Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at WPG?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4DET

DET

32-16-5

WPG

20-24-7

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasWPG -125

DET · top performer

J.T. Compher

LW · #37

2Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	12:50
J.T. CompherLW · #37	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:32
A. CoppC · #18	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	17:32
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	19:25
E. FinnieC · #58	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	10:51
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	19:07
M. KasperC · #92	1	1	2	3	6	0	0	14:10
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:19
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:44
L. RaymondLW · #23	1	1	1	3	2	2	0	18:22
E. SoderblomLW · #85	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:14
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	11:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	1	2	0	1	2	0	18:32
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	0	2	4	2	2	19:20
T. HamonicD · #52	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	15:03
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:17
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:29
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	28:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	1	0	0	2	0	4	11:02
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	0	-3	5	0	1	0	22:28
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:53
C. KoepkeLW · #45	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:18
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	15:16
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	0	-1	3	0	0	2	14:48
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:52
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	10:57
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	10:17
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	21:39
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	12:10
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-3	0	1	1	0	15:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-1	1	2	4	0	22:25
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	-2	3	0	2	0	23:17
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	18:56
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:16
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	-2	0	3	2	0	13:58
L. StanleyD · #64	0	1	-3	3	3	2	0	16:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	30	4	26	.867	58:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Dec 31

WPG1@

DET2

Jan 25

DET5@

WPG1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+10549%

WPG-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat WPG 5-1. J.T. Compher led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	0	1	4	5
WPG	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

DET won 1 · WPG won 0

DET

WPG

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 5·WPG 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 5·WPG 1
3rd·18:43
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Michael Rasmussen
·
DET 5·WPG 1
3rd·18:43
Marco Kasper Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (40)
·
DET 5·WPG 1
3rd·18:34
Luke Schenn shot blocked by Lucas Raymond
·
DET 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:11
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
DET 4·WPG 1
3rd·18:11
Alex DeBrincat Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (24), Patrick Kane (22)
· ·
DET 4·WPG 1
3rd·17:30
Elias Salomonsson shot blocked by Mason Appleton
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·17:20
Jonathan Toews Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:33
Giveaway by Lucas Raymond
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:06
Nino Niederreiter Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:53
Takeaway by Moritz Seider
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:47
Cole Koepke shot blocked by Moritz Seider
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:47
Giveaway by Jacob Bernard-Docker
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:37
Giveaway by Alex DeBrincat
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:25
Tanner Pearson hit Andrew Copp
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:22
Morgan Barron shot blocked by Moritz Seider
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:20
Tanner Pearson shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·14:53
Mason Appleton hit Jonathan Toews
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·14:49
Michael Rasmussen Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·14:41
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·14:41
Icing
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·13:47
Josh Morrissey shot blocked by Patrick Kane
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·13:02
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·13:02
Icing
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·12:48
Elias Salomonsson Slap Shot Wide Right
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·12:29
Elias Salomonsson Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·12:28
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·12:28
Goalie Stopped
DET 3·WPG 1
3rd·12:26
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·WPG 1

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET +105/WPG -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 5–1.

DET +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
47.8%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
47.8%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
47.8%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at WPG?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Detroit Red WingsWinnipeg Jets

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