Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3UTA

UTA

27-20-4

NSH

24-23-4

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesUTA leads series 2-1VegasUTAH -115

UTA · top performer

Barrett Hayton

C · #27

2Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Jonathan Marchessault

RW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ButLW · #19	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	11:51
M. CarconeLW · #53	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	15:10
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	2	2	2	2	1	0	17:06
B. HaytonC · #27	1	1	0	7	1	0	0	15:10
C. KellerRW · #9	1	0	2	4	0	1	0	17:52
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:35
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:11
J. PeterkaRW · #77	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:08
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	19:21
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:41
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	10:45
K. YamamotoRW · #56	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	14:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	1	0	3	2	0	19:42
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	14:53
S. DurziD · #50	0	2	1	2	0	3	0	20:14
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	18:28
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:21
M. SergachevD · #98	0	3	1	1	1	1	0	23:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	29	2	27	.931	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	16:39
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	14:31
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	-2	3	2	0	0	18:04
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	14:36
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	10:37
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:16
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:32
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	-3	2	0	1	0	21:23
C. SmithRW · #36	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	15:51
S. StamkosC · #91	1	0	-1	2	1	0	0	18:58
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	7:26
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	12:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	1	1	0	4	0	10:56
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	-3	1	2	0	0	14:41
R. JosiD · #59	0	1	-3	4	1	4	2	29:13
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:15
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	1	-1	0	4	0	0	25:03
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	17:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	30	4	26	.867	57:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

UTA leads series 2-1

Oct 12

UTA3@

NSH2

Dec 30

NSH4@

UTA3

Jan 24

UTA5@

NSH2today

Apr 10

NSH1@

UTA4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA-11553%

NSH-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat NSH 5-2. B. Hayton led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	0	3	2	5
NSH	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · NSH won 1

UTA

NSH

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·19:59
Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Ian Cole
·
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·19:27
Roman Josi Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·19:24
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·19:24
Nick DeSimone Delaying Game - Puck over glass
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·19:19
Tyson Jost Snap Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·18:55
Brandon Tanev shot blocked by Justin Barron
·
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·18:46
Ozzy Wiesblatt Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·18:28
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·18:28
JJ Peterka Goal (18) , assists: Dylan Guenther (21), Barrett Hayton (10)
· ·
UTA 5·NSH 2
3rd·18:20
Matthew Wood Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·18:19
Matthew Wood Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·17:22
Clayton Keller shot blocked by Roman Josi
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·16:58
Clayton Keller shot blocked by Roman Josi
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·16:41
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Jack McBain
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·16:41
Goalie Stopped
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·16:39
Roman Josi Slap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·16:36
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Jack McBain
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·16:36
Icing
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·16:33
Dylan Guenther Snap Shot Wide Right
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·15:09
Mikhail Sergachev hit Luke Evangelista
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·15:01
Brandon Tanev hit Nick Blankenburg
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·15:01
Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Sean Durzi
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·14:47
Takeaway by Steven Stamkos
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·14:43
Steven Stamkos Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·14:33
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·14:33
Puck in Benches
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·14:16
Roman Josi Backhand Wide Right
·
UTA 4·NSH 2
3rd·14:00
Nick DeSimone hit Tyson Jost
·
UTA 4·NSH 2

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -115/NSH -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 5–2.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(NSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.2%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.2%
P(NSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Utah MammothNashville Predators

Elsewhere in the NHL