Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at CBJ?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CBJ

32-14-4

CBJ

24-20-7

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesCBJ lead series 2-0VegasTB -115

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

3Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Mason Marchment

LW · #17

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-2	5	0	0	0	15:58
A. CirelliC · #71	1	2	0	1	2	0	0	17:23
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	15:25
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	4:23
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-3	2	2	0	2	15:40
J. GuentzelC · #59	2	1	-1	4	0	0	0	19:03
B. HagelLW · #38	0	2	-1	2	2	0	0	18:04
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	14:04
D. JamesC · #17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:49
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	3	1	3	1	0	0	22:43
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:02
J. PelletierLW · #11	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	2	1	1	2	2	21:53
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	4:59
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-2	2	2	0	2	17:20
S. LundmarkD · #7	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	16:45
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	26:56
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	0	-4	3	3	1	0	27:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JohanssonG · #31	29	6	23	.793	57:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	1	2	3	2	2	2	0	17:13
A. FantilliC · #19	1	2	1	3	2	0	0	17:26
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	10:06
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	1	4	2	1	0	12:46
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	13:12
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:01
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	2	2	3	1	1	0	17:35
M. MarchmentLW · #17	3	1	2	3	1	0	2	17:23
S. MonahanC · #23	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	14:26
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	15:58
C. SillingerC · #4	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:43
D. VoronkovLW · #10	1	0	-1	3	5	1	2	13:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:34
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	1	3	1	3	2	0	23:23
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	3	1	0	1	2	23:38
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	26:16
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	2	0	3	1	0	0	26:35
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	30	5	25	.833	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ lead series 2-0

Oct 18

TB2@

CBJ3

Jan 25

TB5@

CBJ8today

Mar 10

CBJ5@

TB2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-11553%

CBJ-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat TB 8-5. M. Marchment led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	2	2	1	5
CBJ	4	2	2	8

Period scoring

TB won 0 · CBJ won 2

CBJ

Play-by-play · 321 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 5·CBJ 8
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 5·CBJ 8
3rd·19:35
Dominic James faceoff won against Isac Lundeström
·
TB 5·CBJ 8
3rd·19:35
Mason Marchment Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (20), Kirill Marchenko (25)
· ·
TB 5·CBJ 8
3rd·19:28
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·19:20
Mason Marchment Wrist Shot Wide Right
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·19:14
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:58
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:54
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:54
Timeout - Visitor
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:54
Jake Guentzel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (52), Anthony Cirelli (20)
· ·
TB 5·CBJ 7
3rd·18:39
Brandon Hagel hit Damon Severson
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:27
Anthony Cirelli Tip-In Wide Left
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:17
Dmitri Voronkov hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:12
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:06
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·18:03
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mathieu Olivier
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·17:49
J.J. Moser Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·17:39
Oliver Bjorkstrand Slap Shot High and Wide Left
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·17:17
Ivan Provorov Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·16:55
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·16:03
Zemgus Girgensons Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:42
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Dmitri Voronkov
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:31
Takeaway by Nick Paul
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:28
Giveaway by Jakob Pelletier
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:15
Dmitri Voronkov Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·15:04
Jakob Pelletier hit Egor Zamula
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·14:58
Giveaway by Damon Severson
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·14:55
Isac Lundeström faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
TB 4·CBJ 7
3rd·14:55
Sean Monahan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none
TB 4·CBJ 7

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -115/CBJ -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 8–5.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.6%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
45.6%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
45.6%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
45.6%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at CBJ?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningColumbus Blue Jackets

Elsewhere in the NHL