NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5POR

POR

16-20

115110

25-10

NBASat, Jan 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -8.5

POR · top performer

Deni Avdija

F · #8

25.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Luke Kornet

C · #7

25.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 31pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:39

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	36	20	7-11	5-9	1-2	0	8	1
K. MurrayF · #24	27	6	2-5	2-4	—	+6	3	1
D. AvdijaF · #8	39	29	9-22	3-6	8-11	+10	10	10
D. ClinganC · #23	34	24	9-12	3-5	3-6	+1	12	4
S. SharpeG · #17	28	6	3-16	0-4	—	+6	3	3
Bench
Y. HansenC · #16	11	2	0-1	—	2-2	+1	2	1
C. LoveG · #2	28	16	6-13	3-9	1-4	-4	5	2
S. CissokoG · #91	22	7	2-6	2-5	1-2	+4	6	1
R. RupertG · #21	15	5	2-5	1-3	—	+1	2	1
Team		115	40-91	19-45	16-27		51	24
DNP: J. Grant, R. Williams III, D. Reath, M. Thybulle, J. Cooke, B. Wesley

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	32	14	5-11	2-7	2-2	+4	4	1
J. ChampagnieF · #30	33	20	8-14	4-9	—	-4	10	4
L. KornetC · #7	31	23	10-12	—	3-3	+4	8	3
D. FoxG · #4	35	19	7-14	2-4	3-4	-12	6	4
S. CastleG · #5	37	16	5-11	0-1	6-7	-4	5	9
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	14	5	2-9	0-5	1-1	-1	3	2
L. Waters IIIF · #43	6	0	0-2	0-1	—	+2	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	24	5	1-6	—	3-4	-2	8	1
C. BryantF · #11	5	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-7	1	0
D. HarperG · #2	23	6	2-12	2-3	—	-5	3	3
Team		110	40-93	10-31	20-23		48	27
DNP: J. Sochan, D. Jones Garcia, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin, S. Umude

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

Home

40-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-93

FG %

19-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-31

16-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-23

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA wins series 4-1

Apr 20

POR98@

SA111

Apr 22

POR106@

SA103

Apr 25

SA120@

POR108

Apr 26

SA114@

POR93

Apr 29

POR95@

SA114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+26028%

SA-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -8.5↗SpreadBet SA -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat SA 115-110. D. Avdija stuffed the line with 29 PTS, 10 REB, and 10 AST. POR outscored the other side 35-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 36 REB · 19 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST

GS 25

SAstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST

GS 86

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR3rd Quarter · 1:40 · 81-80

+18pp→ 57% WP

Dylan Harper · shooting foul

SA3rd Quarter · 2:39 · 81-77

+31pp→ 41% WP

Dylan Harper · blocks Yang Hansen's tip shot

POR4th Quarter · 49.6 · 114-110

+18pp→ 82% WP

Deni Avdija · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	35	20	32	28	115
SA	24	27	29	30	110

Period scoring

POR won 2 · SA won 2

Clingan 14

Kornet 6

Avdija 10

Champagnie 10

Avdija 7

Harper 15

Avdija 8

Fox 22

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

44%

40-91

43%

40-93

42%

19-45

3PT

32%

10-31

59%

16-27

87%

20-23

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 115·SA 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 115·SA 110
Q4·3.0
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
POR 115·SA 110
−0.6pp
Q4·5.2
Julian Champagnie misses 28-foot three point jumper
POR 115·SA 110
−4pp
Q4·13.0
Caleb Love makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 115·SA 110
Q4·13.0
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 114·SA 110
Q4·13.0
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
POR 114·SA 110
+2pp
Q4·13.0
Caleb Love misses free throw 1 of 2
POR 114·SA 110
+1pp
Q4·13.0
Keldon Johnson enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
POR 114·SA 110
Q4·13.0
Luke Kornet personal foul
POR 114·SA 110
−3pp
Q4·13.0
Caleb Love defensive rebound
POR 114·SA 110
−2pp
Q4·14.8
De'Aaron Fox misses 6-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
POR 114·SA 110
−7pp
Q4·21.7
Spurs Full timeout
POR 114·SA 110
Q4·21.7
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
POR 114·SA 110
Q4·22.7
Caleb Love misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 114·SA 110
+7pp
Q4·22.7
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
POR 114·SA 110
+2pp
Q4·22.7
Caleb Love misses free throw 1 of 2
POR 114·SA 110
+2pp
Q4·22.7
De'Aaron Fox personal take foulBIG MOMENT
POR 114·SA 110
−6pp
Q4·31.8
Caleb Love defensive rebound
POR 114·SA 110
−2pp
Q4·34.7
Harrison Barnes misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
POR 114·SA 110
−6pp
Q4·38.3
Harrison Barnes offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 114·SA 110
+5pp
Q4·39.2
Luke Kornet misses tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
POR 114·SA 110
−5pp
Q4·39.2
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
POR 114·SA 110
+5pp
Q4·41.3
Stephon Castle misses 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
POR 114·SA 110
−6pp
Q4·49.6
Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
POR 114·SA 110
−18pp
Q4·1:09
Trail Blazers defensive team rebound
POR 111·SA 110
−3pp
Q4·1:10
De'Aaron Fox misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
POR 111·SA 110
−8pp
Q4·1:14
Deni Avdija bad pass turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 111·SA 110
+11pp
Q4·1:18
Deni Avdija offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 111·SA 110
−8pp
Q4·1:18
Luke Kornet blocks Deni Avdija 's 3-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
POR 111·SA 110
+8pp

Betting line

SA -8.5·O/U 234.5·POR +260/SA -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 115–110. Decided by 5.

POR +8.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Ja MorantPOR
19.6± 8.8high
Damian LillardPOR
19.2± 8.2high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high
Branden CarlsonPOR
0.9± 1.6high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.6

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Team pages

Portland Trail BlazersSan Antonio Spurs

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR