #36	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	13:56
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-2	1	2	2	2	19:26
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	-3	1	3	1	0	20:26
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	23:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	20	4	16	.800	58:03

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF leads series 2-0

Dec 20

NYI2@

BUF3

Jan 24

BUF5@

NYI0today

Mar 31

NYI3@

BUF4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-11052%

NYI-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NYI 5-0. J. Zucker led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	0	2	3	5
NYI	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · NYI won 0

BUF

NYI

Play-by-play · 285 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·18:46
Giveaway by Zach Metsa
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·17:53
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·17:53
Scott Mayfield Cross-checking against Zach Benson
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·17:53
Zach Benson Slashing against Scott Mayfield
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·17:48
Adam Pelech hit Zach Benson
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·17:34
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·17:34
Goalie Stopped
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·17:32
Tony DeAngelo Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·17:07
Adam Boqvist shot blocked by Max Shabanov
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·16:43
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·15:38
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·15:24
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·15:24
TV Timeout
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·15:24
Michael Kesselring Cross-checking against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·14:38
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·14:38
Alex Tuch Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (20), Michael Kesselring (1)
· ·
BUF 5·NYI 0
3rd·14:02
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 4·NYI 0
3rd·14:02
Rasmus Dahlin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (15)
·
BUF 4·NYI 0
3rd·13:55
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·13:55
Goalie Stopped
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·13:53
Emil Heineman Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·13:47
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Jason Zucker
·
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·13:39
Emil Heineman shot blocked by Jason Zucker
·
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·13:33
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·13:33
Icing
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·12:51
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·12:51
Goalie Stopped
BUF 3·NYI 0
3rd·12:47
Kyle MacLean Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 3·NYI 0

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -110/NYI -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into New York Islanders and beat them, 5–0.

BUF +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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Elsewhere in the NHL