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FINAL+3UTA
UTA

UTA

27-20-4

52
NSH

NSH

24-23-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesUTA leads series 2-1VegasUTAH -115

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 5–2.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Jonathan Marchessault

Jonathan Marchessault

RW · #81

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
2
UTA27-20-4NSH24-23-4
UTA

UTA

27-20-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

24-23-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

UTA leads series 2-1

Oct 12UTAUTA3@NSHNSH2
Dec 30NSHNSH4@UTAUTA3
Jan 24UTAUTA5@NSHNSH2today
Apr 10NSHNSH1@UTAUTA4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA-11553%
NSHNSH-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat NSH 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA0325
NSH1102

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · NSH won 1

0
1

1

3
1

2

2
0

3

UTA
NSH

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Ian Cole

    ·

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  4. 3rd·19:27

    Roman Josi Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  5. 3rd·19:24

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  6. 3rd·19:24

    Nick DeSimone Delaying Game - Puck over glass

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  7. 3rd·19:19

    Tyson Jost Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  8. 3rd·18:55

    Brandon Tanev shot blocked by Justin Barron

    ·

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  9. 3rd·18:46

    Ozzy Wiesblatt Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  10. 3rd·18:28

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  11. 3rd·18:28

    JJ Peterka Goal (18) , assists: Dylan Guenther (21), Barrett Hayton (10)

    · ·

    UTA 5·NSH 2

  12. 3rd·18:20

    Matthew Wood Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  13. 3rd·18:19

    Matthew Wood Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  14. 3rd·17:22

    Clayton Keller shot blocked by Roman Josi

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  15. 3rd·16:58

    Clayton Keller shot blocked by Roman Josi

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  16. 3rd·16:41

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Jack McBain

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  17. 3rd·16:41

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  18. 3rd·16:39

    Roman Josi Slap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  19. 3rd·16:36

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Jack McBain

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  20. 3rd·16:36

    Icing

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  21. 3rd·16:33

    Dylan Guenther Snap Shot Wide Right

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  22. 3rd·15:09

    Mikhail Sergachev hit Luke Evangelista

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  23. 3rd·15:01

    Brandon Tanev hit Nick Blankenburg

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  24. 3rd·15:01

    Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Sean Durzi

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  25. 3rd·14:47

    Takeaway by Steven Stamkos

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  26. 3rd·14:43

    Steven Stamkos Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  27. 3rd·14:33

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  28. 3rd·14:33

    Puck in Benches

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  29. 3rd·14:16

    Roman Josi Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

  30. 3rd·14:00

    Nick DeSimone hit Tyson Jost

    ·

    UTA 4·NSH 2

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

30

Shots

29

50.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

4

28

Faceoffs W

24

13

Blocks

13

23

Giveaways

15

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -115/NSH -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Nick BlankenburgCOL · D
    SKATE MPH22.591
  • Roman JosiNSH · D
    DIST MI245.490

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR