CLE
47-29
LAL
50-26
Recap · NBA
os Angeles Lakers held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 127–113.
LAL -2.5 cashed (won by 14). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CLE · top performer
Jarrett Allen
C · #31
18
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
LAL · top performer
Luka Doncic
G · #77
42
Pts
5
Reb
12
Ast
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 19 | 18 | 9-11 | — | 0-2 | -7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -18 | 4 | 4 | |
| 28 | 17 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 3-5 | -19 | 0 | 3 | |
| 24 | 10 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -24 | 3 | 6 | |
| 23 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-7 | — | -10 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | — | +13 | 4 | 1 | |
| 22 | 9 | 4-9 | 1-5 | — | -2 | 3 | 1 | |
| 25 | 14 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | +5 | 6 | 0 | |
| 19 | 9 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -14 | 3 | 3 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | +4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 19 | 7 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -11 | 2 | 0 | |
| 12 | 10 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +13 | 2 | 4 | |
| Team | 113 | 43-87 | 13-39 | 14-19 | 35 | 26 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 14 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 5-6 | +4 | 5 | 6 | |
| 38 | 14 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | +23 | 7 | 0 | |
| 28 | 18 | 8-13 | — | 2-3 | +10 | 9 | 1 | |
| 34 | 42 | 13-26 | 6-13 | 10-10 | +21 | 5 | 12 | |
| 37 | 19 | 6-16 | 2-9 | 5-5 | +4 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 14 | 6-8 | 2-3 | — | +10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 4 | 2-4 | — | — | +9 | 3 | 1 | |
| 23 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +4 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 0 | — | — | — | +5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 127 | 45-83 | 13-31 | 24-26 | 37 | 26 | ||
| DNP: M. Kleber, J. Vanderbilt | ||||||||
DNP: M. Kleber, J. Vanderbilt
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
54
26
Ast
26
Season series
Series tied 1-1
LAL99@CLE129CLE113@LAL127todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAL -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
236.5
High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CLE+11048%LAL-13057%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
236.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:15
CLEJ. Allen
CGame leader · 19 min
18 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
LALL. Doncic
GGame leader · 34 min40-point game
42 PTS · 5 REB · 12 AST
How it ended
LAL beat CLE 127-113. L. Doncic led the way with 42 points and 12 assists. LAL outscored the other side 45-30 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAL vs CLE
Starters vs bench
production by unitCLEstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 14 REB · 16 AST
GS 45
Bench(7)
51 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST
GS 40
LALstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
107 PTS · 32 REB · 23 AST
GS 97
Bench(8)
20 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 17
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 34 | 19 | 30 | 30 | 113 |
| LAL | 32 | 33 | 45 | 17 | 127 |
Period scoring
CLE won 2 · LAL won 2
Q1
Harden 9
Doncic 14
Q2
Allen 10
Ayton 9
Q3
Strus 8
Doncic 15
Q4
Bryant 12
Doncic 7
Shooting comparison
49%
43-87
FG
54%
45-83
33%
13-39
3PT
42%
13-31
74%
14-19
FT
92%
24-26
Play-by-play · 445 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 113·LAL 127
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 113·LAL 127
- Q4·22.7
Thomas Bryant makes 1-foot dunk (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)
·
CLE 113·LAL 127
- Q4·32.6
Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 111·LAL 127
- Q4·36.7
Kobe Bufkin misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 111·LAL 127
- Q4·57.4
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes tip shot
CLE 111·LAL 127
- Q4·57.6
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
CLE 109·LAL 127
- Q4·58.1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses tip shot
CLE 109·LAL 127
- Q4·58.1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
CLE 109·LAL 127
- Q4·58.9
Thomas Bryant misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 109·LAL 127
- Q4·58.9
Thomas Bryant makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 109·LAL 127
- Q4·58.9
Adou Thiero shooting foul
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:04
Thomas Bryant offensive rebound
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:07
Tyrese Proctor misses driving layup
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:21
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Luka Doncic
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:21
Drew Timme enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:21
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:21
Adou Thiero enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:21
Luka Doncic personal take foul
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:24
Luka Doncic makes running dunk (Jaxson Hayes assists)
·
CLE 108·LAL 127
- Q4·1:28
Craig Porter Jr. bad pass turnover (Jaxson Hayes steals)
·
CLE 108·LAL 125
- Q4·1:35
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
CLE 108·LAL 125
- Q4·1:39
Luka Doncic misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 108·LAL 125
- Q4·2:03
Thomas Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
CLE 108·LAL 125
- Q4·2:09
Thomas Bryant offensive rebound
CLE 105·LAL 125
- Q4·2:13
Craig Porter Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 105·LAL 125
- Q4·2:14
Larry Nance Jr. offensive rebound
CLE 105·LAL 125
- Q4·2:17
Tyrese Proctor misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 105·LAL 125
- Q4·2:26
Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three pointer
CLE 105·LAL 125
- Q4·2:30
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
CLE 105·LAL 122
Team stats
CLE
Away
Stat
LAL
Home
43-87
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
45-83
49
FG %
54
13-39
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-31
14-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
24-26
26
Assists
26
14
Turnovers
10
Betting line
LAL -2.5·O/U 236.5·CLE +110/LAL -130
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Deandre AytonLAL · CCONT10.399
Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998- Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.898
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.498
Austin ReavesLAL · GTOUCHES81.896
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAL vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- LeBron JamesLAL22.2± 5.8high
Rebounds
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- LeBron JamesLAL7.2± 2.6high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
- Deandre AytonLAL0.9± 0.6high
Steals
- Marcus SmartLAL2.1± 1.8high
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
CLE
league avg
LAL
55.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.0%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
▶49.9%
117.4
PPG
114.9
114.8
27.1
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.1