NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31CHA

CHA

40-36

11786

BKN

18-58

NBATue, Mar 31FinalSeriesCHA wins series 2-1VegasCHA -18.5

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 117–86. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -18.5 cashed (won by 31). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHA · top performer

Miles Bridges

F · #0

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Josh Minott

F · #00

9.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	24	19	7-12	1-4	4-4	+27	5	2
M. DiabateF · #14	27	10	4-6	—	2-2	+25	12	1
B. MillerF · #24	29	25	7-13	4-8	7-7	+30	1	3
L. BallG · #1	28	14	4-12	3-10	3-4	+24	7	9
K. KnueppelG · #7	25	8	4-12	0-3	—	+16	7	0
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	20	10	4-7	2-3	—	+2	2	2
X. TillmanF · #26	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	18	8	3-4	—	2-2	+3	3	0
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	4	2	1-1	—	—	+3	1	0
C. WhiteG · #3	21	16	5-12	1-6	5-6	+11	2	5
J. GreenG · #10	14	3	1-2	1-2	—	-3	0	0
T. MannG · #23	6	2	1-4	0-1	—	-2	2	2
A. ReevesG · #12	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	1
S. JamesG · #4	22	0	0-2	0-2	—	+15	5	3
Team		117	41-87	12-39	23-25		47	28

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsF · #1	24	10	4-10	1-2	1-2	-18	0	0
N. ClowneyF · #21	20	4	1-6	0-4	2-2	-23	3	0
N. ClaxtonC · #33	22	4	1-3	—	2-2	-16	4	3
D. PowellG · #4	28	10	3-9	2-6	2-2	-15	6	1
N. TraoreG · #88	23	10	4-8	0-2	2-2	-9	5	4
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	9	4	1-2	—	2-4	-4	1	0
E.J. LiddellF · #9	8	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	-4	2	0
J. MinottF · #00	23	14	5-12	1-7	3-3	-4	2	0
C. JohnsonF · #31	27	11	4-6	1-3	2-2	-18	4	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	9	2	0-2	0-2	2-2	-4	1	0
M. SmithG · #18	14	2	1-4	0-2	—	-9	0	2
T. EtienneG · #10	15	5	1-3	1-3	2-2	-9	0	1
B. SarafG · #77	19	7	2-6	1-3	2-2	-22	2	3
Team		86	28-73	7-35	23-27		30	14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

CHA wins series 2-1

Oct 22

BKN117@

CHA136

Dec 2

CHA103@

BKN116

Mar 31

CHA117@

BKN86today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -18.5

Between 10 and —

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-210095%

BKN+11008%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -18.5↗SpreadBet CHA -18.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

18.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHA ↔ BKN

CHA

M. Bridges

Game leader · 24 min

19 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST

BKN

J. Minott

Game leader · 23 min

14 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST

How it ended

CHA beat BKN 117-86. M. Bridges led with 19 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. CHA outscored the other side 35-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 32 REB · 15 AST

GS 70

Bench(9)

41 PTS · 15 REB · 13 AST

GS 31

BKNstarters 44% of pts

Starters(5)

38 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 20

Bench(8)

48 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 34

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	35	23	31	28	117
BKN	18	27	18	23	86

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · BKN won 1

Miller 16

Johnson 13

Diabate 6

Traore 6

Bridges 9

Williams 8

White 11

Minott 6

CHA

BKN

Shooting comparison

CHA

BKN

47%

41-87

38%

28-73

31%

12-39

3PT

20%

7-35

92%

23-25

85%

23-27

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·1.2
shot clock turnover
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·24.6
Tre Mann defensive rebound
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·27.7
E.J. Liddell misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·36.7
Nets defensive team rebound
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·38.2
Tre Mann misses 15-foot turnaround jump shot
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·56.8
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·1:00
Ochai Agbaji misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·1:13
Tre Mann makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Antonio Reeves assists)
·
CHA 117·BKN 86
Q4·1:38
Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 115·BKN 86
Q4·1:38
Xavier Tillman enters the game for Josh Green
·
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·1:38
Antonio Reeves enters the game for Sion James
·
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·1:38
Nets offensive team rebound
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·1:38
Jalen Wilson misses free throw 1 of 2
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·1:38
Josh Green shooting foul
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·1:44
Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·1:46
Tre Mann misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·1:51
Chaney Johnson bad pass turnover (Tre Mann steals)
·
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·1:55
Josh Green bad pass turnover (Chaney Johnson steals)
·
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·2:22
Jalen Wilson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
CHA 115·BKN 85
Q4·2:44
Pat Connaughton makes 2-foot layup (Tre Mann assists)
·
CHA 115·BKN 83
Q4·3:00
Tre Mann defensive rebound
CHA 113·BKN 83
Q4·3:02
Ochai Agbaji misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 113·BKN 83
Q4·3:28
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes 4-foot two point shot (Tre Mann assists)
·
CHA 113·BKN 83
Q4·3:38
E.J. Liddell makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 111·BKN 83
Q4·3:38
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Grant Williams
· ·
CHA 111·BKN 82
Q4·3:38
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 111·BKN 82
Q4·3:38
Nets offensive team rebound
CHA 111·BKN 82
Q4·3:38
E.J. Liddell misses free throw 1 of 2
CHA 111·BKN 82

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

41-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-73

FG %

12-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-35

23-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-27

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CHA -18.5·O/U 219.5·CHA -2100/BKN +1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs CHA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
LaMelo BallCHA
22.2± 8.0high
Brandon MillerCHA
18.8± 5.5high

Rebounds

Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high
Day'Ron SharpeBKN
6.5± 2.5high

Assists

LaMelo BallCHA
7.3± 2.5high
Nolan TraoreBKN
4.2± 2.3high
Ben SarafBKN
3.7± 1.9high

Blocks

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Nic ClaxtonBKN
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Ziaire WilliamsBKN
1.7± 1.6high
Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high
Trevon ScottBKN
1.3± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

BKN

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

45.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR