NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14LAL

CLE

47-29

113127

LAL

50-26

NBATue, Mar 31FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLAL -2.5

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

15.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

39.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	19	18	9-11	—	0-2	-7	4	2
E. MobleyC · #4	22	6	2-4	0-1	2-2	-18	4	4
J. HardenG · #1	28	17	6-13	2-5	3-5	-19	0	3
D. MitchellG · #45	24	10	4-10	0-3	2-2	-24	3	6
M. StrusG · #2	23	11	4-8	3-7	—	-10	3	1
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	12	2	1-4	0-2	—	+13	4	1
N. TomlinF · #35	22	9	4-9	1-5	—	-2	3	1
T. BryantC · #3	25	14	5-7	3-4	1-2	+5	6	0
D. SchroderG · #8	19	9	3-7	1-2	2-2	-14	3	3
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	16	0	0-3	0-3	—	+4	1	1
K. EllisG · #14	19	7	2-6	1-4	2-2	-11	2	0
T. ProctorG · #24	12	10	3-5	2-3	2-2	+13	2	4
Team		113	43-87	13-39	14-19		35	26

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	31	14	4-8	1-3	5-6	+4	5	6
J. LaRaviaF · #12	38	14	5-5	2-2	2-2	+23	7	0
D. AytonC · #5	28	18	8-13	—	2-3	+10	9	1
L. DoncicG · #77	34	42	13-26	6-13	10-10	+21	5	12
A. ReavesG · #15	37	19	6-16	2-9	5-5	+4	6	4
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	19	14	6-8	2-3	—	+10	1	0
D. TimmeF · #17	1	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
D. KnechtF · #4	1	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
A. ThieroF · #1	1	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
J. HayesC · #11	19	4	2-4	—	—	+9	3	1
L. KennardG · #10	23	2	1-2	—	—	+4	1	2
K. BufkinG · #18	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	0
B. JamesG · #9	7	0	—	—	—	+5	0	0
Team		127	45-83	13-31	24-26		37	26
DNP: M. Kleber, J. Vanderbilt

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

43-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-83

FG %

13-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-31

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 29

LAL99@

CLE129

Apr 1

CLE113@

LAL127today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+11048%

LAL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -2.5↗SpreadBet LAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat CLE 127-113. L. Doncic led the way with 42 points and 12 assists. LAL outscored the other side 45-30 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 14 REB · 16 AST

GS 45

Bench(7)

51 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST

GS 40

LALstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

107 PTS · 32 REB · 23 AST

GS 97

Bench(8)

20 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

GS 17

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	34	19	30	30	113
LAL	32	33	45	17	127

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · LAL won 2

Harden 9

Doncic 14

Allen 10

Ayton 9

Strus 8

Doncic 15

Bryant 12

Doncic 7

CLE

LAL

Shooting comparison

CLE

LAL

49%

43-87

54%

45-83

33%

13-39

3PT

42%

13-31

74%

14-19

92%

24-26

Play-by-play · 445 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 113·LAL 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 113·LAL 127
Q4·22.7
Thomas Bryant makes 1-foot dunk (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)
·
CLE 113·LAL 127
Q4·32.6
Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 111·LAL 127
Q4·36.7
Kobe Bufkin misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 111·LAL 127
Q4·57.4
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes tip shot
CLE 111·LAL 127
Q4·57.6
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
CLE 109·LAL 127
Q4·58.1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses tip shot
CLE 109·LAL 127
Q4·58.1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
CLE 109·LAL 127
Q4·58.9
Thomas Bryant misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 109·LAL 127
Q4·58.9
Thomas Bryant makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 109·LAL 127
Q4·58.9
Adou Thiero shooting foul
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:04
Thomas Bryant offensive rebound
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:07
Tyrese Proctor misses driving layup
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:21
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Luka Doncic
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:21
Drew Timme enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:21
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:21
Adou Thiero enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:21
Luka Doncic personal take foul
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:24
Luka Doncic makes running dunk (Jaxson Hayes assists)
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
Q4·1:28
Craig Porter Jr. bad pass turnover (Jaxson Hayes steals)
·
CLE 108·LAL 125
Q4·1:35
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
CLE 108·LAL 125
Q4·1:39
Luka Doncic misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 108·LAL 125
Q4·2:03
Thomas Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
CLE 108·LAL 125
Q4·2:09
Thomas Bryant offensive rebound
CLE 105·LAL 125
Q4·2:13
Craig Porter Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 105·LAL 125
Q4·2:14
Larry Nance Jr. offensive rebound
CLE 105·LAL 125
Q4·2:17
Tyrese Proctor misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 105·LAL 125
Q4·2:26
Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three pointer
CLE 105·LAL 125
Q4·2:30
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
CLE 105·LAL 122

Betting line

LAL -2.5·O/U 236.5·CLE +110/LAL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 127–113.

LAL -2.5 cashed (won by 14). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Matisse ThybulleLAL
1.7± 1.8high
Ziaire WilliamsLAL
1.7± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

LAL

55.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Team pages

Cleveland CavaliersLos Angeles Lakers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR