NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17TOR

ATL

17-20

117134

TOR

21-15

NBASat, Jan 3FinalSeriesTOR leads series 3-0VegasTOR -5.5

ATL · top performer

Dyson Daniels

G · #5

26.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Brandon Ingram

F · #3

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 15pp · 1st Quarter · 2:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	30	4	2-9	0-3	—	-16	3	4
J. JohnsonF · #1	37	30	10-21	4-9	6-9	-11	7	9
Z. RisacherF · #10	30	8	3-11	0-3	2-2	-9	7	0
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	36	31	10-19	6-11	5-5	-16	4	3
D. DanielsG · #5	34	20	9-13	0-1	2-2	-5	5	12
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	20	0	0-2	—	—	-3	4	1
A. NewellF · #14	8	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
K. WallaceG · #2	19	11	4-9	3-7	—	-13	3	1
C. HoustanG · #33	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
V. KrejciG · #27	23	13	4-6	4-4	1-1	-8	2	2
Team		117	42-91	17-39	16-19		36	32
DNP: M. Williams, L. Kennard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	34	29	11-15	1-2	6-6	+8	9	1
R. BarrettF · #9	30	29	11-19	4-8	3-4	+13	4	1
S. BarnesF · #4	32	20	8-14	—	4-5	+12	7	4
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	26	6	3-5	—	—	0	3	2
I. QuickleyG · #5	33	15	5-13	2-8	3-3	+20	2	7
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	32	13	5-10	1-5	2-2	+27	12	8
M. BambaC · #11	2	0	0-2	—	—	0	2	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	4	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	14	10	3-7	2-5	2-2	0	1	4
J. WalterG · #14	17	5	1-2	1-1	2-2	+1	2	1
A. MartinG · #55	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
G. DickG · #1	15	7	2-5	1-2	2-2	+9	6	0
Team		134	49-92	12-31	24-26		48	28
DNP: J. Battle, J. Mogbo, G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

42-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-92

FG %

17-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-31

16-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 3-0

Oct 22

TOR138@

ATL118

Nov 8

TOR109@

ATL97

Jan 4

ATL117@

TOR134today

Jan 6

ATL100@

TOR118

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+17037%

TOR-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -5.5↗SpreadBet TOR -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat ATL 134-117. B. Ingram paced them with 29 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. TOR outscored the other side 27-11 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 26 REB · 28 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 22

TORstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 83

Bench(7)

35 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR1st Quarter · 2:37 · 24-28

+15pp→ 70% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · bad pass turnover (Scottie Barnes steals)

ATL3rd Quarter · 40.4 · 104-107

+11pp→ 36% WP

Jamal Shead · out of bounds bad pass turnover

TOR3rd Quarter · 0.4 · 106-107

+11pp→ 59% WP

Scottie Barnes · blocks Jalen Johnson 's 52-foot heave jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	29	41	36	11	117
TOR	35	42	30	27	134

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · TOR won 3

Krejci 7

Ingram 12

Daniels 12

Barrett 10

Alexander-Walker 13

Ingram 9

Johnson 6

Barrett 12

ATL

TOR

Shooting comparison

ATL

TOR

46%

42-91

53%

49-92

44%

17-39

3PT

39%

12-31

84%

16-19

92%

24-26

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·17.4
Mo Bamba defensive rebound
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·19.3
Zaccharie Risacher misses two point shot
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·30.4
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·30.4
Mo Bamba misses two point shot
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·31.1
Mo Bamba offensive rebound
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·34.2
Mo Bamba misses driving layup
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·47.4
Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·49.9
Caleb Houstan misses running pullup jump shot
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·52.8
Keaton Wallace defensive rebound
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·54.6
Ja'Kobe Walter misses finger roll layup
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:02
Gradey Dick defensive rebound
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:05
Keaton Wallace misses 28-foot three point jumper
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:23
Alijah Martin enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:23
Jamal Shead out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:33
Caleb Houstan enters the game for Vit Krejci
·
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:33
Asa Newell enters the game for Jalen Johnson
·
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:33
Mo Bamba enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:33
Ochai Agbaji enters the game for RJ Barrett
·
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:33
Gradey Dick enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:33
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:33
Jamal Shead enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:33
Vit Krejci personal foul
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:35
Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·1:38
Zaccharie Risacher misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·2:00
RJ Barrett makes 2-foot two point shot
ATL 117·TOR 134
Q4·2:11
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
ATL 117·TOR 132
Q4·2:16
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 117·TOR 132
Q4·2:16
Keaton Wallace enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
ATL 117·TOR 132

Betting line

TOR -5.5·O/U 232.5·ATL +170/TOR -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Atlanta Hawks, 134–117.

TOR -5.5 cashed (won by 17). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

TOR

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

29.2

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR