NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10MIN

MIN

22-13

125115

MIA

19-16

NBASat, Jan 3FinalSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasMIN -2.5

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

25.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Norman Powell

G · #24

13.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 22pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	39	23	10-17	2-6	1-1	+5	10	4
J. McDanielsF · #3	34	5	2-4	1-2	—	+1	2	3
R. GobertC · #27	32	13	5-7	0-1	3-3	+4	12	1
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	31	11	5-13	1-8	—	+24	8	4
A. EdwardsG · #5	38	33	10-19	2-8	11-14	-2	3	5
Bench
N. ReidC · #11	25	29	10-15	4-7	5-5	+11	4	3
M. ConleyG · #10	15	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	-3	1	3
J. ClarkG · #22	5	2	1-2	—	—	-6	0	0
B. HylandG · #8	21	4	2-6	0-4	—	+16	0	3
Team		125	46-85	11-38	22-25		40	26
DNP: J. Ingles, L. Miller, J. Juzang, R. Dillingham

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	28	12	4-12	2-7	2-2	-7	2	3
B. AdebayoC · #13	34	12	5-13	1-3	1-2	-9	9	4
K. WareC · #7	29	11	4-7	1-3	2-2	0	8	1
N. PowellG · #24	25	21	6-13	2-6	7-8	-6	1	1
D. MitchellG · #45	34	14	6-10	2-4	—	-7	3	6
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	16	9	3-8	3-8	0-1	-20	3	1
M. GardnerF · #15	5	7	3-3	1-1	—	+8	1	2
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	10	6	3-5	—	—	+8	3	1
N. JovicF · #5	28	14	4-7	1-3	5-5	-19	3	4
D. SmithG · #12	14	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-3	0	1
K. JakucionisG · #25	17	3	1-3	1-1	—	+5	4	3
Team		115	41-87	14-37	19-22		37	27
DNP: T. Herro, P. Larsson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

46-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-87

FG %

11-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-37

22-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Jan 3

MIN125@

MIA115today

Jan 7

MIA94@

MIN122

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-14259%

MIA+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat MIA 125-115. A. Edwards paced them with 33 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. Norman Powell's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 35 REB · 17 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 5 REB · 9 AST

GS 35

MIAstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST

GS 47

Bench(6)

45 PTS · 14 REB · 12 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN2nd Quarter · 4:41 · 48-38

+22pp→ 80% WP

Norman Powell · enters the game for Simone Fontecchio

MIA2nd Quarter · 10:59 · 29-27

+13pp→ 42% WP

Jaylen Clark · vs. Bam Adebayo (Bam Adebayo gains possession)

MIN3rd Quarter · 9:02 · 60-52

+18pp→ 78% WP

Donte DiVincenzo · misses 24-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	27	29	34	35	125
MIA	25	25	36	29	115

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · MIA won 1

Edwards 14

Jovic 7

Randle 9

Powell 18

Randle 12

Powell 30

Reid 9

Mitchell 7

MIN

MIA

Shooting comparison

MIN

MIA

54%

46-85

47%

41-87

29%

11-38

3PT

38%

14-37

88%

22-25

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 125·MIA 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 125·MIA 115
Q4·21.2
Myron Gardner makes 24-foot running jump shot (Simone Fontecchio assists)
·
MIN 125·MIA 115
Q4·24.9
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
MIN 125·MIA 112
Q4·29.1
Rudy Gobert misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 125·MIA 112
Q4·49.3
Kel'el Ware makes dunk (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
MIN 125·MIA 112
Q4·58.4
Mike Conley makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 125·MIA 110
Q4·58.4
Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 124·MIA 110
Q4·58.4
Kasparas Jakucionis personal foul
MIN 123·MIA 110
Q4·1:01
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
MIN 123·MIA 110
Q4·1:05
Simone Fontecchio misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 123·MIA 110
Q4·1:15
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 123·MIA 110
Q4·1:15
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 122·MIA 110
Q4·1:15
Kasparas Jakucionis shooting foul
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:29
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:32
Kel'el Ware misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:39
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:42
Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:54
Simone Fontecchio lost ball turnover (Julius Randle steals)
·
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:54
Julius Randle vs. Simone Fontecchio (Anthony Edwards gains possession)
· ·
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:57
Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Bones Hyland
·
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:57
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·1:57
Davion Mitchell misses driving layup
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·2:07
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·2:12
Julius Randle misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·2:25
Mike Conley enters the game for Jaden McDaniels
·
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·2:25
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·2:25
Anthony Edwards misses two point shot
MIN 121·MIA 110
Q4·2:34
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
MIN 121·MIA 110
−0.5pp
Q4·2:34
Simone Fontecchio misses technical free throw
MIN 121·MIA 110

Betting line

MIN -2.5·O/U 235.5·MIN -142/MIA +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves went into Miami Heat and beat them, 125–115.

MIN -2.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

MIA

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.8%

116.8

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Team pages

Minnesota TimberwolvesMiami Heat

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR