NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+24MIL

DAL

24-52

99123

MIL

30-45

NBATue, Mar 31FinalSeriesMIL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -2.5

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off Dallas Mavericks, 123–99. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL +2.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

12.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Ryan Rollins

G · #13

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	22	8	3-11	1-4	1-2	-14	5	2
D. GaffordF · #21	11	7	2-6	—	3-6	-15	4	0
C. FlaggF · #32	32	19	6-19	0-3	7-8	-27	10	3
M. ChristieG · #00	26	3	1-12	1-9	—	-26	3	1
R. NembhardG · #9	22	9	2-7	2-5	3-4	-2	0	4
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	15	3	1-1	—	1-2	-10	3	0
T. SmithF · #23	20	5	2-5	1-2	—	-3	6	2
M. CisseC · #30	22	8	4-7	—	—	+1	13	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	26	18	6-11	0-2	6-6	-22	2	2
J. PoulakidasG · #1	28	11	4-9	3-8	—	-5	2	1
A. JohnsonG · #8	16	8	3-8	2-3	—	+3	2	3
Team		99	34-96	10-36	21-28		50	18
DNP: M. Bagley III

DNP: M. Bagley III

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	23	20	9-17	0-6	2-3	+17	6	3
M. TurnerC · #3	27	10	3-8	3-6	1-2	+13	8	2
J. SimsC · #00	29	8	3-6	—	2-2	+28	9	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	23	13	4-10	4-9	1-2	+14	3	1
R. RollinsG · #13	36	24	8-14	4-9	4-4	+33	7	9
Bench
T. PrinceF · #12	22	6	2-10	2-9	—	-2	2	2
P. NanceF · #35	16	11	4-7	2-5	1-1	+4	6	3
A. AntetokounmpoF · #29	3	3	0-1	0-1	3-4	-2	0	0
O. DiengF · #21	29	11	4-10	1-3	2-3	+6	10	5
A. GreenG · #20	28	17	4-8	4-6	5-5	+11	6	2
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	5	0	0-1	—	—	-2	2	0
Team		123	41-92	20-54	21-26		59	28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

MIL leads series 2-0

Nov 11

MIL116@

DAL114

Jan 26

DAL0@

MIL0

Apr 1

DAL99@

MIL123today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-14259%

MIL+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDAL ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:36

DAL

C. Flagg

Game leader · 32 minDouble-double

19 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

MIL

R. Rollins

Game leader · 36 min

24 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST

How it ended

MIL beat DAL 123-99. R. Rollins led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 9 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST

GS 21

Bench(6)

53 PTS · 28 REB · 8 AST

GS 48

MILstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 33 REB · 16 AST

GS 67

Bench(6)

48 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL2nd Quarter · 9:36 · 33-44

+10pp→ 80% WP

Max Christie · bad pass turnover (Ousmane Dieng steals)

MIL3rd Quarter · 9:20 · 55-72

+6pp→ 95% WP

Cooper Flagg · misses 16-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	31	20	19	29	99
MIL	38	27	25	33	123

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · MIL won 4

Williams 7

Kuzma 9

Williams 5

Rollins 10

Flagg 4

Jr. 9

Flagg 6

Nembhard 19

DAL

MIL

Shooting comparison

DAL

MIL

35%

34-96

45%

41-92

28%

10-36

3PT

37%

20-54

75%

21-28

81%

21-26

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 96·MIL 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 96·MIL 123
Q4·14.8
shot clock turnover
DAL 96·MIL 123
Q4·38.9
Moussa Cisse makes alley oop dunk (AJ Johnson assists)
·
DAL 96·MIL 123
Q4·44.4
Tyler Smith defensive rebound
DAL 94·MIL 123
Q4·48.4
Alex Antetokounmpo misses 24-foot running jump shot
DAL 94·MIL 123
Q4·54.1
Ryan Nembhard lost ball turnover (Pete Nance steals)
·
DAL 94·MIL 123
Q4·1:04
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 94·MIL 123
Q4·1:04
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 94·MIL 122
Q4·1:04
Ryan Nembhard shooting foul
DAL 94·MIL 121
Q4·1:07
Pete Nance defensive rebound
DAL 94·MIL 121
Q4·1:11
AJ Johnson misses driving layup
DAL 94·MIL 121
Q4·1:22
Ousmane Dieng makes driving layup
DAL 94·MIL 121
Q4·1:37
Ryan Nembhard makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot
DAL 94·MIL 119
Q4·1:40
Pete Nance bad pass turnover (Ryan Nembhard steals)
·
DAL 91·MIL 119
Q4·1:49
Pete Nance defensive rebound
DAL 91·MIL 119
Q4·1:49
Moussa Cisse misses 4-foot two point shot
DAL 91·MIL 119
Q4·1:53
Tyler Smith offensive rebound
DAL 91·MIL 119
Q4·1:55
John Poulakidas misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
DAL 91·MIL 119
Q4·2:01
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 91·MIL 119
Q4·2:01
Bucks offensive team rebound
DAL 91·MIL 118
Q4·2:01
Alex Antetokounmpo misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 91·MIL 118
Q4·2:01
Tyler Smith personal foul
DAL 91·MIL 118
Q4·2:11
AJ Johnson makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot
DAL 91·MIL 118
Q4·2:13
Pete Nance bad pass turnover (AJ Johnson steals)
·
DAL 89·MIL 118
Q4·2:14
Pete Nance defensive rebound
DAL 89·MIL 118
Q4·2:16
AJ Johnson misses 7-foot two point shot
DAL 89·MIL 118
Q4·2:25
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
DAL 89·MIL 118
Q4·2:29
Taurean Prince misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 89·MIL 118
Q4·2:48
Alex Antetokounmpo enters the game for AJ Green
·
DAL 89·MIL 118

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

34-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-92

FG %

10-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-54

21-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-26

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DAL -2.5·O/U 231.5·DAL -142/MIL +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
25.0± 4.5high
Cooper FlaggDAL
23.6± 14.0high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
23.4± 13.6high

Rebounds

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
9.9± 4.4high
Daniel GaffordDAL
7.8± 3.6high
Moussa CisseDAL
7.8± 4.7high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan NembhardDAL
6.2± 5.9high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Myles TurnerMIL
1.8± 1.6high
Dereck Lively IIDAL
1.6± 1.3low
Moussa CisseDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Cooper FlaggDAL
1.4± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

MIL

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR