NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10POR

POR

39-38

114104

LAC

39-37

NBATue, Mar 31FinalSeriesLAC lead series 2-1VegasLAC -4.5

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers went into LA Clippers and beat them, 114–104.

POR +4.5 cashed (LAC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

POR · top performer

Deni Avdija

F · #8

27.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

John Collins

F · #20

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	33	17	7-16	3-9	—	-5	7	0
D. AvdijaF · #8	34	28	8-15	1-4	11-12	+8	11	8
D. ClinganC · #23	29	4	2-5	0-2	—	-12	4	1
J. HolidayG · #5	32	30	10-21	7-15	3-3	+6	6	2
S. HendersonG · #00	29	15	5-14	3-6	2-2	-3	3	2
Bench
K. MurrayF · #24	31	7	3-9	0-4	1-1	+19	7	6
R. Williams IIIC · #35	18	6	3-3	—	—	+22	7	1
M. ThybulleG · #4	24	5	2-5	1-4	—	+7	2	1
C. LoveG · #2	1	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
B. WesleyG · #1	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
S. CissokoG · #91	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	+8	1	1
Team		114	41-91	15-45	17-18		48	22
DNP: J. Grant, Y. Hansen, D. Lillard, J. Kent

DNP: J. Grant, Y. Hansen, D. Lillard, J. Kent

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	36	23	7-15	0-5	9-10	-6	8	3
J. CollinsF · #20	31	17	7-8	3-3	—	-9	6	1
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	23	1	0-2	0-2	1-2	+3	3	2
B. LopezC · #11	36	18	7-16	2-8	2-2	-11	7	2
D. GarlandG · #10	37	20	7-17	3-8	3-3	-7	2	4
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	6	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
K. DunnG · #8	20	3	1-2	—	1-2	-12	2	2
J. MillerG · #22	25	16	6-8	2-3	2-4	+3	2	3
B. MathurinG · #9	22	4	2-7	0-1	—	-18	0	0
T. Washington Jr.G · #15	1	0	—	—	—	+3	0	1
K. SandersG · #4	1	2	1-1	—	—	+3	0	1
C. ChristieG · #12	1	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
Team		104	38-76	10-30	18-23		30	19
DNP: B. Bogdanovic

DNP: B. Bogdanovic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

LAC lead series 2-1

Oct 27

POR107@

LAC114

Dec 27

LAC119@

POR103

Apr 1

POR114@

LAC104today

Apr 11

LAC97@

POR116

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+16438%

LAC-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -4.5↗SpreadBet LAC -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPOR ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 14pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:45

POR

D. Avdija

Game leader · 34 minDouble-double

28 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST

LAC

J. Collins

Game leader · 31 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

17 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

POR beat LAC 114-104. D. Avdija paced them with 28 PTS, 11 REB, 8 AST. POR outscored the other side 28-15 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 31 REB · 13 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 25

LACstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 65

Bench(7)

25 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR2nd Quarter · 7:09 · 48-37

+7pp→ 67% WP

Toumani Camara · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)

POR2nd Quarter · 3:45 · 56-39

+14pp→ 85% WP

Donovan Clingan · personal foul

LAC3rd Quarter · 10:21 · 64-50

+6pp→ 17% WP

Kawhi Leonard · makes technical free throw

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	34	28	29	23	114
LAC	31	15	28	30	104

Period scoring

POR won 3 · LAC won 1

Holiday 9

Collins 10

Avdija 10

Leonard 6

Avdija 11

Leonard 11

Holiday 11

Miller 12

POR

LAC

Shooting comparison

POR

LAC

45%

41-91

50%

38-76

33%

15-45

3PT

33%

10-30

94%

17-18

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 443 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 114·LAC 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 114·LAC 104
Q4·2.6
Kobe Sanders steps out of bounds turnover
POR 114·LAC 104
Q4·9.4
shot clock turnover
POR 114·LAC 104
Q4·33.4
Kobe Sanders makes 3-foot driving dunk (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)
·
POR 114·LAC 104
Q4·45.3
Caleb Love makes driving layup
POR 114·LAC 102
Q4·1:06
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Scoot Henderson
·
POR 112·LAC 102
Q4·1:06
Blake Wesley enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 112·LAC 102
Q4·1:06
Caleb Love enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
POR 112·LAC 102
Q4·1:06
Kobe Sanders steps out of bounds turnover
POR 112·LAC 102
Q4·1:07
Scoot Henderson lost ball turnover (Kobe Sanders steals)
·
POR 112·LAC 102
Q4·1:19
Jordan Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kobe Sanders assists)
·
POR 112·LAC 102
Q4·1:22
Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 112·LAC 99
Q4·1:22
Scoot Henderson enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
POR 112·LAC 99
Q4·1:22
TyTy Washington Jr. enters the game for John Collins
·
POR 112·LAC 99
Q4·1:22
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Brook Lopez
·
POR 112·LAC 99
Q4·1:22
Cam Christie enters the game for Darius Garland
·
POR 112·LAC 99
Q4·1:22
Kobe Sanders enters the game for Kawhi Leonard
·
POR 112·LAC 99
Q4·1:22
Clippers Full timeout
POR 112·LAC 99
Q4·1:22
Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)
·
POR 112·LAC 99
Q4·1:34
Jrue Holiday defensive rebound
POR 109·LAC 99
Q4·1:38
Darius Garland misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 109·LAC 99
−0.6pp
Q4·1:47
Deni Avdija lost ball turnover (John Collins steals)
·
POR 109·LAC 99
+0.9pp
Q4·2:00
Brook Lopez personal foul
POR 109·LAC 99
Q4·2:00
Toumani Camara offensive rebound
POR 109·LAC 99
−0.7pp
Q4·2:02
Jrue Holiday misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 109·LAC 99
Q4·2:28
John Collins makes tip shot
POR 109·LAC 99
Q4·2:29
John Collins offensive rebound
POR 109·LAC 97
Q4·2:31
Kawhi Leonard misses 28-foot three point jumper
POR 109·LAC 97
Q4·2:42
Darius Garland defensive rebound
POR 109·LAC 97

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

41-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-76

FG %

15-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-30

17-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

LAC -4.5·O/U 225.5·POR +164/LAC -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299+
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.697
Donovan ClinganPOR · C
CONT7.694
Toumani CamaraPOR · F
CONT6.489

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Damian LillardPOR
19.2± 8.2high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

LAC

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

114.6

PPG

114.9

113.9

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR