NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4ORL

PHX

42-34

111115

ORL

40-35

NBATue, Mar 31FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasORL -2.5

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Phoenix Suns, 115–111. Decided by 4.

ORL -2.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

26.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Jalen Suggs

G · #4

18.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	22	9	4-13	1-3	—	-4	5	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	25	5	2-2	—	1-2	-6	10	5
D. BookerG · #1	36	34	8-16	2-6	16-19	-14	3	7
C. GillespieG · #12	27	11	4-8	2-6	1-1	+5	2	3
J. GreenG · #4	20	8	3-10	0-5	2-2	+2	1	2
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	31	14	4-8	4-7	2-2	-3	9	4
R. FlemingF · #20	16	11	4-9	1-5	2-4	+7	4	0
K. MaluachC · #10	3	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
G. AllenG · #8	32	10	4-14	2-10	—	-5	2	1
J. GoodwinG · #23	29	9	2-8	2-4	3-5	+2	5	2
Team		111	35-88	14-46	27-35		41	24
DNP: C. Huntley, R. Dunn, J. Bouyea, K. Brea

DNP: C. Huntley, R. Dunn, J. Bouyea, K. Brea

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	37	19	6-14	1-3	6-9	+14	9	8
T. da SilvaF · #23	25	9	3-11	0-4	3-3	+7	3	0
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	28	15	4-7	1-1	6-7	+6	12	0
D. BaneG · #3	37	21	6-16	2-6	7-8	+5	6	5
J. SuggsG · #4	38	20	6-11	2-5	6-6	+15	8	7
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	4	4	2-2	—	—	-2	1	1
J. CainF · #8	20	12	4-5	2-2	2-2	+3	3	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	14	3	0-1	—	3-4	-3	2	1
J. CarterG · #2	22	0	0-6	0-5	—	-12	0	1
J. HowardG · #13	14	12	4-6	2-3	2-2	-13	2	0
Team		115	35-79	10-29	35-41		46	24
DNP: N. Penda, J. Richardson

DNP: N. Penda, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 21

ORL110@

PHX113

Mar 31

PHX111@

ORL115today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+11048%

ORL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -2.5↗SpreadBet ORL -2.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHX ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 22pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:33

PHX

D. Booker

Game leader · 36 min30-point game

34 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST

ORL

J. Suggs

Game leader · 38 min

20 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST

How it ended

ORL beat PHX 115-111. J. Suggs led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST. PHX outscored the other side 38-24 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 20 REB · 7 AST

GS 28

ORLstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 38 REB · 20 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL2nd Quarter · 10:33 · 21-33

+22pp→ 83% WP

Jalen Green · out of bounds lost ball turnover

PHX4th Quarter · 2:59 · 107-109

+15pp→ 53% WP

Desmond Bane · shooting foul

ORL4th Quarter · 2:20 · 108-109

+15pp→ 78% WP

Grayson Allen · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	21	35	38	17	111
ORL	28	42	24	21	115

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · ORL won 3

Booker 7

Suggs 9

Booker 8

Green 11

Booker 14

Banchero 8

Allen 5

Suggs 7

PHX

ORL

Shooting comparison

PHX

ORL

40%

35-88

44%

35-79

30%

14-46

3PT

34%

10-29

77%

27-35

85%

35-41

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 111·ORL 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 111·ORL 115
Q4·0.0
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 111·ORL 115
Q4·0.0
Dillon Brooks misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 111·ORL 115
+0.9pp
Q4·1.1
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHX 111·ORL 115
Q4·1.1
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Khaman Maluach
·
PHX 111·ORL 115
Q4·1.1
Suns Full timeout
PHX 111·ORL 115
Q4·1.1
Tristan da Silva makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 111·ORL 115
Q4·1.1
Tristan da Silva makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 111·ORL 114
Q4·1.1
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
PHX 111·ORL 113
Q4·1.1
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Grayson Allen
·
PHX 111·ORL 113
Q4·1.1
Grayson Allen personal foul
PHX 111·ORL 113
+4pp
Q4·3.1
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHX 111·ORL 113
Q4·3.1
Magic Full timeout
PHX 111·ORL 113
+0.7pp
Q4·3.6
Devin Booker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)
·
PHX 111·ORL 113
−4pp
Q4·6.7
Suns Full timeout
PHX 108·ORL 113
Q4·6.7
Desmond Bane makes 10-foot two point shot
PHX 108·ORL 113
+3pp
Q4·22.8
Collin Gillespie personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 108·ORL 111
+6pp
Q4·25.3
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
PHX 108·ORL 111
+3pp
Q4·27.7
Dillon Brooks misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 108·ORL 111
+9pp
Q4·43.5
Dillon Brooks defensive rebound
PHX 108·ORL 111
−2pp
Q4·46.7
Desmond Bane misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
PHX 108·ORL 111
−6pp
Q4·1:08
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
PHX 108·ORL 111
+3pp
Q4·1:11
Royce O'Neale misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 108·ORL 111
+8pp
Q4·1:27
Wendell Carter Jr. jumpball violation turnoverBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 108·ORL 111
−9pp
Q4·1:28
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
PHX 108·ORL 111
Q4·1:28
Devin Booker lost ball turnover (Wendell Carter Jr. steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
PHX 108·ORL 111
+9pp
Q4·1:35
Royce O'Neale defensive rebound
PHX 108·ORL 111
−2pp
Q4·1:37
Paolo Banchero misses 12-foot two point shot
PHX 108·ORL 111
−5pp
Q4·2:00
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
PHX 108·ORL 111
+2pp

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

35-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-79

FG %

14-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-29

27-35

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

35-41

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ORL -2.5·O/U 225.5·PHX +110/ORL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

ORL

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR