Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

FLA

27-20-3

MIN

29-14-10

NHLSat, Jan 24FinalSeriesFLA leads series 1-0VegasMIN -130

FLA · top performer

Brad Marchand

LW · #63

3Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	1	0	-1	4	2	0	0	25:11
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	1	2	1	9	9:03
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7:02
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	19:35
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	3	1	2	2	14:42
B. MarchandLW · #63	2	1	0	6	0	0	2	18:12
S. ReinhartC · #13	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	26:22
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	14:35
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:36
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	2	-1	4	1	0	0	20:06
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	15:46
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	24:07
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:40
A. EkbladD · #5	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	20:57
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	1	0	0	5	0	27:16
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	21:00
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	21	3	18	.857	63:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	1	1	0	3	0	1	0	22:55
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	18:14
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	13:42
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	17:50
V. HinostrozaC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:18
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:00
K. KaprizovLW · #97	1	1	-2	7	2	1	4	25:32
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	8:51
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	14:10
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	9:45
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:32
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	22:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	27:44
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	-2	1	0	2	2	31:16
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:39
D. JiricekD · #55	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:24
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	0	7	17:35
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	34	4	30	.882	62:22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

FLA leads series 1-0

Jan 25

FLA4@

MIN3today

Mar 26

MIN3@

FLA2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+11048%

MIN-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat MIN 4-3. B. Marchand led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
FLA	2	0	1	1	4
MIN	1	1	1	0	3

Period scoring

FLA won 2 · MIN won 1

FLA

MIN

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:00
Game End
FLA 4·MIN 3
OT·3:00
End of OT
FLA 4·MIN 3
OT·3:00
Brad Marchand Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (24)
·
FLA 4·MIN 3
OT·0:00
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:45
Giveaway by Jake Middleton
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:11
Vladimir Tarasenko shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·18:42
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·18:42
Goalie Stopped
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·18:39
Anton Lundell Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·18:36
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Yakov Trenin
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:56
Giveaway by Kirill Kaprizov
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:54
Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:24
Sam Bennett hit Kirill Kaprizov
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:05
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Gustav Forsling
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:11
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:11
Niko Mikkola Interference against Ryan Hartman
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:11
Goalie Stopped
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·15:09
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·14:31
Jake Middleton shot blocked by Kirill Kaprizov
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·14:12
Giveaway by Jeff Petry
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·13:26
Marcus Foligno Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·13:24
Aaron Ekblad hit Danila Yurov
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·13:19
Danila Yurov faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·13:19
Icing
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·13:11
Anton Lundell faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·13:11
Sam Bennett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3), Brad Marchand (24)
· ·
FLA 3·MIN 3
3rd·13:05
Sam Reinhart Tip-In saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
FLA 2·MIN 3
3rd·12:59
Sam Reinhart Snap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·MIN 3

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +110/MIN -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

FLA +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
59.6%
P(MIN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.6%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.6%
P(MIN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Florida PanthersMinnesota Wild

Elsewhere in the NHL