NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CBJ

32-14-4

CBJ

24-20-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesCBJ lead series 2-0VegasTB -115

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 8–5.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

4Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Mason Marchment

LW · #17

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TB32-14-4

CBJ24-20-7

TB32-14-4CBJ24-20-7

32-14-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CBJ

24-20-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

CBJ lead series 2-0

Oct 18

TB2@

CBJ3

Jan 25

TB5@

CBJ8today

Mar 10

CBJ5@

TB2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-11553%

CBJ-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat TB 8-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	2	2	1	5
CBJ	4	2	2	8

Period scoring

TB won 0 · CBJ won 2

CBJ

Play-by-play · 321 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 5·CBJ 8
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 5·CBJ 8
3rd·19:35
Dominic James faceoff won against Isac Lundeström
·
TB 5·CBJ 8
3rd·19:35
Mason Marchment Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (20), Kirill Marchenko (25)
· ·
TB 5·CBJ 8
3rd·19:28
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·19:20
Mason Marchment Wrist Shot Wide Right
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·19:14
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:58
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:54
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:54
Timeout - Visitor
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:54
Jake Guentzel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (52), Anthony Cirelli (20)
· ·
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:39
Brandon Hagel hit Damon Severson
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:27
Anthony Cirelli Tip-In Wide Left
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:17
Dmitri Voronkov hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:12
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:06
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:03
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mathieu Olivier
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·17:49
J.J. Moser Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·17:39
Oliver Bjorkstrand Slap Shot High and Wide Left
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·17:17
Ivan Provorov Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·16:55
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·16:03
Zemgus Girgensons Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:42
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Dmitri Voronkov
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:31
Takeaway by Nick Paul
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:28
Giveaway by Jakob Pelletier
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:15
Dmitri Voronkov Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:04
Jakob Pelletier hit Egor Zamula
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·14:58
Giveaway by Damon Severson
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·14:55
Isac Lundeström faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·14:55
Sean Monahan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none
TB 4·CBJ 7

Team stats

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -115/CBJ -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
DIST MI299.999+
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
BURSTS30199
Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
DIST MI289.198
Adam FantilliCBJ · C
DIST MI256.696
Erik GudbransonCBJ · D
SHOT MPH98.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CBJ vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Zach WerenskiCBJ
3.4± 2.5high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high
Adam FantilliCBJ
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands