NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31BOS

BOS

22-12

146115

LAC

12-22

NBASat, Jan 3FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-0VegasLAC -1.5

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

39.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

John Collins

F · #20

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 12pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:04

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	21	8	3-9	2-8	—	+2	3	0
N. QuetaC · #88	23	8	4-8	0-1	—	+15	9	1
D. WhiteG · #9	37	29	10-20	5-12	4-5	+17	4	7
J. BrownG · #7	35	50	18-26	6-10	8-10	+21	3	5
P. PritchardG · #11	40	12	5-10	2-3	—	+27	4	8
Bench
J. MinottF · #8	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	1	0
L. GarzaC · #52	20	11	3-5	1-2	4-4	+17	6	3
A. SimonsG · #4	19	15	5-8	5-8	—	+18	3	4
B. ScheiermanG · #55	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	0	0
J. WalshG · #27	30	13	5-7	3-4	—	+24	13	2
H. GonzalezG · #28	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	+9	0	0
Team		146	53-96	24-51	16-19		46	30
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	34	22	6-17	2-8	8-8	-12	3	3
J. CollinsF · #20	29	22	9-10	3-3	1-1	-12	2	0
B. LopezC · #11	13	6	2-6	2-5	—	-17	1	0
J. HardenG · #1	34	18	7-15	1-6	3-3	-24	3	12
K. DunnG · #8	30	10	4-10	2-6	—	-12	4	6
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	16	6	2-4	2-4	—	-12	2	1
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	25	19	8-9	3-4	0-1	-10	4	2
I. ZubacC · #40	21	4	2-6	—	—	-13	7	1
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	6	0	0-1	—	—	-7	1	0
J. MillerG · #22	6	2	0-1	—	2-2	-7	0	0
K. BrownG · #24	6	4	1-1	—	2-2	-7	1	1
K. SandersG · #4	15	0	0-1	0-1	—	-15	1	0
C. ChristieG · #12	6	2	1-3	0-1	—	-7	1	0
Team		115	42-84	15-38	16-17		30	26

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

53-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-84

FG %

24-51

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-38

16-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 2-0

Nov 16

LAC118@

BOS121

Jan 4

BOS146@

LAC115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+11447%

LAC-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -1.5↗SpreadBet LAC -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat LAC 146-115. J. Brown led the way with 50 points and 5 assists. BOS outscored the other side 33-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

107 PTS · 23 REB · 21 AST

GS 90

Bench(6)

39 PTS · 23 REB · 9 AST

GS 45

LACstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 13 REB · 21 AST

GS 66

Bench(8)

37 PTS · 17 REB · 5 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS2nd Quarter · 10:04 · 47-31

+12pp→ 88% WP

Jordan Walsh · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)

BOS2nd Quarter · 7:57 · 51-35

+11pp→ 89% WP

Derrick White · makes driving layup

LAC3rd Quarter · 8:54 · 77-70

+12pp→ 26% WP

Derrick White · misses 13-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	42	29	42	33	146
LAC	28	35	36	16	115

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · LAC won 1

White 14

Collins 8

White 7

Harden 55

Brown 19

Walsh 61

Pritchard 12

Harden 4

BOS

LAC

Shooting comparison

BOS

LAC

55%

53-96

50%

42-84

47%

24-51

3PT

39%

15-38

84%

16-19

94%

16-17

Play-by-play · 426 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 146·LAC 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 146·LAC 115
Q4·20.6
Kobe Sanders bad pass turnover (Josh Minott steals)
·
BOS 146·LAC 115
Q4·28.6
Payton Pritchard makes driving layup
BOS 146·LAC 115
Q4·51.4
Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 144·LAC 115
Q4·51.4
Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 144·LAC 114
Q4·51.4
Baylor Scheierman shooting foul
BOS 144·LAC 113
Q4·1:07
Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive rebound
·
BOS 144·LAC 113
Q4·1:10
Payton Pritchard misses 9-foot two point shot
BOS 144·LAC 113
Q4·1:19
Josh Minott offensive rebound
BOS 144·LAC 113
Q4·1:23
Payton Pritchard misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
BOS 144·LAC 113
Q4·1:30
Jordan Walsh offensive rebound
BOS 144·LAC 113
Q4·1:33
Josh Minott misses 30-foot three point jumper
BOS 144·LAC 113
Q4·1:44
Kobe Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
·
BOS 144·LAC 113
Q4·1:44
Kobe Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
·
BOS 144·LAC 112
Q4·1:44
Hugo Gonzalez shooting foul
BOS 144·LAC 111
Q4·1:44
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
·
BOS 144·LAC 111
Q4·1:45
Cam Christie misses 26-foot three point jumper
BOS 144·LAC 111
Q4·2:05
Payton Pritchard makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 144·LAC 111
Q4·2:13
Kobe Brown personal foul
·
BOS 141·LAC 111
Q4·2:24
Kobe Sanders offensive foul turnover
BOS 141·LAC 111
Q4·2:24
Kobe Sanders offensive foul
BOS 141·LAC 111
Q4·2:34
Jordan Walsh makes tip shot
BOS 141·LAC 111
Q4·2:34
Jordan Walsh offensive rebound
BOS 139·LAC 111
Q4·2:36
Baylor Scheierman misses 23-foot three point jumper
BOS 139·LAC 111
Q4·2:44
Cam Christie makes driving layup (Kobe Brown assists)
· ·
BOS 139·LAC 111
Q4·2:51
Josh Minott enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 139·LAC 109
Q4·2:51
Jordan Walsh personal take foul
BOS 139·LAC 109
Q4·3:01
Payton Pritchard makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 139·LAC 109
Q4·3:10
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 136·LAC 109

Betting line

LAC -1.5·O/U 219.5·BOS +114/LAC -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into LA Clippers and beat them, 146–115. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS +1.5 cashed (LAC lost outright). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 41.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

LAC

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

114.2

PPG

114.9

113.9

24.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR