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FINAL+1FLA
FLA

FLA

27-20-3

43
MIN

MIN

29-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesFLA leads series 1-0VegasMIN -130

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

FLA +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

FLA
Brad Marchand

Brad Marchand

LW · #63

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Boldy

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
FLA27-20-3MIN29-14-10
FLA

FLA

27-20-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MIN

MIN

29-14-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

PIM

17

Season series

FLA leads series 1-0

Jan 25FLAFLA4@MINMIN3today
Mar 26MINMIN3@FLAFLA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLAFLA+11048%
MINMIN-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat MIN 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
FLA20114
MIN11103

Period scoring

FLA won 2 · MIN won 1

2
1

1

0
1

2

1
1

3

1
0

OT

FLA
MIN

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·3:00

    Game End

    FLA 4·MIN 3

  2. OT·3:00

    End of OT

    FLA 4·MIN 3

  3. OT·3:00

    Brad Marchand Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (24)

    ·

    FLA 4·MIN 3

  4. OT·0:00

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  5. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  6. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  7. 3rd·19:45

    Giveaway by Jake Middleton

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  8. 3rd·19:11

    Vladimir Tarasenko shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  9. 3rd·18:42

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Sam Bennett

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  10. 3rd·18:42

    Goalie Stopped

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  11. 3rd·18:39

    Anton Lundell Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  12. 3rd·18:36

    Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Yakov Trenin

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  13. 3rd·16:56

    Giveaway by Kirill Kaprizov

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  14. 3rd·16:54

    Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  15. 3rd·16:24

    Sam Bennett hit Kirill Kaprizov

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  16. 3rd·16:05

    Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Gustav Forsling

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  17. 3rd·15:11

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  18. 3rd·15:11

    Niko Mikkola Interference against Ryan Hartman

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  19. 3rd·15:11

    Goalie Stopped

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  20. 3rd·15:09

    Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  21. 3rd·14:31

    Jake Middleton shot blocked by Kirill Kaprizov

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  22. 3rd·14:12

    Giveaway by Jeff Petry

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  23. 3rd·13:26

    Marcus Foligno Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  24. 3rd·13:24

    Aaron Ekblad hit Danila Yurov

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  25. 3rd·13:19

    Danila Yurov faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  26. 3rd·13:19

    Icing

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  27. 3rd·13:11

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Danila Yurov

    ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  28. 3rd·13:11

    Sam Bennett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3), Brad Marchand (24)

    · ·

    FLA 3·MIN 3

  29. 3rd·13:05

    Sam Reinhart Tip-In saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    FLA 2·MIN 3

  30. 3rd·12:59

    Sam Reinhart Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 2·MIN 3

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

34

Shots

21

33.3

PCT

33.3

17

PIM

17

30

Faceoffs W

26

15

Blocks

10

13

Giveaways

20

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +110/MIN -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497
  • Matt BoldyMIN · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.696
  • Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIN vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Matt BoldyMIN
    3.8± 1.9high
  • Joel Eriksson EkMIN
    3.3± 1.6high
  • Ryan HartmanMIN
    3.0± 2.3high

Goals

  • Matt BoldyMIN
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Carter VerhaegheFLA
    0.4± 0.7high
  • Cole ReinhardtFLA
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Quinn HughesMIN
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Kirill KaprizovMIN
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Aleksander BarkovFLA
    1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR