TOR
42-33
DET
55-21
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons held off Toronto Raptors, 127–116.
DET -3.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 23.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TOR · top performer
RJ Barrett
F · #9
24
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
DET · top performer
Jalen Duren
C · #0
31
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 22 | 7-15 | 1-6 | 7-8 | -26 | 1 | 0 | |
| 31 | 24 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 8-10 | -21 | 6 | 2 | |
| 28 | 5 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 1-4 | -21 | 1 | 12 | |
| 23 | 13 | 6-9 | — | 1-2 | -16 | 4 | 1 | |
| 27 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 | — | -1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 16 | 7-13 | 2-4 | — | +4 | 6 | 2 | |
| 24 | 14 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 0-2 | +3 | 10 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 13 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 2-3 | +16 | 3 | 0 | |
| 29 | 6 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +5 | 0 | 12 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 116 | 43-89 | 10-29 | 20-31 | 35 | 33 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 12 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 3-4 | +7 | 5 | 6 | |
| 29 | 19 | 6-9 | 5-8 | 2-3 | +10 | 1 | 2 | |
| 35 | 31 | 12-13 | — | 7-7 | +7 | 9 | 3 | |
| 26 | 5 | 2-6 | — | 1-2 | +15 | 7 | 5 | |
| 37 | 21 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 9-9 | +13 | 5 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 10 | 5-6 | — | — | +4 | 2 | 5 | |
| 13 | 1 | 0-4 | — | 1-2 | +1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 19 | 12 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 22 | 8 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | -1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 8 | 8 | 3-4 | 2-2 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 127 | 44-73 | 13-23 | 26-30 | 34 | 33 | ||
| DNP: T. Smith | ||||||||
DNP: T. Smith
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
60
33
Ast
33
Season series
DET wins series 2-1
DET113@TOR95DET108@TOR119TOR116@DET127todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
219.5
Standard · -6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
TOR+13043%DET-15561%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
219.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:01
TORR. Barrett
FGame leader · 31 min
24 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
DETJ. Duren
CGame leader · 35 min30-point game
31 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
DET beat TOR 127-116. J. Duren paced them with 31 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. DET outscored the other side 41-27 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DET vs TOR
Starters vs bench
production by unitTORstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 16 REB · 19 AST
GS 54
Bench(7)
49 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST
GS 46
DETstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 27 REB · 21 AST
GS 79
Bench(6)
39 PTS · 7 REB · 12 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDuncan Robinson · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 20 | 34 | 27 | 35 | 116 |
| DET | 26 | 33 | 41 | 27 | 127 |
Period scoring
TOR won 2 · DET won 2
Q1
Barrett 10
Duren 11
Q2
Poeltl 8
Poeltl 7
Q3
Ingram 8
Duren 10
Q4
Mamukelashvili 12
Huerter 5
Shooting comparison
48%
43-89
FG
60%
44-73
34%
10-29
3PT
57%
13-23
65%
20-31
FT
87%
26-30
Play-by-play · 484 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·19.4
shot clock turnover
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·41.7
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·42.9
Sandro Mamukelashvili misses two point shot
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·49.7
Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·52.6
Duncan Robinson misses 23-foot three point jumper
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·1:05
Pistons defensive team rebound
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·1:06
Caris LeVert blocks Markelle Fultz 's 4-foot driving layup
·
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·1:15
A.J. Lawson defensive rebound
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·1:17
Tobias Harris misses 7-foot turnaround jump shot
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·1:23
Garrett Temple enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·1:23
Markelle Fultz enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 116·DET 127
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:40
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes driving layup
TOR 116·DET 127
- Q4·1:40
Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound
TOR 114·DET 127
- Q4·1:43
A.J. Lawson misses driving layup
TOR 114·DET 127
- Q4·1:53
Jalen Duren makes running layup (Caris LeVert assists)
·
TOR 114·DET 127
- Q4·1:59
Caris LeVert defensive rebound
TOR 114·DET 125
- Q4·2:00
Daniss Jenkins blocks Jamal Shead 's 7-foot driving layup
·
TOR 114·DET 125
- Q4·2:07
Caris LeVert enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
TOR 114·DET 125
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:07
8 second turnover
TOR 114·DET 125
- Q4·2:20
Collin Murray-Boyles makes 2-foot layup (Jamal Shead assists)
·
TOR 114·DET 125
- Q4·2:31
Jalen Duren makes layup (Kevin Huerter assists)
·
TOR 112·DET 125
- Q4·2:55
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jamal Shead assists)
·
TOR 112·DET 123
- Q4·3:11
Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three pointer
TOR 110·DET 123
+0.8pp
- Q4·3:16
Pistons offensive team rebound
TOR 110·DET 120
+0.7pp
- Q4·3:18
Collin Murray-Boyles blocks Kevin Huerter 's 23-foot three point jumper
·
TOR 110·DET 120
−0.5pp
- Q4·3:29
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
TOR 110·DET 120
- Q4·3:31
Collin Murray-Boyles misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 110·DET 120
+0.9pp
- Q4·3:31
Raptors offensive team rebound
TOR 110·DET 120
+1pp
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
DET
Home
43-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-73
48
FG %
60
10-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-23
20-31
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-30
33
Assists
33
13
Turnovers
18
Betting line
DET -3.5·O/U 219.5·TOR +130/DET -155
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798- Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
- RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.595
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Ausar ThompsonDET7.1± 3.2high
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR5.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
TOR
league avg
DET
54.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
48.1%
FG%
47.0
48.0%
114.3
PPG
114.9
▶115.9
29.2
Assists / G
25.0
27.0
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3